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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024

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Trump case out on him being an insurrectionists.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

Compared to the Reddit debates and how the SC would prevent this as a non-lawyer I thought the opinion was fairly basic and simple. It seems to me that they just declared it a Feds power in Federal elections and the States don’t get a say. Personally, I did come to a belief that it was self-executing.

I think they avoided really touching on all the novel legal theories both ways going around on Reddit or twitter.

It came down to what I believe was one of my original views that letting States have any say in declaring someone an insurrectionists would be a complete clusterfuck and basically turn into state legislatures electing Presidents. Therefore they declared it a federal power.

I would call this pragmatic versus legally correct in my opinion. They avoided 100 page treatise on whether the President is an office holder.

I predicted something between 7-2 and 9-0. 9-0 seems better for the nation.

I'm happier it's a 9-0 with a messy concurrence than a 6-3 with a dissent, but it's still got a 3-justice concurrence with phrases like

Ultimately, under the guise of providing a more “complete explanation for the judgment,” ante, at 13, the majority resolves many unsettled questions about Section 3. It forecloses judicial enforcement of that provision, such as might occur when a party is prosecuted by an insurrectionist and raises a defense on that score. The majority further holds that any legislation to enforce this provision must prescribe certain procedures “ ‘tailor[ed]’ ” to Section 3, ante, at 10, ruling out enforcement under general federal statutes requiring the government to comply with the law. By resolving these and other questions, the majority attempts to insulate all alleged insurrectionists from future challenges to their holding federal office.

Which, to be fair, the majority opinion is otherwise a very Roberts order. Lots of floaty theory, and broad strokes of general purpose, not as much focus on statutory text or history. Doesn't even really engage with the plaintiffs well, like smothering the reactions to Gorsuch's (and Alito's) hypothetical about what happens to an in-office oathbreaking insurrectionist under the self-executing theory into "not even the respondents contend that the Constitution authorizes States to somehow remove sitting federal officeholders who may be violating Section 3", which is true, but mostly because it wasn't asked in the mess of the oral args.

But I expect that, regardless of the text of the majority opinion, someone's working on a lawsuit today trying to get Trump disqualified under federal law.

I think it blocks my horror story -- where people start talking about what votes, after being cast, may be counted, which courts were already flirting too close with, and then Baude-Paulsen giving legitimacy toward even low-level poll officials having the power to make that determination, such that even if later-overturned becomes hard for Red Tribers to believe isn't happening while being impossible to bring lawsuit against -- but we'll see how people respond. If there's massive resistance from lower courts, it doesn't really need to.

Yeah, I was a bit concerned that Jackson might go the "please defy us and take extralegal means to prevent Trumpian election" route in a dissent, but that didn't happen which is good.

Remaining paths for Interesting Times include:

  1. Trump being arrested under 2383 and stuck before a DC jury (SCOTUS basically greenlit that in their opinion, and there'll be pressure on the DoJ to do it) - this could be hilariously bad if the conviction comes after the "no replacing a candidate" deadlines, or during the lame-duck period after a Trump electoral victory
  2. Trump just straight-up wins, Blue Tribe revolts against Trump.

3.Trump wins, the filibuster gets nuked, thermostatic opinion delivers midterm victories for Democrats, Congress passes enabling legislation for section 3, Trump vetoes it to prevent himself from being removed from office, he gets impeached again for the veto...etc.

Sorry; I might not have been especially clear. As I was using it, "Interesting Times" ~= insurgency/civil war; people being killed on a large scale. That #1 I noted, if done with timing such that Biden wins by default, is probably enough to open that can of worms. #2 may also be; I've heard some worrying things out of my SJ contacts.

What you said seems to be basically politics as usual (at least, as usual for troubled times); I don't see anything there that's a clear red line the way "election with only one valid candidate" is and "Trump in power" may be for the Blue Tribe, except insofar as it reduces to #2 because Trump would be in power and doing Trump things.