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Something that always bothered me about the Motte is that while massive cultural/political events are going on in Europe, one needs to dive deep into the roundup thread to find any discussion of it at all. Meanwhile the latest trans-people-in-school or outrageous-nytimes-oped controversy (which nobody will remember in a week) will have 500 comment threads dedicated to extreme nitpicking.
Anyway sorry for the rant. It looks like the far-right (of the quite openly far-right, even post-fascist variety) has just won the Italian elections and will very likely going to provide the prime minister to a cabinet that will include a 85 year old Berlusconi among others. Italy is the 3rd most populous and wealthy country in the EU. It also acts as a perennial threat to the stability of the Brussels-led order and the euro, since an Italian default or currency exit would almost definitely trigger the collapse of the euro with who knows what consequences. The EU looks determined to fight. Meloni herself does not sound like the type of politician who will accept to be crushed as easily as her predecessors. Here is a French interview with a 19 years old activist Meloni. She still sounds like a true believer to me. To get the gist of just how radical (from the EU-norm) she is willing to be with regard to cultural issues, I recommend this speech from 3 years ago (with English subs).
What are your expectations? Are we coming near a grand showdown? How is this going to interact with the looming threat of grid collapse in Europe? Russia sanctions and the European willingness to keep Ukrainian army in the field? NATO expansions? Is her family and God rhetoric just fluff or do you expect some real moves in this regard? When the ECB will have to start increasing interest rates substantially and Italy has to choose between bankruptcy or euro-exit, how will this go under this government?
P.S. Italy was one of the most anal countries with regard to vaccine oppression and corona measures in Europe. Does anyone know what the position of the Fratelli was back then? And how they talk about these things now?
I realise this is an extremely flippant way to treat what you present as a serious problem, but it's Italy. It's entirely possible that they will have a completely new government by Thursday week. And the fact that Berlusconi is still influential is some kind of signal, even if I can't think what.
If it's on cultural issues, then I think there will be less of a showdown to the point of Italy walking out. Right now in Europe we have bigger problems, like the cost of energy and will we be able to keep the lights and heat on this winter. Faced with that, having a fight over social conservatism is not the time.
I am really curious about what sort of person still votes for Berlusconi. What does a 85yo Berlusconi still contribute to the Italian politics that other right wing or centrist leaders don't?
I am not aware of what Meloni thinks or says about the Russia sanctions, but it looks like Salving and Berlusconi both would at least privately really appreciate if trade with Russia just continues as usual and don't give two damns about the Ukrainian cause. If/when the sanctions lead to a deep depression and blackouts this winter, I expect Italy to be one of the weakest links in the Atlanticist "front".
She supports sanctions and arming Ukraine.
ROME, July 22 (Reuters) - Italy will keep sending arms to Ukraine and back Kyiv in its war against Russia if the conservative bloc wins a forthcoming national election, the head of the most popular party in the alliance has said.
The far-right Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, has been one of the few Italian parties that has wholeheartedly endorsed Prime Minister Mario Draghi's decision to ship weapons to Ukraine, even though it was in opposition to his government.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-will-keep-supporting-ukraine-if-right-wins-vote-says-meloni-2022-07-22/
both Brothers of Italy and the League have condemned the war, Salvini, who once heaped praise on Vladimir Putin, even signing a cooperation pact with the Russian president’s United Russia party in 2017, said the sanctions were not working and were instead “bringing Europe and Italy to their knees”.
Meloni, meanwhile, argues that the sanctions are working, citing a significant slowdown in Russia’s GDP growth prospects, and since the start of the war she has been resolute in her support for sending arms to Ukraine while reassuring the international community that she is pro-Europe and pro-Atlanticist.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/cracks-show-in-meloni-salvini-alliance-over-russia-sanctions-italy
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