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Notes -
A bit of heat generated by Trump dubbing Nikki Haley "Nimbra", a butchering of her Indian birth name:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4420434-trump-on-mocking-haleys-birth-name-its-just-something-that-came/
I'm not sure who the media controversy is aimed at. His base is absolutely going to love it, the normal Repubs have no choice but to vote for him, and his enemies can't hate him more than they already do.
I predict if her numbers continue to climb, he's gonna mention her daughter's married to a black guy. Way too tempting for a guy like Trump.
On that, a surprising number of the establishment Republicans have kids married to black people. Haley, McCain, Boehner, etc. What's with that?
I'll absolutely take the opposite on that bet. When has Trump ever implied this kind of animus toward black Americans?
I'll also take a bet on Nikki's numbers "continuing to rise" if one's available (she'll lose New Hampshire and have to concede).
I feel like this is a good example of the two-screens thing. Not because of the real estate cases or any specific evidence, but because of how this action gels with one’s mental model of Trump.
My gut instinct was that yeah, an off-the-cuff mention of race is the exact sort of remark trump is known for. Nothing derogatory—he’s not going to get caught with a Martha Stewart hot mic. Just his usual rambling on a subject which happens to meander past his opponent’s family.
On the other hand, if one is very used to hearing accusations of dog whistling, this probably comes across as the same sort of attack, and is easy to dismiss. Trump has definitely avoided showing that animus.
I think you’re right on Haley, too.
A lot of Trump's remarks exist in this casual blase dual-screen world where each side parses them differently. I don't think Trump just said anything racist or meant anything racist. I understand why someone primed to see things that way, or operating on a different definiton of racism, would disagree.
However, in this case, I think predicting Trump will attack Nikki's daughter for marrying a black man is wildly off-base. That's not some ambiguous remark that cuts across different ideas of what constitutes racism. That's suggestijg Trump just believes black men are inferior and it's risable to date them. Where would that even come from?
I’m saying the Trump skeptical screen doesn’t require him to believe/say that. He could just “mention her daughter’s married to a black man,” no commentary, no animosity.
He could say “lovely family” and Trump haters would take it as a dog whistle, proof of seething racism, a personal threat. Some subset of racists would also take it as a dog whistle, and chortle about how their guy Notices these things and obviously that means he cares for their cause in particular. Both of these groups would be reading too much into it.
The important thing is that might-be-controversy is kind of a hallmark of his campaign. Every time he opened his mouth, it got interpreted in three different ways. Does he hate veterans, or just McCain? Is he a misogynist, or was it all locker room talk? He’s a living Rorschach blot, and he’s very good at finding those situations. That’s why I found it plausible that he would make Haley’s son-in-law newsworthy without ever saying an explicit word about him.
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