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The remaining primaries and convention at this point serve as little more than a coronation for the inevitable Trump nomination. It was discussed last week the unlikely circumstances in which Trump is prevented from running. The questions now are:
The likelihood Trump wins? Betting markets put the odds between 40-60%, which is not that useful but is what I would expect. The election will be very close and come down to the usual swing states like in 2020 and 2016. Biden's approval ratings are precariously low for an incumbent, especially given that the Electoral College works to Trump's advantage.
What will a second Trump term be like? My guess is much like his first term. A lot of hollow populist gestures to his base but not much happens. I still don't understand these people who are otherwise centrist or middle-left like Matt Yglesias and Noah Smith, who predict or expect a foreign policy crisis if trump wins , but always fail to articulate what this entails. I guess they have to keep toeing the 'orange man bad' line even though he was not that bad, and the economy and other metrics did well under his presidency (until Covid, which was out of his control anyway). Key alliances were strained much, as commonly feared in 2016-2017. The leadership of allies like Germany and France begrudgingly accepted Trump, and not much else happened.
I can't ascribe this to anything other than not paying attention:
(for just one example I dug up in 20 seconds)
Maybe you agree with these prognostications, maybe you don't. Saying that Trump's critics can't or haven't articulated their positions is just confusing.
"'Orange Man Bad' is the 'Buy index funds' of political commentary.". If historically left-of-center political commentators who have spent the past 8 years criticizing Trump and his policies continue to do so, odds are pretty good that they actually believe it.
If anything, the sudden flurry of "Oh, Trump wasn't that bad"-type statements from figures who previously criticized him reeks of groveling and bet-hedging. Jamie Dimon doesn't have to worry that Biden is going to punish him for making critical statements. Likewise for his many critics within the party who have 'come around'.
I agree that Trump's critics have articulated their positions. I disagree with their foreign policy analyses, though.
Even if America became fully isolationist, Russia would probably not dominate Europe because the EU has nuclear weapons and a larger population and economy than Russia.
Even in America became fully isolationist, China would probably not dominate Asia because an anti-China alliance of India, Japan, and possibly some other countries like South Korea and Vietnam would have nuclear weapons and a larger population than China, and an economy that is at least capable of holding its own against China.
The real risk that isolationism poses to US domination of the world is not that Russia and China would take over, it is that if the US's current allies in Europe and Asia had to fend for themselves, they would probably be quite successful at it and then they would not need the US anymore, so the US would lose its control over them.
There is also some risk that in a more multipolar world, wars and nuclear weapons would both become more common, which could potentially lead to a nuclear war into which even an isolationist US might get sucked in.
Yes, and for context: France by itself is a nuclear power with a larger GDP than Russia. As is separately the UK.
Russia is neck-and-neck with Italy in terms of economic size. And Russia has a very distorted population pyramid. Looks like a child's drawing of a Christmas tree. I rather doubt their large population will be mobilized to invade Western Europe.
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