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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 1, 2024

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I don't know much about sports. But I've looked into TV ratings quite a bit and frankly I just don't trust them.

The main player is still Nielsen. There are competitors, but they're the mainstay, especially for US ratings (which are the most valuable to advertisers). And most of that data is still collected from people who voluntarily agree to be part of their measurement program. You can't volunteer for it, they have to approach you, perhaps by sending you something in the mail. They try to adjust for all demographics, but how could they? They have some device that they claim can listen to the audio and determine what you're watching but... I really doubt it's all that accurate. There are obvious questions like

  • how do they know if I'm really watching or just letting it play in the background?
  • how much do I need to watch to count as a view
  • what about multiple people in the household
  • what about sports bars
  • how do they generalize from their small sample to the entire world
  • how many of their viewers actually watch the ads and pay attention (the most important question to advertisers)

and they just don't have valid answers for those. It's a rough measurement. They still ask people to fill out self-reports in booklets, you can imagine how accurate that would be. See this thread for some details: https://old.reddit.com/r/cordcutters/comments/11hd2sf/how_the_neilson_ratings_work_with_streaming_by_an/

So, I dunno. Maybe the women's college basketball finals attracts more of the sort of people chosen to be Nielsen families? Not that word, "families," they're probably not asking a lot of single guys hanging out at dive bars to gamble on whatever sports are on. It seems weirdly specific that people would be so into women's college basketball but not the WNBA.

I think they’ve spent decades trying to weight their viewership metrics with real data on who is actually watching TV. It’s probably flawed in some ways but I’m sure the issues you’ve thought about have been considered.

It’s kind of like how, say, young men are very unlikely to spend 20 minutes on a landline survey poll asking about political candidates, even though (despite low turnout) many millions of young men still vote. Polling orgs know this and correct extensively for it, not just by weighting the men they get but by adjusting for the kind of views young men who do answer the call might disproportionately have.

Polling orgs know this and correct extensively for it, not just by weighting the men they get but by adjusting for the kind of views young men who do answer the call might disproportionately have.

they try and correct for that. They still frequently get it wrong. There are multiple, competing polling organizations with different methods, which are mostly open-source, and are ultimately checked by the election itself where you got to find out who was right. TV ratings have none of that, it's just a black box where Nielsen swears that "we've got it figured out, don't you worry your pretty little head" and there's no objective test to see if they were right.

Nielsen is checked by reality. Since modern internet-connected cable boxes, certainly since streaming, companies have had the ability to compare Nielsen figures with the real number of screens. Sure, channels are often reluctant to sell those figures directly to advertisers unless they’re very good, and Nielsen knows household formation (ie number of viewers per household) in a way that Netflix doesn’t necessarily, but there are people in the industry who get both sets of figures. If they were way off Nielsen would probably know. They hire ex-streaming executives who know the figures.

First off, this would be the same methodology and population sampled as in previous years, so whether the total magnitude is correct the change should be relatively close.

I think there are a few contributing factors.

  1. The men's game is still quite popular, but the increase in NIL and one-and-done (or even none-and-done with the now-going-to-fold G League ignite or foreign teams) has meant that there are a lot fewer familiar faces year to year - in the women's game everyone plays for 4 years (or with COVID, 5 now) so people get to know them a lot better.
  2. Caitlin Clark is something of a singular force - people like deep 3s and guard play (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Steph Curry are maybe the 3 most popular basketball players of all time) and she provides both in spades.
  3. There's a bit of a culture war anger with the LSU vs. Iowa, Angel Reese vs. Caitlin Clark, (or as in the previous game), America's sweethearts versus the basketball villains: https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/story/2024-03-29/ucla-lsu-america-sweethearts-versus-basketball-villains LSU's coach being an accused homophobic trump supporter just makes it even more culture warry.

Angel Reese

She really is an incredibly annoying player. Constantly taunting opponents, instigating conflict, plays dirty, then acts like the victim when there's ever any blowback.

Hard disagree. I tuned in late, but that foul that caused her to foul out in that Iowa game was was very questionable in my opinion, and I thought she handled that much more maturely than star college athletes usually do. I did tune in late though, and I'm sucker for those eyelashes.

First off, this would be the same methodology and population sampled as in previous years, so whether the total magnitude is correct the change should be relatively close.

Not if they're measuring a relatively small number of people, who change from year to year, and then wildly extrapolate from that with a methodology that also changes from year to year!

More broadly: It seems like that one particular basketball game is an outlier. Most of their games are in the 2-4 million range. Still great ratings, but not the same as 12 million. I guess people really love that LSU-Iowa rivalry? Seems weirdly specific to me, but then I'm not the kind of guy watching basketball.

I guess people really love that LSU-Iowa rivalry?

Yes pretty much haha. Caitlin Clark drives huge ratings, and with LSU and Iowa meeting in the championship last year and driving a ton of interest, it was not shocking at all for it to have a seismic rating.

LSU & Iowa were the two most popular women's teams of the last few years. That basically explains it.