Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
- 48
- 5
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Gigantic terrorist attack at a concert in Moscow in progress. At least 140 dead probably significantly higher. The concert hall is on fire and currently collapsing. Perpetrators unknown. Multiple shooters with AKs.
Edited to add: Looks like ISIS had claimed responsibility, Putin will be making a statement soon
Second Edit Reuters and Skynews are reporting a second attack at an emergency medical center at least 28 dead there. (Third edit: this seems to be an erroneous report based on a western news outlets mistranslation of a Russian news broadcast)
Fourth edit Putin and the FSB have made statements in the past hours claiming that the concert hall attackers were attempting to flee to Ukraine and had Ukrainian assistance in entering Russia to carry out the attack
Fifth Edit FSB alleges attackers were detained 85 miles from the Ukrainian border on a near a highway heading south. Attackers indicted in Russian court. They appear to have been tortured.
Sixth Edit FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov claims in official statement that the Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom were behind the attack
US intelligence concurs that ISIS was responsible, and this attack definitely fits the MO of Islamic terrorism in Russia and previous ISIS attacks more than anything Ukraine could or would want to pull off (so far mostly kamikaze drone strikes on military targets).
It appears that the Afghan branch of ISIS has been gaining in strength since the Taliban takeover and is now fighting the same kind of insurgency against them that they did against the American occupation. Say what you will about the Taliban, but at least they don't dream of world domination like many other jihadist groups. I suppose it's a pipe dream to wish for a foreign policy discerning enough to pick out and empower isolationist Islamic extremists at the expense of their interventionist brethren, but it sure would let the rest of the world sleep a little easier.
It kind of fails to meet the MO of either of the two attacks you linked in that instead of taking hostages or doing anything else that implies indifference towards their own survival, the attackers hopped into a car and made a dash for the Ukrainian border. Ukraine has previously recruited assets inside Russia for terrorist attacks (Dugin's daughter, Fomin) with the promise of helping them escape and rewarding them afterwards; it seems quite plausible that they could've picked up some ambitious Tajiks too.
As for the motive - it might just be plain hatred of the enemy, but I also suspect that their leadership still believes that broad Russian support for Putin is predicated on him delivering stability and prosperity and would collapse if this perception were to fall apart (see also the recent nontrivial investment of scarce materiel to bring heat to Belgorod). As with the Nordstream case, they might correctly assess that as long as a minimum of deniability is maintained, the Western media and hence public is exceedingly unlikely to turn against them over it.
(That being said, I don't think it's implausible that it was actually a bunch of high-fidelity ISIS larpers that just unilaterally decided to run for Ukraine because they figured it was the place most likely to give them a heroes' welcome, either. To be bona fide Islamists, though, their MO is way too divergent; the ISIS responsibility claim, if it's actually authentic, is more likely to be their usual throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks tactic.)
While most Islamist terrorists do commit suicide (either directly or by cop) during or after their attacks, some do have a last minute change of heart, panic, or have a moment of cowardice and decide to flee. In Europe quite a few have run away after their attacks.
The one successful attack in Sweden (so far) had the terrorist run away and ultimately surrender for example.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link