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zataomm  4mo ago (text post)   5357 thread views

Colorado Supreme Court Thread

Link to the decision

I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.

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I'm not sure I fully understand the potential consequences for this decision - like, what are the odds that this decision will lead to some extremely bad outside side effects (like eg. armed protests, insurrections, civil war)?

I'm sketching this out, feel free to iron man, something like there are significant write-in ballots, they don't get counted, and as a consequence, the US sees organized armed revolt?

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like trying to prevent a populist candidate from running via technicalities is not the most effective option?

I think major violent unrest is pretty unlikely. My expectation is that the Supreme Court will make a definitive ruling one way or the other and Trump will either be on the ballot everywhere or nowhere (and if nowhere, then the GOP will successfully organize to replace him with DeSantis or Haley). No matter what happens some people will be pissed off, but they will bitch and moan and get over it without drawing any significant amount of blood. I could see irate Trump supporters throwing the election to Biden via write-in campaign that splits the GOP vote though.

If violent protest were to occur, I would expect it to be in response to Trump being imprisoned rather than because of the 14th Amendment issue.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like trying to prevent a populist candidate from running via technicalities is not the most effective option?

"No trying to overthrow the government" is not a technicality.

"No trying to overthrow the government" is not a technicality.

I read through the 14th amendment and thought this was pretty much cut and dry myself. However, after discussing it with my SO, there is the problem that he has not been convicted of anything yet. Also, even if we were to say "Giving Aid and Comfort" -- well, explicitly he hasn't given money or legal aid to them, right?

So, in a court of law, is there sufficient condition met for the man to be excluded by 14th Amendment prior to him being convicted of this? It seems the Supreme court would probably throw all these out on straight constitutional grounds, no?

If he is convicted, though, whole different story. No questions, 14th amendment excludes him outright.

The problem is that Colorado law requires invalid candidates to be removed from its ballots. It gives a timeline and procedure for making this happen via a lawsuit and a judge. As you observe, if Trump had been convicted (say, after his impeachment), the suit could just cite that.

Since he wasn’t, though, the Colorado court is in a bind. They are required to make a decision, which means they need someone to make a finding of fact. But other states are not necessarily so bound. I think this makes it really hard for the Supreme Court to affect other states. Finding that Colorado’s law violates due process, for example, would just leave us back where we were before they banned him.

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