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La-la-la, can't hear you.
Honestly, "Christian God not real!" and you know this how? Oh, Science, blah blah blah, let's argue this out with the same arguments for the past three hundred years.
That's not a good example - they were right for the wrong reasons? they were right but didn't know how right they were? they were right because I know they were right because I don't believe in Christian God?
I'm sure society will be very different in 50 years time. I've already seen huge changes in the society I grew up in, over the past 40 years. But that does not mean that someone proposing a 'decoupled' idea is right; am I to 'emotionally uncouple' and go "well back when I was in my 30s it was generally frowned upon to rape 6 year olds, but hey today is a different era and let's not cover our ears as the world changes!"
Evolution by natural selection is easily the most important 'theological' thing to ever happen, it (together with history) explains every impulse that God is claimed to have given to man by independent choice. Every unexplainable natural phenomenon used to be attributable to God, and his role today in that front is minimal due to science - even today's Christians still claim various modern miracles (and if you investigate one of them deeply enough, it inevitably collapses). Like, how does Christianity relate to AGI? It doesn't! Does this mean AGI won't happen?
It means that some of them are in some parts right, and if you don't decouple you'll not be able to notice that
Your question can be broken down into two parts (I'm assuming AGI means "Artificial General Intelligence").
(1) How does Christianity relate to AGI?
On the same basis it relates to all other creations of humanity and the way we conduct ourselves, are we trying to make a heaven on earth that will instead result in a hell on earth?
(2) Does this mean AGI won't happen?
Yes. But that's because I don't believe all the hopes/fears about Fairy Godmother AI and Paperclippers. We'll get machine intelligence of a kind, but we won't get Colossus or HAL or the Culture AIs. What we'll get will be even more of the same that we're seeing now - using AGI to fake up term papers etc., to generate articles for online and mainstream media, to assist scammers in scamming, and used as a very blunt sorting instrument by government. White collar jobs will now be as precarious as blue collar jobs have been. But we're not going to get the Singularity, post-scarcity, or even dystopias. Just more of the same, even faster.
The argument is incredibly compact. Do you believe that 1) computers can't have the intelligence and independent action of humans, despite obvious material paths to accomplishing that we currently are aggressively pursuing or that 2) we won't unleash that intelligence and independent action, despite the truly enormous potential individual and collective benefits of doing so?
Like, a million years ago there weren't humans (homo sapien). We evolved. Whether or not you believe in god, the fossil record and DNA clearly demonstrates that. Imagine a million years from now. If we create things smarter and more capable than ourselves, why won't they end up on top in a million years, in the same way we did?
And how long does it look like it'll take? A thousand seems more plausible than a million, given computers weren't a thing 200 years ago. A hundred or two seems more plausible than a thousand. And suddenly it's an issue for your grandchildren, at least.
(1) Yup (2) Also yup - "unleashing intelligence and independent action" my left foot, there won't be any happy-clappy choice about it: it will be "use AI or your business is not competitive", and as always, AI will be to make the rich richer and nothing to do with "every single existing human will suddenly be rich and happy". AI will be used to nudge us into buying more crap to make big businesses even more profitable. That's the path, why do you think Microsoft etc. are working so hard on it? To make a Third World Indian peasant farmer into the equivalent of a Californian middle class tech employee?
To quote an anecdote about Irish political history, "Ireland will get its freedom and you still be breaking stones".
We got here - metal towers that scrape the sky, man's foot touching the moon, seeing the faces and hearing the voices of men ten thousand miles away, a billion peoples' labor acting in a decentralized yet coordinated dance - purely by human intelligence and capability. The specific structures of morality, governance, economy, and society that we imagine are fixed were created by us and for our purposes. They have changed, and they will change.
If we create something smarter than us, why won't it do the same - create its own structures, that wn't involve us? Now, you describe accurately what microsoft wants. But Microsoft doesn't get everything it wants. And microsoft only wants what it wants because those specific social and material technologies make them powerful. What makes microsoft want money or powerful computers? They lend Microsoft and employees power, influence, capability. What'll give Microsoft even more of that? Creating AGI. Giving AGI more power and influence. And then the AGI can, uh, do that itself. And then?
500 years ago, "capitalism" and "computers" didn't exist. Why do you expect computers and capitalism to last for another 500 years, "just as it's always been". "consumerism" and "profitable joint stock corporations", that's just how it is, haha. Nothing caused that, and whatever caused it certainly can't change, we can't lose our position as kings of the world.
It's 50s Golden Age SF techno-optimism still in play. We got the future, but not the flying cars and space colonies they imagined. I don't expect AI to go as they imagined, either. 500 years from now, our descendants could be back to the stage of the Golden Horde (if all the doom and gloom about climate, resources, population, etc. happens).
I'm not a forecaster. I have no idea what the 26th century will be like. But I'm pretty sure in the short term, by 2050 we will not all be living Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism lifestyles. Back in the 70s, forecasting the future was a very popular notion for the media, experts, and amateurs alike. It was expected that given automation, etc, in the 21st Century (our days) we'll all be on four hour work weeks and have so much leisure, we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves.
Increasing automation did not lead to "I can do all my week's work in four hours"; instead it meant "now you can do extra work to be extra productive and make extra profit". People have the dream of the fairy godmother machine that will mean we don't have to work and will be rich and comfortable and the machine will solve all our problems for us, I don't think that's ever going to happen.
We got something better, something even the grand masters could not imagine - all knowledge of the world at our fingertips, at any place and any time. No comparison to some shitty spaceships operated by slide rules.
Anyway, if you remember shiny happy sciencefictional future, you are really ancient or fan of yoghurt commercials.
I was promised nothing than total enslavement by big governments and big corporations or total death by nuclear war, famine, plague, pollution, robots, aliens or mutants.
https://archive.is/qqlAs
Not always unsuccesful.
See famous predictions about year 2000 by thermonuclear man Herman Kahn from 1967 and their evaluation from 2002.
https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/s0040-1625(02)00186-5
Inexpensive high-capacity, worldwide, regional, and local (home and business) communication (perhaps using satellites, lasers, and light pipes)
Pervasive business use of computers
Direct broadcasts from satellites to home receivers
Multiple applications for lasers and masers for sensing, measuring, communication, cutting, welding, power transmission, illumination, and destructive (defensive)
Extensive use of high-altitude cameras for mapping, prospecting, census, and geological investigations)
Extensive and intensive centralization (or automatic interconnection) of current and past personal and business information in high-speed data processors
Other widespread use of computers for intellectual and professional assistance (translation, traffic control, literature search, design, and analysis)
Personal ‘‘pagers’’ (perhaps even two-way pocket phones)
Simple inexpensive home video recording and playing
Practical home and business use of ‘‘wired’’ video communication for both telephone and TV (possibly including retrieval of taped material from libraries) and rapid transmission and reception of facsimile
edit: links unscrambled
What a great list, thanks.
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