site banner
PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   785 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 29, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

3
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Do you think any new countries will become independent in the next twenty or so years?

Apart from official recognition of areas that are already de facto independent, like Somaliland, Kosovo, Taiwan, etc. there is a possibility of an East African Federation forming in the next few years as a political union of up to seven currently separate countries. There are a few Pacific islands that have a chance at formal independence as well, including Chuuk (from Micronesia) and Bougainville (from Papua New Guinea), and Yemen and Libya would also probably be better off each splitting into two countries to avoid prolonging their current civil wars indefinitely.

What is the base rate? How many become independent since 2004? What happened in previous 20 year spans?

What counts as independence? For example, would you count farce in east of Ukraine to be counting as new independent states briefly appearing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation is not ideal but decent starting point.

Would Somaliland count?

Hummm...that is a good question. I suppose there might be further fracturing of existing state structures in world areas where there is ongoing conflict. There are a lot of those areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts So I would say I'm 80/20 on there being a new country in the next 20 years at some point.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats