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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 27, 2023

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Fertility has been dropping steadily since the early 19th century across the developed world. The sexual revolution at worst accelerated an ongoing trend, but if you look at the graph even that doesn't seem to be true, since the rate of decline since the 60s is actually lower than it was prior to the 40s - 50s baby boom

On the other hand we still have subgroups that maintain above replacement fertility, and they tend to not be the ones that leaned into the sexual revolution.

Were people less depressed in 1932? 1832? Obviously most people would have said 'no'

I don't like self-reports either. If they're dropped from all of sociology, we can dismiss them when discussing the sexual revolution as well, but not before.

On the other hand we still have subgroups that maintain above replacement fertility, and they tend to not be the ones that leaned into the sexual revolution.

Falling fertility seems to go hand in hand with both technological development and political/social liberalization. It's possible that only one is responsible for the effect, but since they almost never occur independently, it's hard to tell. If we all collectively decided to adopt the material and social circumstances of 19th century Russian peasants maybe we could get fertility rates back up, but this is exactly my problem with the "modernity is terrible because fertility rates are falling" argument. It is apparently the case that pre-modern society was able to reproduce itself, but I and a lot of people think pre-modern society was horrible in just about every respect and not worth reproducing. As far as I'm concerned, we either have to figure out some secret third thing that will solve falling fertility (whether it be artificial wombs or whatever) or resign ourselves to extinction. Either of those are preferable in my eyes to a return to pre-modern existence, though obviously the first would be better.

If they're dropped from all of sociology, we can dismiss them when discussing the sexual revolution as well, but not before.

I don't want to defend all or even most of sociology.

As far as I'm concerned, we either have to figure out some secret third thing that will solve falling fertility (whether it be artificial wombs or whatever) or resign ourselves to extinction. Either of those are preferable in my eyes to a return to pre-modern existence, though obviously the first would be better.

It really is not that hard to make babies. Why would artificial wombs be needed?

resign ourselves to extinction

Natural selection is making room for the ones that can figure it out. Like this bus driver in Japan.

and a lot of people think pre-modern society was horrible in just about every respect and not worth reproducing.

Don't then. If you're not reproducing the future state of humanity is not really your business.

It really is not that hard to make babies.

Apparently it is.

Natural selection is making room for the ones that can figure it out.

Most of the high fertility subgroups are subsidized by larger, less fertile society. Color me skeptical of the 'Amish/Haredim will inherit the earth' scenarios.

If you're not reproducing the future state of humanity is not really your business.

I'm a sperm donor, so I'll have some descendants running around.

I'm a sperm donor, so I'll have some descendants running around.

So you care about the future state of fertility out of care for your descendants but you don't care enough to actually help raise them?

Most of the high fertility subgroups are subsidized by larger, less fertile society. Color me skeptical of the 'Amish/Haredim will inherit the earth' scenarios.

What other scenarios do you have?

People who don't have kids are not suddenly going to muster the courage to because Elon Musk came out with an artificial womb. Innovations in social engineering so that if you have a kid and they just up and die for whatever reason like you were too busy watching Youtube shorts then it's no big deal would go a longer way I suppose.

There was that one incident of some scientist woman who was too wrapped up in her stressful and important duties that she forgot to take out a young child out of a car and ended up losing it. This is probably what's keeping a lot of more-educated people out of parenting.

So you care about the future state of fertility out of care for your descendants but you don't care enough to actually help raise them?

I've always had kind of a niggling, I guess atavistic drive to propagate my genetics and would feel sort of guilty about terminating my 'line', which is why I jumped through all the hoops to donate (well that and the payment). But no I have no interest in raising kids.

People who don't have kids are not suddenly going to muster the courage to because Elon Musk came out with an artificial womb.

We could probably just pay people to raise them in Brave New World style barracks or something honestly.

We could probably just pay people to raise them in Brave New World style barracks or something honestly.

I've been following this thread with interest and I feel like you've been holding your own fairly well in the face of multiple onslaughts. Here, however, you undo what I imagined was a fairly internally consistent, rational point of view (nevertheless quite different from my own, but compelling) and reveal a certain immaturity about what the hell you're talking about.

This was (mostly) a joke. I do hope technology will come to at least our aid, if not our total salvation, but I’m dreaming more of automation than BNW.

Fair enough.