ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Was it religion when people wanted to fly despite common knowledge at the time being that people can't fly?
Birds existed, people knew stuff can fly.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Y... yes?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Operation Chokepoint was explicitly political in the sense that it was an Obama administration policy designed to achieve the policy goals of the Democratic party.
Isn't part of the point being made that when Operation Chokepoint was taking place, it's results were being explained away as "the identification of certain industries, including smut, as high-risk and the expectation that banks who choose to bank them have appropriate procedures in place rather than just handing out small business accounts on standard terms, is something that has been around for a very long time regardless of the party in power"?
Simple cryogenics is one thing, I was talking about the uploading of your consciousness to the cloud and stuff. There's a whole bunch of ideas that are essentially recreating a religious worldview inside a secular one - mind uploads, simulation theory, Yud's posthumous consciousness reconstitution inside a virtual paradise vs. Roko's Basilisk.
Ah, but the catch is that most of the other sides of your bets (myself included) are probably likewise using motivated reasoning, not deliberate reasoning
It's not so much motivated reasoning as trusting your gut, and a big part of making your gut reliable is being able to tell the difference between what you think is true, and what you want to be true. While at this point I do have some ego invested in this, I think being right would be worse for me than being wrong. All I win if I'm right is an ego boost, but I lose one of the biggest social media platforms that single-handedly turned the socio-political tide away from a thousand years of darkness that I was foreseeing. If l'm wrong all I lose is some ego, but gain the ability to go on a moon fly-by cruise, or some crazy shit like this.
Now you may say that your decision is also not motivated, and you're just trusting your gut. That's fine, may the best gut win.
"Elon Time" has been a thing since at least Falcon Heavy
It's not about "Elon Time", it's about "Elon Hype". The problem with the Hyperloop wasn't the timing, it was that the idea was retarded. Same with the Cybertruck. The Boring Company might have been cool, if it actually delivered super-cheap tunnels, but I don't think they really outperformed anyone on the matter of costs. Tesla has a whole bunch of products in the pipeline now that were announced as revolutionary, just as the Cybertruck was, and are likely tu suffer a similar fate. A Robotaxi that needs a worker constantly holding his hand at an emergency shutdown trigger is no Robotaxi. This stuff is going to keep repeating with FSD, Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus.
Now maybe, just maybe, SpaceX still has the mojo, but I'm not counting on it.
Would you take $33 of mine to a charity of your choice vs $100 of yours to a charity of mine?
Yeah, that's my preferred way of dealing with it as well, for privacy reasons.
IMHO part of why SpaceX has been a success and e.g. Blue Origin (with more investment and a head-start) hasn't yet is that Musk's employees implicitly asked him to go to Mars.
That's an interesting take, I suppose it would explain why he keeps making these "Mars update" speeches. OTOH, I don't think there's a lot things that could demotivate you more, as working for someone who keeps promising insane achievements are just around the corner, while being the grunt charged with actually achieving them, and who knows exactly how far away you actually are from it. Ask me how I know.
At this point SpaceX is the investor, buying back $500M of their own shares last year (...) but right now he's still reportedly got the majority of voting shares,
That kinda makes me think that the buyback was about maintaining control, rather than any sort of investment (and strictly speaking, how could it be otherwise? They've spent money that could have gone on development, in order to buy paper).
and at the rate Starlink is growing (7 million subscribers now, up from 6 million in June and 5 million in Feb)
Isn't that underperforming relative to what was promised to investors? I think I heard the somewhere it should have been 20 million by now.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
The only people who might be persuaded by that argument, are the ones roughly evenly matched with you in terms of armaments, which probably does not overlap much with the ones saying things like "I'm free to make you a slave".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
There was a pretty big memetic overlap with rationalists, so all the mumbo-jumbo about uploading your body and freezing your brain was pretty popular, but Scientism is the elephant in the room here, I think.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Yes, but this doesn't have much to do with either Kamala or Trump. There's a reason why demicracues tend to not provide a "none of the above" option.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I am personally uninterested in the exact ideology behind restrictions on communication between consenting adult
Ok, then let's blame it all on liberals and libertarians.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
"Millions die in nuclear fire, women most affected"
What I find always find humorous, are all the progressive attempts to play it cool after getting caught proverbially wetting their pants. Sweeny didn't become anyone's darling, the left flipped out and started screaming "Nazi!", everyone else was just laughing at that. Her conduct, or how many children she will have, has no relevance to the situation.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Yup, though mostly having fun. I haven't really looked into it, and I don't know if the German establishment would take things that far.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
In that case, I'll add a fourth point to what cjet said: globalization sucks so fucking much, man. The fact that a noname group, from a country that lost a war to emus, can pull this off is so ridiculous...
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Germany must have started stocking up on heart attack guns this early, and there were none left to use on Trump.
Some people have blamed activist religious groups on aggressively lobbying the payment processors for this crackdown.
How sure are we this was done by religious groups, rather than, say, feminist ones? Or even that this actually is somehow politically neutral? If they can exert control over payment processors, focusing on porn would show a poor judgement of priorities. Not that it hasn't happened before, of course, but I am wondering if this isn't reflexive finger-pointing.
It's frustrating to me but a lot of people seem to gravitate towards religion of some kind.
Just embrace it, bro. Trying to force humans to go against their nature is the common thread between all the dystopian social and political projects we've ever seen.
The atheist movement in the 2000s seemed genuinely anti-religious.
I don't know if I agree on that. It might have been comitted to shitting on Islam as much as it was to shitting on Christianity, but it was no stranger to bizarre religious beliefs.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
I don't know how things are in the US, but in Europe companies pay premium for non-third-worlders. Now, the "premium" might still add up to chump change, but it might still be worth it depending on your situation.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
No, it was sexism. "Binders" was used to imply that he wants to "bind" women.
Didn't get a lot done regarding Substack integration, but addressed a few bugs that were bothering me:
- Apparently Twitter avatar URLs expire after some time. Either that, or some people I follow changed them (though I haven't noticed any difference), so I had to update them if any difference is detected.
- "Starring" / adding a Tweet to favorites also cascaded to all it's responses, kinda defeating the purpose. Fixed, but introduced a new bug where "starred" quotes and retweets aren't rendered properly.
- Paragraphs / endlines failed to render properly when viewing Twitter directly over the API.
How have you been doing @Southkraut?
You're welcome, but it's not entirely to my credit. I reserve the right to keep giving you shit about "three years AFTER" from now until the end of time
Feel free. Like I said the first time, my bets / opinions on Musk are not based on expertise, and I hope I didn't come off as pretending that they are. In fact, part of my shtick nowadays is proving the superiority of Vibe Analysis over deliberate reasoning, so I suppose my ignorance only works to prove my point here.
I'd put maybe 33% odds on them sending an unmanned (save for Optimus androids) one-way ship or two in the 2029 launch window, albeit probably to crash on arrival.
Well, if you want to bet, I'll be more than happy to give you 3:1 odds on this one. Even if it's smooth sailing from here on out, I don't know if they'll make a go for it. No one asked him to go to Mars, it's Elon's own personal dream, there's no money in it. OTOH he does have a contract for going to the moon, and his investors might want to see a better return on Starlink, and the things that have to be achieved before he gets beyond LEO make it so that "smooth sailing" is far from guaranteed. I want to see how that orbital refuelling works out, and if it handles boil-off well enough that it doesn't turn out they underestimated the amount of necessary launches by a factor of 2-3x.
Finally, there's the competition and the political risks. If Bezos swipes the moon from under Elon, the investors could very well say they're done here. If the competition can provide a tolerable alternative for Starlink, at least for the Pentagon, and the Dems win the next election, they'll stop at nothing to fuck him over.
Thanks for the detailed response!
When I watched, it looked like it cleared the pad pretty quickly
Yeah, I take it back. When I was watching a livestream, someone commented on it taking it's time (probably it being held, as you say), but what really gave me the impression was a post-launch commentary video, which, looking at the original stream again, must have shown the takeoff in slowmo.
But, unless they can do upper stage reuse, that still doesn't put a colony on Mars
Eh, it would be awesome, but unless some rabbits get pulled out of several hats, Mars feels like a distant dream.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Call centers? A bit of an assembly line, but they do pay, and give zero fucks if it's online.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
I think you might be using the "dark" theme, which indeed uses a barely perceptible in difference shade of gray. If you don't like the "reddit" color scheme, here's the custom CSS:
.active.arrow-up::before {
color: #ff8b60;
}
I don't think I'm color blind.
Which theme are you usinng? I think there are several dark ones, and I never had issues like that on mine (called "reddit" even if though it looks nothing like it). And if you're using the same one, I might have some news about that color blindness...
But if not, give me the name of the theme, and I'll come up with something.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
There's a custom css page in your settings. You can change the way any part of the website ia displayed from there. Here's my quickfix for the volunteer banner:
.volunteer_teaser {
background-color: var(--gray-600) !important;
}
They didn't. It was all fake, and an attempt to censor political opposition for the sake of censoring political opposition. There was, and still is, absolutely no evidence they were actually worried about losing profits.
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