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So, perhaps this too much of a war question, rather than a culture war one, but I'm having trouble understanding why Iran is launching attacks on random cargo ships in the Red Sea via proxies in Yemen, and now apparently directly https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-67811929 .
Ok, at least some of the vessels are Israeli linked, and they're hitting at US warships, but my confusion is what this hopes to achieve. Operation Preying Mantis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis seems an apt concern for the Iranians as a repeat: they cant hope to exert serious pressure on Israel's economy, and the moment they sink or damage a warship they're getting hit hard surely? And is it earning them any friends?
Meanwhile Hezbolah is Iranian backed and maybe directly controlled, and has done little in the current conflict. If you want to apply pressure to Israel, isnt that the way, especially given that Hezbolah has resources Hamas does not and could seriously threaten another front that would need actual Israeli resources. Iran isnt going all out with its assets, or the assets in cases are refusing to for self preservation.
So why hit ships? Is it really all they can do? Do they assume the US cant respond? Maybe it earns them some respect from the muslim world for standing up, but it just seems... odd. I'm not exactly Bismark, but I'm clearly missing something.
The missile from Iran directly is interesting and would be a serious escalation if the result of a change in official policy. Of course it might not be official policy. One of the problems with pushing propaganda so heavily to buttress the alleged moral authority of your government is that your men are liable to believe it.
Sure, many Iranians seem opposed to their government’s policy on Hamas and the Houthis, but the IRGC is the best-funded and most loyal-to-the-revolution part of the Iranian state apparatus; it’s also more religious, I’ve heard that quite a few more senior commanders are committed Shia scholars of the Ayatollah’s theory. It’s possible this was a rogue action by a particularly zealous commander.
But in a sense it is an issue, it’s difficult when you build credibility on an issue for decades and then, when that issue finally comes to a head, you do nothing (and indeed resolutely deny you knew your proxy was on the attack). The Houthis, Hamas, even Hezbollah are funded in substantial part by the Iranian state, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have their own firm religious beliefs that can conflict with the often more pragmatic preferences of the Iranian elite.
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