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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 14, 2024

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Trump ordered to pay $355 million in penalties in New York Fraud case. He's also banned from operating any business in New York for three years, the Trump Organization is banned from borrowing money from any financial institution registered in New York for three years, and Eric and Don Jr each get their own $4 million dollar fines, and the former CFO Alan Wiesselberg owes a million. However the court also reverses its earlier ruling to cancel defendant's business certificates (aka the "corporate death penalty"). Instead an Independent Monitor will continue at the Trump Organisation for three years to ensure that it meets its financial reporting obligations.

All the penalties come with interest, so the defendants collectively owe around $450 million, not counting the $80+ million owed to E Jean Carroll. Even for Trump, that's serious money. Trump has of course said he will appeal, but to do so he will need to put up the full amount in bond first, and it's not clear he has the liquidity to do that - and as mentioned above he's now limited in his ability to borrow. And even if he manages to get the cash together, it doesn't seem to me that his prospects on appeal are at all good. Higher courts typically defer to the trial court's fact-finding, and Judge Engoron is not kind in his assessment of the credibility of Trump and his witnesses.

All thebpenalties come with interest, so the defendants collectively owe around $450 million, not counting the $80+ million owed to E Jean Carroll. Even for Trump, that's serious money. Trump has of course said he will appeal, but to do so he will need to put up the full amount in bond first,

And what are the odds he will pay? Probably not that good. AFIK, no one has collected on the Alex Jones Sandy Hook verdict either, due to asset shielding. Does anyone actually pay these huge civil verdicts out of pocket? I think his much greater concern is losing a criminal case, and even then, Trump is Teflon and nothing sticks to him. And given his advanced age, he may die before paying anyway. Trump is smart enough to savvy enough to know what lines not to cross. Trump being precluded from running would also have to be weighed against the risk of civil unrest and a major retaliatory blowout turnout in 2024.

And what are the odds he will pay? Probably not that good.

He has assets in New York that can be seized. I don't expect this to result in a fire sale of Trump tower, but that's the direction things go if he doesn't find the cash himself.

Surely there are many appeals and other delays a wealthy defendant can file for before assets are seized and sold forcibly in this way.

That’s to say nothing of what Trump could do to hurt New York if he wins again, which would presumably result in some behind-the-scenes negotiation.

Defendants in NY civil cases have to put more the judgement amount into escrow with the court or get a bond before they can appeal.

The Saudis gave Kushner $2bn to manage in the hope he’d still be in favor in a Trump II administration, there are surely unsanctioned parties willing to risk $400m for favor with the man himself.

Kushner wasn't running for office. Being in hock to the Saudis to the tune of $400 million while running for president isn't a good look. There's also the fact that, in the likely event he loses the appeal, the Saudis probably expect him to pay the money back.