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Two people are being forced to fight each other to the death. They are both equally inexperienced and of the same height and build. They are fighting in a flat open area.
One has a 6 inch hunting knife. The other has a 34 inch wooden baseball bat.
Who is likely to win?
There was a Twitter poll a few years ago here, but you should post your answer before you look.
I personally thought the answer was pretty blindingly obvious and this question wouldn't even be interesting since everyone would agree, but I've been taken aback at how I'm actually in the minority opinion.
Edit: You bat people are insane. They're both inexperienced fighters so the bat hits are going to be pretty bad and the knife hits are going to be pretty bad. But a bad knife hit still means someone is getting stabbed, which is way, way worse than a bad bat hit. The only way the bat user wins the fight is if they get lucky and get a very good hit in (like bashing the person full-force on the head). They only get maybe one chance, then the knife user can just close the distance by lunging.
Lindybeige did a sword vs spear test and the longer reach won most of the time. The swords did better when they bumrushed the spear but most of them, even though they were play weapons, were too scared to do that and stood back looking for an opening until they got popped in the face. There's a few youtube videos of the exact knife vs sword scenario and my takeaway is that, like most fights, the more aggressive one wins. If you dodge or block at all you've lost the initiative and you're done for.
Crucially, a baseball bat doesn't have a pointy-end, though.
Trying to thrust a baseball bat into someone's face runs a large chance of it missing, getting it blocked, and/or getting it grabbed. From the opponent's perspective, getting thrusted with a baseball bat into the arm or leg is like a complete non-issue and getting thrusted with a baseball bat in the stomach might hurt ("ooph!"), but ultimately presents an opportunity to grab the bat and/or counterattack.
However, getting thrusted with a spear anywhere could mean getting momentarily disabled or death, or momentarily disabled and then death. Spears can also deal slash damage to cause bleed-out, which a baseball bat cannot. A lucky poke or slash from a spear could be all it takes.
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