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Notes -
Israel / Iran War Back On?
Rumors are swirling that Israel will attack Iran as early as today. Iran has promised to retaliate if they do.
Why would Israel do this? Some conjectures:
Iran's missile and drone attack was so pathetic that Israel feels it can attack with little fear of retaliation
The reaction to Iran's attack shows that Sunnis won't help Iran
An outside chance of regime change in Iran might be worth it. Israel has gradually improved relations with Sunni neighbors such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's proxy fights have been a constant thorn in their side. A regime change in Iran could finally bring true peace to Israel.
If they can set back Iran's nuclear program it will be worth it
One big wild card is of course the U.S. reaction. Biden is in the middle of a difficult re-election campaign where inflation is probably the #1 issue. Petrol prices have been a major obsession with the Biden administration, which is why they unfroze billions of Iranian funds and reduced sanctions (in what now looks to be a serious blunder).
Israel's attack could cause a spike in oil prices and threaten Biden's reelection campaign. Having already drained about half the SPR to help win the 2022 midterm elections, there is less flexibility to supress prices this time around. For this reason, Biden has urged restraint. But when the chips are down, I think everyone knows that Israel will have the administration's full support.
Less certain is the reaction of European countries and Muslim neighbors. Will countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia truly remain neutral if there is a full-blown war between Shia Muslims and Jews?
Maybe it'll happen this time. Maybe the next time. Israel is capable of successfully prosecuting a war against Iran without American assistance or approval, and the logic of the situation in the region makes such a war nigh inevitable (unless the Iranian regime goes down otherwise).
As I've said a year and a half ago:
It's a popular conceit on the far right that the US will one day grow out of the «Greatest Ally» narrative. What is not considered is that Israel is straight up a politically stronger, more agentic and more serious country, and can pull the plug from their own side.
Some random Russian economics and history channel comes to mind:
The author is Catholic, but I get the impression – from many distinct sources – that even mildly Zionist Jews are inclined to agree.
Americans are truly delusional if they believe that their clients – be those Ukrainians or Jews – feel any loyalty to them just because of past help, or can be blackmailed with talks about some common Western cause or principles or interests. They're going to do what they find useful, at occasions they deem opportune.
The US aren’t “pathological liars and traitors”, they just put their interests first. The Israelis didn’t tell Austin about the consulate attack because (as the telegram channel correctly says) there was a good chance they’d tell the Iranians to “preserve stability” and “avoid escalation”. But all major powers have these considerations, look at the way the Russians screwed the Armenians over again recently, for example. There are even things the British and Canadians don’t share with the US. Only Germany and possibly Australia are really pure vassals.
Huh? I don't endorse the author's evaluation, as I do not believe Israel is entitled to even greater American support. Protesting American displeasure is pure arrogance on Israeli part.
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