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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024

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Can you imagine a US Constitutional amendment that, if proposed, would actually get passed these days?

The relevant part of the US Constitution is:

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.

So, either 2/3 of both the House and the Senate, or 2/3 of the states must propose it, and then 3/4 of the state legislatures or conventions in those states must support it, for it to become part of the Constitution... as I understand it at least.

What sort of possible amendments could you imagine would actually pass and become part of the US Constitution in today's political climate, if they were proposed?

I find this to be an interesting question because it is a barometer of what the various factions of US politics actually agree on, despite their various differences, and also a barometer of how much polarization there is in today's US political situation.

  1. The size of the Supreme Court shall be permanently fixed at 9 members. All Presidents are guaranteed one appointment per term. If there is no vacancy during the term, then the President may vacate any single judge to create a vacancy at the conclusion of the Presidential term. If there is more than one vacancy, the President may appoint additional interim justices who will automatically be vacated at the start of the next Presidential term. [EDIT] The Senate may veto permanent appointments by a two-thirds majority. Interim appointments may not be vetoed.

  2. The House of Representatives shall be expanded to 1,000 members, with additional districts being added proportionally. The House of Representatives must conduct its business in a way that allows members to participate without being present in the chamber. Members shall be required to maintain residency in their district, spending no less then 50% of the calendar days per year there.

  3. Birthright citizenship shall be granted only to children where at least one biological parent is a citizen or resident having legally remained in the country continuously for a period of at least 3 years. Children may have no greater than two biological parents.

  4. The non-state district of Washington, D.C. shall be formally dissolved and the land de-annexed to the original states from which it was obtained. Congress may designate property within the current district to remain federal enclaves immune to state jurisdiction.

The size of the Supreme Court shall be permanently fixed at 9 members. All Presidents are guaranteed one appointment per term. If there is no vacancy during the term, then the President may vacate any single judge to create a vacancy at the conclusion of the Presidential term. If there is more than one vacancy, the President may appoint additional interim justices who will automatically be vacated at the start of the next Presidential term. [EDIT] The Senate may veto permanent appointments by a two-thirds majority. Interim appointments may not be vetoed.

This would be a huge centralization of judicial power in the Executive, and would be an immediate red-flag legal reform for a court-packing scheme in democratic backsliding countries. Any sort of coherent party or dynasty state would easily be able to exploit this to establish executive control over the judiciary.

Just on the veto side, the legislative break is a joke of a check or balance. Any president to win the American system has such a broad geographic coalition that they'd have more than a 1/3rd presence in the Senate, and thus basic party discipline would bar all but the most outrageous picks. This leaves nearly all the power in the President's hands.

Just on the presidential appointment side, just two concurrent Presidents of the same party/dynasty would be able to create almost overwhelming shifts in court composition. An incredibly hostile 7-2 court would easily become a 5-4 near-even split in just two elections, and would completely flip if, say, the President 'resigned' right before the 'transition,' thus elevating their vice-president to president, and letting said president get their own appointment for a 3-judge shift in 2 elections. Because there's no obligation to wait until the end of a term to replace a judge, any Presidential office worth it's salt would immediately reshape the court as their first act in office, while exploiting any absences for more.

The interim appointment without veto is also incredibly prone to abuse, as it directly encourages the ruling party to run intimidation- or elimination- campaigns against the judiciary. Just from the start, since any judge can be replaced, and because the natural incentive for the President is to replace the most hostile/opposing party judges, the incentive for any judge to not lose their seat for -insert personal reason here- is to comply with Presidential pressure and not stick out. If they do stick out and are removed- on pretext, for actual reason, resign 'under pressure', whatever- the President can immediately appoint a party loyalty. It wouldn't matter that the next president can appoint their own judge from the 'vacated' judges- that just means they can re-appoint loyalists, who can easily be counted on to make letter-if-not-spirit of the rule considerations. (Like, say, not counting an interim-replacement against the once-a-term appointment, letting pro-forma Vice President ascents appoint further judges, letting the same President make an additional replacement per time they assume the presidency, and so on.)

This would easily enable a system of court packing political loyalists and removing independent judiciary elements from the top court.

You make some good points, though I think the status quo is even more vulnerable in some ways. What would be a better way to try to equalize presidential influence over the court, do you think? Currently it seems a bit too based on luck, whether people die on the job while your party controls the Senate.

What would be a better way to try to equalize presidential influence over the court, do you think?

Not trying to, and not trusting anyone who pushes for it with any degree of power.

'Equalizing' presidential influence is not a good goal for the same reason equity-driven politics are bad for treating people equally, as it's a non-standard extremely open to abuse and manipulation as any President whose coalition is not politically dominant on the court can claim that they are not yet equal, and thus entitled to further reshape the court to their influence. It's a license for un-equal influence in the name of establishing an outcome, not a consistent process, with the state of said outcome being defined by the people in power with all the opportunities for bias and self-interest it implies in self-justifying why they should get away with more.

By and large* I am not a fan of having executive- or party-controlled replace their predecessors, and while I am also not a fan of the executive having no influence whatsoever, the modern movement to equalize presidential influence of the court is part of a more banal effort to establish partisan control of the courts by a political party that for decades has viewed itself in historically determinist terms as the inevitable majoritarian ruling party, and more recently the only legitimate party of governance. Said party's think-piece networks and partisans openly muses other efforts to gain partisan dominance of the courts, ranging from explicit court packing to pressure campaigns to create new vacancies, with enough variations that I have no faith of any broad sincere desire to equalize presidential influence over the courts, only to equalize their influence on the courts on the way to re-establishing partisan dominance and deference previously enjoyed.

*One of the few exceptions I tend to have is for court systems established by external/illegitimate powers (such as occupation authorities, colonial authorities, or coups) and/or which self-select their own successors without executive and/or legislative input (which creates insular captured-interest blocks of whoever dominates the internal replacement process). Even then, I'd far prefer that a new administration allocate a share of new appointments with the opposition, and not grant themselves direct majorities. Yes, I am aware this basically never happens.

Currently it seems a bit too based on luck, whether people die on the job while your party controls the Senate.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is your reminder that Joe Biden was one of the specific leaders who introduced 'Borking' to the American lexicon, and that Democratic federal and Supreme Court politics have only escalated since then.

Adversarial court politics was not always the way, and it did not have to be the way, but it was the result of choices, specifically of the Democratic Senate leadership generation deliberately deciding to employ and normalize character assassination, appointment allocation, and other techniques to try and shape court composition. From Borking and other slander campaigns to the Bush-era Federal appointment stonewalling to arranging protests outside of judges houses or inside the Senate working areas, if there is a lack of goodwill to appointing Democratic judges, I'd wager it has some slight thing to do with Democratic conduct toward their peers on the topic.

None of your proposal address this very contemporary and living history, nor is there a reason why- in the face of very real and very earned distrust- a 'reform' that hyper-concentrates the ability to abuse judicial appointments in the hands of a party with a contemporary history of defecting on judicial norms that expects to be the primary beneficiary of the reform would be a beneficial thing at a constitutional level.