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So, granted the liberal/left leaning narrative that the recent wave of election integrity laws is true(which I have my doubts about), should we expect to see republicans outperform their polls in states with those laws but not necessarily states absent them?
Or to put it another way, if the real purpose of election integrity is to benefit republicans, then we should expect a pattern of polling errors benefitting republicans in states where voter ID laws already exist, particularly the recent stricter wave. And that furthermore those polling errors should be larger than the ones in place in states lacking the recent wave of election integrity laws. So it follows that if, as in the last election, we see polls as broadly accurate in the sun belt and biased in favor of democrats in the frost belt, that would constitute evidence against election integrity laws tilting the playing field, would it not?
This seems seriously confounded. Personally, I would put money on the size and reach of the "shy MAGA" effect increasing, rather than decreasing this election. Further, midterm elections are always odd in terms of mobilization and turnout. Further further, the Democrats do a very good job of goosing enthusiasm in certain places at certain times through the use of pop-up NGO/activist movements. I would hesitate to draw a conclusion about the effect of voting integrity measures from this one election alone, especially given that the most recent comparator elections - 2020 - were extremely irregular in terms of voting mechanics and enthusiasm and thus not likely a useful comparator for anything
If the wave of election integrity bills have the effect that the media says they do, then we should see the Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona GOP outperform the polls by higher margins than the Wisconsin GOP, even in an environment where the polls are biased in favor of democrats.
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