site banner

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022

This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.

Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.

We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:

  • Shaming.

  • Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.

  • Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.

  • Recruiting for a cause.

  • Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.

In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:

  • Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.

  • Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.

  • Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.

  • Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.

On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.

26
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Yeah, I've been thinking and reading about nuclear war in recent days (unsurprisingly), and it soon become obvious people's idea of a nuclear war continues to be based on the Cold War era, chiefly 80s (when the nuclear stockpiles were highest). For instance, I did know that the total combined number of nukes is considerably smaller than in those days, but I was genuinely surprised that they are also smaller than in those days; when people talk about nuclear capabilities, they often discuss it in megatons, but even the largest Russian nukes these days are smaller than 1 Mt, and certainly not the capacity of Tsar Bomba, which was one-time demonstration that was never supposed to be anything else than essentially a proof of concept.

There's a listing of Russian nuclear warheads here.

They started trending smaller as soon as ICBM delivery became practical. Prior to this they where designed to be large enough so that thermal pulses from the devices could simply ignite enormous firestorms at great distance, facilitating their delivery. I think it would still be a grave mistake to ignore the dangers of a smaller device and believe that even a 20 or 30 kiloton device delivered near or in a city will be the worst thing that has ever happened.

Yeah, it's easy to forget the only bombs dropped in action were, what, 10-20 kilotons? The destructiveness of bigger bombs doesn't scale linearly with yield (at least against civilian targets rather than mountain bunkers and missile silos) so number of warheads accurately delivered is going to be the best measure of damage potential.

On a related note, you can go to Nukemap.org to simulate what effects (apart from fallout and economic devastation, etc.) a nuke would have on you. Find the nearest military base and/or major city center and simulate away. Fortunately for my family it looks like we'd likely be completely safe from any (direct) effects from a nuclear attack, since the military base likely to be the closest target is over 30 miles away.