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It's All Astroturf
I came across this post today comparing two Reddit threads on LateStageCapitalism, posted 10 months apart, with essentially the exact same content, including top level comments and replies but with different user names.
Discussion on HackerNews.
The posters on HackerNews, ever blinkered, theorize that this is some sort of effort to farm karma in order to promote products. That theory is almost certainly not true. There is minimal commercial value to Reddit accounts.
The alternate explanation seems obvious. Hacktivists are manipulating Reddit to promote far-left ideas, creating fake accounts to post and vote. This does not take much imagination. In fact, Trump supporters were doing the very same thing in 2016 prior to being stomped by the site admins.
You'd have to be pretty simple to think that most of the political stuff you read on Reddit or Hacker News isn't deeply manipulated. It doesn't take many votes to sway things in one direction or another. All it takes is a few downvotes to keep dissenting voices from even appearing in front of real users. On the other hand, with a few upvotes, your own content will be featured front and center. It's comically easy to achieve.
It's been said that most of what you read on line is written by crazy people. I think it's worse. I think it's written by people who are trying to manipulate you.
I have a question, tangentially related but actionable nevertheless.
Every single information and/or discussion channel/forum is getting shittier and shittier. I posit that in addition to algorithms maximizing engagement or minimizing whatever, it's also the userbase. The average user is getting younger, less attentive and mostly importantly dumber. And this will only get worse as more of the third world with their sub 100 IQ's (Indians shitting up comments is a plentiful example) gain access to the internet.
Most of the internet is already unreadable to me. Not only is the discourse vaccous, it's actively harmful to my psychological and intellectual health.
Where do I even go in 10 years? Maybe Sam Kriss was right about the internet dying. It might serve me emails and host my software creations but it will not serve people like me anymore in the near future.
I spend nearly all of my message board time on either the Motte, Data Secrets Lox, a few other small-volume boards, and a finance board more oriented toward long-term investing. Pretty much everything else is direct blogs/substacks and an occasional quickly-regretted venture onto Twitter.
The key is smaller groups that are either gatekept or uninteresting to the general public. Everything else is garbage.
What is Data Secrets Lox? Can you describe a bit more about that?
It's the "official" builtin board style forum of (like the 3rd cousin?) of themotte. I think the relationship is roughly like:
Obviously the full history is a bit more complicated and there is a bunch of cross mixing between the branches.
DSL was created by users of the open threads on SSC when the blog went down IIRC. So very closely related to TheMotte's origin
Yes, exactly. I would describe it as more esoteric in that there are many more threads with diverse topics. Also the general vibe is a bit more relaxed and personal beefs are tolerated somewhat more.
The finance board is just bogleheads.org which is pretty public at this point. I mostly stick to a few niche topics (like TIPS investing) that have dedicated posters, but there is a lot of good information there for people who are new to investing.
Why TIPS? Do you ladder treasuries for deep cash? SGOV/BIL holder here.
BOXX > SGOV for tax reasons, in my opinion.
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The TIPS are for my version of a liability matching portfolio. The main idea is to ensure that we have an inflation-adjusted income floor in retirement that matches current spending, so that in theory our lifestyle will not need to change for financial reasons.
In our particular case I am penciling in my retirement at 63 and wife's when I am 68 (she is younger). We'll both start drawing SS when I am 70. So I need amount A for years 63-67, amount B for years 68-69, and amount C for years 70+ (currently planned through 82). These amounts are obviously estimates but reasonably good ones, and they exclude items like college which are accounted for separately. Once these floors are established, then the majority of the rest of the portfolio will be in global stock index funds with some in Treasurys.
I have about 2/3 of this locked in already. Currently there is a gap in TIPS availability from 2035-2039 which coincides with part of my plan. The 2035s will be available next year as 10y and I will just buy them as they become available. Then for some of the other years I will fill in as money becomes available.
This strategy is not for everyone but my wife is particularly risk averse and we do not need to take any additional risks to ensure a solid retirement. My goal is to preserve our current lifestyle - I'm not trying to hit the jackpot. The overall allocation is about 33% stock, 39% TIPS, 28% T-bills at this point.
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