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Notes -
Israeli missiles hit site in Iran, ABC News reports
Iran’s military response will be ‘immediate and at a maximum level’ if Israel attacks, foreign minister says
Questions:
If you predicted a nothingburger - how are your predictions holding up? Is there still an offramp here where we can avoid further escalation, or could this evolve into a full on ground war? It's not clear to me if Israel's military could be stretched enough to handle a conventional war on multiple fronts.
Also, what does this indicate for the future of the US-Israel relationship? The US administration made it pretty clear to Israel that they didn't want them to retaliate against Iran (the going theory seemed to be that it would be bad for oil prices in an election year). Presumably Israel is feeling some real existential pressure right now if they're willing to openly defy the will of the US, one of their only consistent allies on the Palestine issue.
You’re asking if the Iranian army would be able to march 500 miles through two countries over open terrain despite Israeli-American air supremacy to invade Israel?
Iran has between forty thousand and a hundred thousand proxy troops parked on the Israeli border, not counting the Syrian army. It could turn into a ground war real quick.
Most Iranian proxy forces have to contend with complex domestic politics of their own, the Shia militias in Iraq, the SAA, to some extent even Hezbollah can’t abandon their current positions to march toward Israel without risking eroding their control at home; they’re not expeditionary forces like Western armies, you can’t redeploy a lot of Iranian proxy forces without the local Sunni militias and other opposition groups taking advantage very quickly, even if you’re serving the ummah by going jihad against Israel.
The paramilitaries are considerably more eager to attack Israel than the Iranians are. If the Hezbollah commanders on the ground had their way, they probably would have launched everything and opened up a northern front shortly after October 7. Iran held them back because if Hezbollah starts a major engagement and gets destroyed, Iran loses a lot of leverage in their Cold War with Israel.
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