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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   823 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 29, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Do you think any new countries will become independent in the next twenty or so years?

What is the base rate? How many become independent since 2004? What happened in previous 20 year spans?

What counts as independence? For example, would you count farce in east of Ukraine to be counting as new independent states briefly appearing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation is not ideal but decent starting point.

Would Somaliland count?

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A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

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