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If the Ukrainians do end up verging toward cultural and ethnic extinction, I wonder how this will affect the decision-making of other low fertility nations that neighbor great powers. Will Taiwan quickly decide that standing up against China isn’t in their actual interest? Could a joint Chinese / NK force influence South Korea’s sovereignty? Etc. It seems that anyone who has survival in mind (let alone thriving) will recalculate how much they actually value sovereignty over capitulation. But then again, maybe the leaders of these countries simply don’t value “peoplehood” and have already made plans to send their families to America if things go sour.
But China is in a demographic slump. Actually quite a bad one.
Sure, maybe Taiwan would never recover long-term from a war to prevent Chinese invasion. But it's not like China has young men to spare by sending them to to killed by the boatload as they surely would be. They have way too few young men compared to the number of older people. With no war at all they will suffer from the demographic time bomb they've built.
China has a huge male surplus among the military age population, though. I feel like that changes the calculus somewhat.
Besides, low fertility rates didn’t stop Russia from starting a war of attrition with its neighbor.
But they really don't have a surplus male military aged population. Those young men are on the hook for caring for their parents and grandparents. Each boatload of these "surplus" men sunk to the bottom of the Taiwan Straight is a lot of Chinese families that just got wiped out and have no one to support them in old age.
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