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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   2425 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 11, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Ecuador

New President Daniel Noboa has started things off with a huge focus on law and order in response to the rise of organized crime in recent years (“The murder rate quadrupled from 2018 to 2022, while last year became the most violent yet with 7,500 homicides in the country of about 18 million people.”) . He has begun by announcing a referendum on new policies dealing with crime:

The referendum would seek approval from voters on lengthening prison sentences for serious crimes like homicide and arms trafficking, among others, as well for Ecuador's military to eradicate international criminal groups operating in the country, according to Noboa's letter to the court.

Noboa has also now announced the construction of two new maximum security prisons, with a not-exactly subtle nod to Bukele’s policies over in El Salvador:

He said the buildings would be exactly the same as a prison built by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, who has led a controversial crackdown on gangs in his Central American country.

"The prisons will allow for the division, proper isolation of people," said the 36-year-old Noboa, who took office in November, speaking in a radio interview.

"For all the Bukele lovers, it is an identical prison," to those he has built, added Noboa.

To make even more room, Noboa says they will also deport over a thousand foreigners in prison back to the surrounding countries they came from (no word on those receiving countries feel about it). By design the new prisons will be on the coast, far away from the heart of the worst of the violence, in hopes it will make it harder for gangs to liberate their members.

Speaking of which, the leader of the notorious Los Choneros cartel was just liberated from prison by his fellow gang members. People are freaking out, probably understandably, and Noboa has declared a 60 day state of emergency for the leader to be found. Having only just come out of a prolonged state of emergency under Noboa’s predecessor Lasso, apparently it’s a state Ecuadorians must get used to. Given that the previous state of emergency gave the military powers of internal law enforcement, I guess it makes the whole referendum a little redundant.

The cartels have responded in kind with major prison uprisings holding over 130 prison staff hostage and ghastly footage of them breaking into a news broadcasting station and holding the staff hostage on live TV. President Noboa has now declared they are at war with the cartels and have detained hundreds of alleged gang members. It's been a really crazy few days.

The cartels have responded in kind with major prison uprisings and ghastly footage of them breaking into a news broadcasting station and holding the staff hostage on live TV. It's been a really crazy few days.

I wouldn't mind them hanging around as debate moderators, especially if they're strict about time keeping. Shooting an Uzi next to someone's ear works better than muting mics!

I am curious to see how a genuine "tough on crime" policy plays out, now that we have multiple ongoing experiments. Some people might still like to believe that violence and repression can never work when it comes to reducing crime, whereas it's obvious to me that if it doesn't, you're not using enough, or at least employing it on the wrong targets. Bukele somehow didn't manage to shut up all the doubters, but at least other people in power have noticed and that seems to have overruled a lot of institutional inertia and learned helpless handwringing.

I think the meaning of a genuine tough on crime policy is very different in Ecuador or El Salvador where the crime problem is organised crime where sane people have chosen to persue criminal careers because they are more attractive than legal careers, versus a place like the US where most of the crime we are worried about is committed by drunks, druggies and mentally ill people.

If the gangs are credibly threatening the State's monopoly on violence (and busting a gang leader out of jail counts), then fighting them is more like war than policing.

I agree that long jail sentences don't act as a great deterrent for U.S. criminals, but they are still extremely valuable. Why? Because there is immense value to keeping the worst of society isolated during their most violent years.

Most criminals do not commit only one crime. They tend to commit dozens. The typical murderer will be a career criminal with several serious crimes. If we arrest and jail people for armed robbery or assault, we reduce the pool of potential murderers. Three strikes laws worked great in this regard.

As the prison population increased from 1980–2010, the crime rate fell.

As the prison population decreased since 2010, the crime rate rose.

Could you provide some citations on "typical murderer will be a career criminal"? Are you saying that murderers are generally violent people who tend to commit other crimes like assault (which I can believe), or specifically that they pursue crime as a career (i.e. serial robbers, shoplifters, etc.)?

Are you saying that murderers are generally violent people who tend to commit other crimes like assault

Yes.

or specifically that they pursue crime as a career (i.e. serial robbers, shoplifters, etc.)?

No, I don't believe they are primarily motivated by money. I think they are just violent people.

Could you provide some citations on "typical murderer will be a career criminal"?

You're going to be hard pressed to find an academic study on this matter for the usual obvious reasons. But the newspaper is full of anecdotes of killers being arrested who already have dozens of convictions which in a city like Seattle means hundreds of crimes.

Here's a stat from an earlier time (2002) https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/ascii/vfluc.txt

"Sixty-seven percent of murderers had an arrest record."

This does seem unbelievably low to me. I remember an earlier study out of Wisconsin that said the average murderer had already been arrested SIX times before committing the murder. Unfortunately, this seems to have been memory holed.

Are you saying that murderers are generally violent people who tend to commit other crimes like assault

Yes.

or specifically that they pursue crime as a career (i.e. serial robbers, shoplifters, etc.)?

No, I don't believe they are primarily motivated by money. I think they are just violent people.

Makes more sense. Because yeah, there are places where most murder is by actual career criminals - organised crime, in particular - but I was strongly under the impression that the West wasn't in that category.

"Sixty-seven percent of murderers had an arrest record."

This does seem unbelievably low to me. I remember an earlier study out of Wisconsin that said the average murderer had already been arrested SIX times before committing the murder.

Both can be simultaneously true, because there are some murderers who have been arrested literally hundreds of times and that drives up the mean. In particular, psychopaths. Quoting from Without Conscience:

Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal convictions. Even within prison populations psychopaths stand out, largely because their antisocial and illegal activities are more varied and frequent than are those of other criminals. Psychopaths tend to have no particular affinity, or “specialty,” for any one type of crime but tend to try everything. This criminal versatility is well illustrated in the television program, described earlier in this chapter, in which Robert Ressler interviewed G. Daniel Walker. Following is a brief exchange from that interview:

“How long is your rap sheet?”

“I would think the current one would probably be about twenty-nine or thirty pages.”

“Twenty-nine or thirty pages! Charles Manson’s is only five.”

“But he was only a killer.”

What Walker meant was that he himself was not only a killer but a criminal of enormous versatility, a fact of which he seemed very proud. He openly boasted of having committed more than three hundred crimes in which he had not been caught.

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