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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024

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Texas Politics Lurches Right

Yesterday, for those of you who don't know, was super Tuesday(goodbye Nikki Hailey). Trump's victory in all of the states except one was obviously foreseeable and, while the NYT claimed a Trump-Biden rematch was inevitable in their morning brief, with all due respect to the paper of record, that's kind of been obvious for a while.

More interestingly, Texas's elected republicans in both federal and state politics are assured to be much farther right on average than they were this time last year. https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/06/texas-primaries-gop-incumbents-defeated/ I apologize for using a snarl-words filled source, but it's both reasonably comprehensive and not-paywalled.

Texas voters on Tuesday handed more power to the insurgent wing of the Republican Party in an expensive and vengeful primary election, punishing GOP lawmakers, judges and a House speaker who defied hard-right state leaders and their supporters in recent years.

The shockwaves rippled up and down the ballot. Most notably, Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, was forced into a runoff with a well-funded challenger, David Covey, after being targeted by ultra-conservative donors and activists, who faulted the second-term speaker for declining to stop the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton last May.

Paxton backed Covey in the primary, along with many other conservative challengers targeting House members who voted for his impeachment. Joining him in a fight against House incumbents was Gov. Greg Abbott, who targeted those opponents of his signature school voucher program.

They're leaving out that Trump made a set of endorsements of his own, mostly aligning with Ken Paxton's.

Six Texas House Republicans who fought Abbott’s attempt to create a school voucher program in Texas lost their primaries to pro-voucher candidates, while another four were forced into runoffs to defend their rural districts.

Voters also ejected three Republican judges from the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, the state’s highest criminal court, including Presiding Judge Sharon Keller, who garnered less than 40% of the vote. Paxton sought to oust the three judges after they ruled in 2021 that his office didn’t have the power to unilaterally prosecute voter fraud.

"Tonight, Texans have spoken loud and clear,” Paxton said in a statement after judges he campaigned against lost their primaries.

Three Republican members of the Texas State Board of Education were struggling late Tuesday as well, with incumbents Tom Maynard and Pam Little being forced into runoffs and Pat Hardy poised to lose her seat altogether.

Those appeals court candidates benefited majorly from Trump endorsements, and so did several of Greg Abbott's challengers. Now, Ken Paxton has a 5-4 minority of the appeals court supporting his authority to prosecute voter fraud directly, instead of an 8-1 minority. It's... I wouldn't say probable, but certainly within the realm of possibility, for Paxton to get another judge to switch giving him 5-4 the authority to prosecute voter fraud without the cooperation of a district attorney. But it's worth noting that Greg Abbott's endorsements far outperformed Paxton's(https://twitter.com/bradj_TX/status/1765263680210342343) where they conflicted. Turns out getting into a confrontation with the federal government and looking like a winner pays off, to the point of getting majority support from young voters(https://www.newsweek.com/greg-abbott-won-over-gen-z-millennials-1871679).

The other big primary news is that the grassroots conservatives in the Texas house now have at least 10 votes(https://twitter.com/bradj_TX/status/1765400527993540690) in their anti-establishment block. That's not just an arbitrary milestone; 10 challengers to a ruling of the speaker subjects that ruling to a floor vote, which gives Shelley Luther- yes, the one that got arrested for operating a salon during lockdown- the power to potentially force concessions. This group could expand significantly with runoffs. Either way, the Texas state government will assuredly have a much more conservative direction in 2025.

Federally, the democrats decided that Collin Allred, currently the US representative for a nice part of Dallas, will have the honor of losing to Ted Cruz in November. I'm mildly curious as to the odds; will he spend more or less than $100 million to lose? For US house primaries,

That will be evident in the U.S. Capitol, too. In another blow to the bipartisan middle, U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio, was sent into a runoff with Brandon Herrera to defend his seat after the Republican Party of Texas censured him last year over his support of gun safety legislation and gay marriage, and his willingness to work with Democrats.

A decisive nod to the far right also came in the race to replace veteran U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess, a staunch social conservative known for his pragmatism and willingness to compromise with Democrats.

Brandon Herrera is a firearms influencer on social media as a day job.

School vouchers address a problem at a much lower level than necessary. Firstly, they allow Hispanics, Muslims, other minorities to run their own schools, destroying any future hope of even partial assimilation (this is a growing issue in Western Europe cf the UK, it’s hard to see vouchers as a win in this context in any case). Evangelical Christian schools will mostly still be only mildly Christian (for reasons expanded upon below), but Muslim schools are going to be really Muslim.

Secondly, they fail to address the fact that most teachers are still fundamentally progressive. Even conservative Catholic (or Baptist, or Orthodox Jewish) schools often have liberal/progressive teachers because that’s who studies education. Your based and trad voucher-taking school will set up operations, look to hire teachers, and find that….there is no magic well of right-wing teachers out there. Sure, in some ultra-conservative communities you can get some of the way by hiring/training older married women, but most still prefer to be homemakers, or have jobs of their own, or don’t want to work as teachers in any case*.

* Muslim schools get around this latter problem by being able to rely on first-generation overseas staff from conservative Islamic countries. Evangelical Christian schools, unless they start hiring Ugandans, have to make do with American staff.

School vouchers address a problem at a much lower level than necessary.

Secondly, they fail to address the fact that most teachers are still fundamentally progressive.

And how do you propose places like Texas address this instead? What does addressing the problem at a "higher level" look like?

Pass laws that affirmatively teach whatever it is they think kids should know, then pay what and train who is necessary to alter the majority ideology among teachers.

Pass laws that affirmatively teach whatever it is they think kids should know,

Except, as we've seen in Florida, this doesn't work. It gets characterized as "right-wing cancel culture," "don't say 'gay,'" "'whitewashing' history," and so on. And, as a number of teachers and union representatives have asserted, they're not going to obey. I've seen invocations of the Scopes trial — 'it didn't matter how many laws the backwards creationists passed to forbid it, we never let those stop us from teaching the truth of Darwinian evolution; and similarly, it doesn't matter how many laws the stupid right-wing bigots pass trying to mandate we teach lies about America's racist history, LGBT+ identities, or whatever, we will keep on providing children with the Truth!' Personnel is policy, and there's a general dearth of enforcement mechanisms when the entire profession is ideologically captured and in opposition. Which gets to the next part.

then pay what and train who is necessary to alter the majority ideology among teachers.

The only way to do that is to fire pretty much all the existing teachers and replace them with new ones that aren't beholden to the current ideology. So, first, how long would it take to train enough new teachers to replace the over 400,000 teachers and administrators Texas currently has. Second, this would require replacing the current ideologically-captured system of teacher-training, which would pretty much require the wholesale purging and replacement of American academia, at which point one gets into the domain of coup-complete problems.

It all goes back to the universities. All methods of recruiting skilled workers except credentialism were made de facto illegal in the 60s, and then the left took over the institution that issues credentials. What more do they need? Personnel will always be in their favor. Everything in American history since has been an endgame where checkmate is guaranteed for the right unless the left bungles its moves, allowing a stalemate; in other words, an ending where both sides lose.

Texas can have their own state run teacher's training programs separate from the research universities. They probably do. Nearby states do, along with alternative licensure that doesn't require a teaching degree. Community colleges aren't even all that leftist for the most part, just kind of pragmatic.

Edit: removed some stuff.

It all goes back to the universities. All methods of recruiting skilled workers except credentialism were made de facto illegal in the 60s, and then the left took over the institution that issues credentials.

Texas can have their own state run teacher's training programs separate from the research universities. They probably do. Nearby states do, along with alternative licensure that doesn't require a teaching degree. Community colleges aren't even all that leftist for the most part, just kind of pragmatic.

I contend that if Texas made serious strides towards a parallel credentialing infrastructure, it would come under attack by selective enforcement of disparate impact — disparate impacts in the existing mainstream universities notwithstanding. If it didn't succumb to entryists first. Outright conservative credentialers for knowledge jobs are tolerated so long as they remain in the JV league (eg Liberty University).