naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The 10-page document, dated Oct. 13, 2023, bears the logo of the Intelligence Ministry — a small governmental body that produces policy research and shares its proposals with intelligence agencies, the army, and other ministries. It assesses three options regarding the future of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in the framework of the current war, and recommends a full population transfer as its preferred course of action. It also calls on Israel to enlist the international community in support of this endeavor. The document, whose authenticity was confirmed by the ministry, has been translated into English in full here on +972.
The existence of the document does not necessarily indicate that its recommendations are being considered by Israel’s defense establishment. Despite its name, the Intelligence Ministry is not directly responsible for any intelligence body, but rather independently prepares studies and policy papers that are distributed to the Israeli government and security agencies for review, but are not binding.
The document recommends that Israel act to “evacuate the civilian population to Sinai” during the war; establish tent cities and later more permanent cities in the northern Sinai that will absorb the expelled population; and then create “a sterile zone of several kilometers … within Egypt, and [prevent] the return of the population to activities/residences near the border with Israel.” At the same time, governments around the world, led by the United States, must be mobilized to implement the move.
The transfer plan is divided into several stages. In the first stage, action must be taken so that the population of Gaza “evacuates south,” while the air strikes focus on the northern Gaza Strip. In the second stage, a ground incursion into Gaza will begin, leading to the occupation of the entire Strip from north to south, and the “cleansing of the underground bunkers of Hamas fighters.” Concurrently with the re-occupation of Gaza, Palestinian civilians will be moved into Egyptian territory, and not be allowed to return. “It is important to leave the travel routes to the south open to enable the evacuation of the civilian population toward Rafah,” the document states. According to an official in the Intelligence Ministry, the ministry’s personnel stand behind these recommendations. The source stressed that the ministry’s research is “not based on military intelligence” and serves only as a basis for discussions within the government.
This is a big step and I'm surprised I've only seen it retweeted once by Adam Tooze and nowhere else. I'm sure it's big on the Arabic internet, but I'm not plugged in to Muslim conspriacy theories. Obviously ideas like this have been mooted around theMotte and everywhere else, but for it come from the Israeli government is new. Thoughts:
-- For this to be planned doesn't mean it is really going to happen. I'm sure somewhere in the Pentagon there are plans put together, if only as exercises, for invading Canada, Mexico, and Jamaica. This could all mean nothing. That is probably not going to be very persuasive to people who already figured that Israel wanted to do this. Ironically, once again in this conflict, I expect the loudest voices telling me that this won't happen and isn't real to be those who have previously advocated for exactly the policy of ethnic cleansing. A new application of the good ol' law of merited impossibility.
-- The paper is dated 10/13. I've lost track of time quite a bit lately for personal reasons, when exactly did Israel begin bombing Northern Gaza and encouraging civilians to remove South? Because it sure looks like they're following the plan outlined in step 1 of Option C: move civilians south. That is going to be viewed as strong proof by Muslims that this is going on; and it is going to lead to tragedy. This document is going to be used to encourage Gazan civilians not to evacuate, which is going to lead to Hamas having a much thicker human shield, which is going to lead to thousands upon thousands of extra deaths. Regardless of its validity, the release of this document is unquestionably a tragedy.
-- The leak could also be a test balloon to see just how bad public reaction to this is. "We're not doing it, we're just brainstorming, no bad ideas, just talking about it...unless?"
-- I'm unfamiliar with the geography of the region, how habitable is the Sinai? My impression from the Bible and occasional references in history is that it ain't great, that Egypt has essentially no use for it beyond controlling the canal. Can you build an actual functioning city in the Sinai? Or is it just an open air prison, by which I mean the population can't leave and would be permanently dependent on imports of food/water? What bribe would Egypt require to open/allow/maintain this prison? Can you trust Egyptian jailers to keep the prisoners in, or will this lead to injecting a million radicals into Egypt's population, probably destabilizing the secular government there? A lot of people like to say "why not just turn Gaza into Singapore?" but is there any realistic universe of economic development in a brand new city in the Sinai?
-- The paper itself...seems pretty persuasive? It compares the De-Hamas-ification of Gaza to the DeNazification plans in Germany after WWII, which took at least seven years of occupation by Allied powers. Arguably the occupation of Germany hasn't ended yet. Seven years of occupation in Gaza would be giving every angry Arab a chance to take a pot-shot at a Jew, every day, for seven years. And gives Hezbollah all the time in the world to plan a Northern front. And PA rule of Gaza has failed before, so maybe it comes right down to where we started. A Final Solution to the Gaza problem has obvious rational appeal. But partition and resettlement is never achieved easily, and never without significant deaths. From a perspective that privileges Israeli Jewish lives over any other value, Option C is probably the right call...on the other hand...
-- Option C is likely to join our collective vocabulary alongside The Final Solution, the Gulag Archipelago, The Situation has Developed Not Necessarily to Our Advantage, Naqba, Pogrom. The expulsion of a population the size of metro Philadelphia is going to be a huge human tragedy inflicting great human suffering on actual people. This suffering, death, impoverishment, and destruction is going to inspire feelings across the Dar Al Islam. While the paper is optimistic about achieving support from the Saudis, Egyptians etc I see no way that the normalization of relations will move forward after Option C.
I don't mean to be an /r/readanotherbook fashion victim, but the situation in Gaza is so obviously to me the plot of Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country. The big event is the potential for peace between the gulf Arabs and Israel, which would be a huge step towards a permanent and sustainable end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. And Hamas' 10/7 attacks were designed, by Hamas, to torpedo that diplimatic process between SA and Israel. The goal of Hamas' attacks was to provoke Israeli reaction, that will make it impossible for the Saudis et al to accept Israeli diplomacy. And the Israelis, in their infinite wisdom, are deciding to do exactly what Hamas hoped they would do, and hoping that if they do it harder and better than Hamas thought they would do it that they'll win. That seems like a fool's bargain. Blessed are the peacemakers. We may have trouble living in the undiscovered country that is peace, but that future should be the one we're striving for, and I'm not sure that Option C leaves much room for it any time soon.
Spongebob-grade thinking: since we're already being practical but evil in talking up mass civilian displacements, why not Simply(tm) move the population of Gaza to the West Bank, annex Gaza, and freeze Area C settlement in place or abandon Area C? This removes all need for Area C settler shenanigans, enables mass filtration and registration, re-establishes Israel as both massively powerful in the region and comparatively generous about it in tangible terms that an honor culture understands, moves Hamas militants and sympathizers into an area both more amenable to policing and a population with a chance of assimilating them into prosperous coexistence, simplifies the security situation by removing an unfriendly border...
This is, of course, an evil act in many ways, and I don't endorse it as a plan of action, but it's been bouncing around my head and I wanted it out. Why's it impractical and more expensive than necessary?
Because Area C is a huge strategic weak point for Israel and essentially needs to be under de facto occupation for Israel to have any strategic depth. It has a much larger border with Israel than Gaza and - unlike Gaza, has a land border with Jordan where smuggling routes are arguably easier than Gaza’s with Egypt (ie you don’t have to traverse the entire Sinai).
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Notes -
Leaked Document from Internal Israeli Government Think Tank lays out a plan to remove the entire population of Gaza to the Sinai peninsula as the final aim of the war. Hebrew Source here which I can't vouch for beyond google translate. Full document here
This is a big step and I'm surprised I've only seen it retweeted once by Adam Tooze and nowhere else. I'm sure it's big on the Arabic internet, but I'm not plugged in to Muslim conspriacy theories. Obviously ideas like this have been mooted around theMotte and everywhere else, but for it come from the Israeli government is new. Thoughts:
-- For this to be planned doesn't mean it is really going to happen. I'm sure somewhere in the Pentagon there are plans put together, if only as exercises, for invading Canada, Mexico, and Jamaica. This could all mean nothing. That is probably not going to be very persuasive to people who already figured that Israel wanted to do this. Ironically, once again in this conflict, I expect the loudest voices telling me that this won't happen and isn't real to be those who have previously advocated for exactly the policy of ethnic cleansing. A new application of the good ol' law of merited impossibility.
-- The paper is dated 10/13. I've lost track of time quite a bit lately for personal reasons, when exactly did Israel begin bombing Northern Gaza and encouraging civilians to remove South? Because it sure looks like they're following the plan outlined in step 1 of Option C: move civilians south. That is going to be viewed as strong proof by Muslims that this is going on; and it is going to lead to tragedy. This document is going to be used to encourage Gazan civilians not to evacuate, which is going to lead to Hamas having a much thicker human shield, which is going to lead to thousands upon thousands of extra deaths. Regardless of its validity, the release of this document is unquestionably a tragedy.
-- The leak could also be a test balloon to see just how bad public reaction to this is. "We're not doing it, we're just brainstorming, no bad ideas, just talking about it...unless?"
-- I'm unfamiliar with the geography of the region, how habitable is the Sinai? My impression from the Bible and occasional references in history is that it ain't great, that Egypt has essentially no use for it beyond controlling the canal. Can you build an actual functioning city in the Sinai? Or is it just an open air prison, by which I mean the population can't leave and would be permanently dependent on imports of food/water? What bribe would Egypt require to open/allow/maintain this prison? Can you trust Egyptian jailers to keep the prisoners in, or will this lead to injecting a million radicals into Egypt's population, probably destabilizing the secular government there? A lot of people like to say "why not just turn Gaza into Singapore?" but is there any realistic universe of economic development in a brand new city in the Sinai?
-- The paper itself...seems pretty persuasive? It compares the De-Hamas-ification of Gaza to the DeNazification plans in Germany after WWII, which took at least seven years of occupation by Allied powers. Arguably the occupation of Germany hasn't ended yet. Seven years of occupation in Gaza would be giving every angry Arab a chance to take a pot-shot at a Jew, every day, for seven years. And gives Hezbollah all the time in the world to plan a Northern front. And PA rule of Gaza has failed before, so maybe it comes right down to where we started. A Final Solution to the Gaza problem has obvious rational appeal. But partition and resettlement is never achieved easily, and never without significant deaths. From a perspective that privileges Israeli Jewish lives over any other value, Option C is probably the right call...on the other hand...
-- Option C is likely to join our collective vocabulary alongside The Final Solution, the Gulag Archipelago, The Situation has Developed Not Necessarily to Our Advantage, Naqba, Pogrom. The expulsion of a population the size of metro Philadelphia is going to be a huge human tragedy inflicting great human suffering on actual people. This suffering, death, impoverishment, and destruction is going to inspire feelings across the Dar Al Islam. While the paper is optimistic about achieving support from the Saudis, Egyptians etc I see no way that the normalization of relations will move forward after Option C.
I don't mean to be an /r/readanotherbook fashion victim, but the situation in Gaza is so obviously to me the plot of Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country. The big event is the potential for peace between the gulf Arabs and Israel, which would be a huge step towards a permanent and sustainable end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. And Hamas' 10/7 attacks were designed, by Hamas, to torpedo that diplimatic process between SA and Israel. The goal of Hamas' attacks was to provoke Israeli reaction, that will make it impossible for the Saudis et al to accept Israeli diplomacy. And the Israelis, in their infinite wisdom, are deciding to do exactly what Hamas hoped they would do, and hoping that if they do it harder and better than Hamas thought they would do it that they'll win. That seems like a fool's bargain. Blessed are the peacemakers. We may have trouble living in the undiscovered country that is peace, but that future should be the one we're striving for, and I'm not sure that Option C leaves much room for it any time soon.
Spongebob-grade thinking: since we're already being practical but evil in talking up mass civilian displacements, why not Simply(tm) move the population of Gaza to the West Bank, annex Gaza, and freeze Area C settlement in place or abandon Area C? This removes all need for Area C settler shenanigans, enables mass filtration and registration, re-establishes Israel as both massively powerful in the region and comparatively generous about it in tangible terms that an honor culture understands, moves Hamas militants and sympathizers into an area both more amenable to policing and a population with a chance of assimilating them into prosperous coexistence, simplifies the security situation by removing an unfriendly border...
This is, of course, an evil act in many ways, and I don't endorse it as a plan of action, but it's been bouncing around my head and I wanted it out. Why's it impractical and more expensive than necessary?
Because Area C is a huge strategic weak point for Israel and essentially needs to be under de facto occupation for Israel to have any strategic depth. It has a much larger border with Israel than Gaza and - unlike Gaza, has a land border with Jordan where smuggling routes are arguably easier than Gaza’s with Egypt (ie you don’t have to traverse the entire Sinai).
No. The land border is in Area A, meaning direct Israeli occupation.I got the Areas wrong againMore options
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