Forgotpassword
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User ID: 1865
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
You're an Australian, correct?
Trump is the current favorite to win the next election @ $2.40 (Roughly 41.6%). You can bet 1000's of AUD currently on this not to happen at 58.4% (with a minor commission, taking you to about 56% implied) on the Betfair exchange. Tax-free winnings as an Australian hobbyist, too. As you think Trump is 85% to get jailed here, surely that makes your number of him winning the election a lot lower than 41.6%. Can even bet against him to win the Republican nomination at 81.3% with similar liquidity. No counterparty risk there.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Poker's a tricky one. I agree the best player as in 'the most skilled person at Poker' is an online bot kind of a thing, but the stars of yesteryear still eke out a living even with fairly mid skills by modern pro standards by mastering the greatest skill of all, which is Table Selection.
Far easier to be a medium fish who's good at finding small ponds than to be the biggest shark there ever was.
Forgotpassword
10mo ago
Sarah is correct that the modern alliance between liberal progressives and Muslims was a marriage of convenience that took advantage of some unusual culture war circumstances, but it's a tryst that was bound to fray apart given the fundamental policy disagreements. One of the efforts to keep the bandwagon held together comes from what Sarah terms Muslims in Name Only (MINOs):
Honestly this is the case for the vast majority of allegiances between immigrant/refugee groups and Liberalism. It is quickly forgotten by the Western Left that practically everybody from a progressive-tinged first world nation is about 5 jumps to the left socially on most issues, and that whilst the recent imports from wherever else are briefly aligned whilst it's in their financial interests to have a leg up, they are going to revert to form on social issues the second they're established.
Forgotpassword
3mo ago
I've never understood why the guillotine isn't the most humane way. Big enough/fast enough pneumatic press with a big enough blade and there's few things plausibly more consistent.
I'm fairly sure black women generally score the lowest for interracial appeal in dating app data, which might be part of it.
Then again there's generally strong correlations between being a black woman and a bunch of things the dating market isn't a fan of such as Obesity, dependents etc. which might mean that the antipathy towards Black Women is overstated on account of the correlated factors.
Like I found in my personal dating I tended to end up pursuing more Asian girls than anything else, but that was more due to a preference for 'My partner ideally has graduated university, isn't overweight, hasn't got somebody else's kids etcetera' than necessary a strong preference in isolation.
Forgotpassword
11mo ago
-- Learn to text well. The general advice to move to in person ASAP is good, but for various reasons I haven't followed it in years, I nearly always text extensively for days-weeks-months and the first time we meet up it is certainly to make love.
How the hell is this workable? I had a few extended (month+) texting sequences end in pretty immediate clunks in person, that admittedly I probably should have vetted better with selfie swapping and social media stalking, and the sheer palpable letdownery of those engagements scared me away from letting things go longer than a week or so without a first meeting in person.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
Honestly this is what perplexes me the most about indigenous culture war. I feel like one side reads the horrors of colonialism, but then doesn't engage with the horrors of general pre-modern human life.
Forgotpassword
9mo ago
King Von's shooting happened in Atlanta, but probably similar levels of care and ability
Forgotpassword
6mo ago
How much of that is cultural, though?
Girl-on-girl is a bit of raunchy fun. Guy-on-guy experimentation is likely to ick every woman who ever hears of your involvement, without even getting into man-on-man homophobia.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
Honestly I think the gameplay issue is that the engine works a lot more interestingly with the logic of Divinity than it does with DND 5e translation. Stuff like the armor/crowd control/floor systems in DOS2 just worked better, IMO.
Forgotpassword
9mo ago
Having participated in the modern dating market, it's pretty staggering how different your reception is 'on the apps' with moderate in your bio versus left-wing. Changing that one detail literally 4x'd my response rate.
Forgotpassword
11mo ago
This is not how N95 masks work. Their filtering efficiency is better for very small and very large particles than for medium ones. This is why people wear N95s (or better) when dealing with much more serious diseases than covid.
Yeah but they're wearing them with utmost attention to hygiene, regular replacements and full mask discipline for short periods of time
Forgotpassword
1mo ago
There have been attempts and some successful consolidations, but also a lot of these small businesses are complete landmines that don't work as advertised
Forgotpassword
2mo ago
It is a six-hour miniseries and at least 70% of the show is filled with boring relationship drama (the remaining 30% being focused on the actual…criminal investigation).
I feel like this is generally an issue with miniseries. There's this relentless need to take the half of the show that's about an interesting topic (Mindhunter particularly galling for this) and then wedge it against the protagonist's personal relationship issues, especially if it's a period piece with period vibes for the main concept and yet the protagonist is living their personal problems through 2020 norms and cultural memes. I understand the actual core stuff is what costs money and is hard to write, but the amount of shows where it has to be wild pingponging between 'here is the thing the show is about' and 'here is his girlfriend feeling neglected' is ridiculous.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Filipinos are the second highest income group? That seems off.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Northern Ireland was closer to a settler-colony and has similar issues.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Yeah. My interpretation was that he was diving/trying for some moderate rough play and landed the proverbial critical hit.
I don't think there was any intent of it ending as it did, but he also clearly made an abnormal movement for the sport
Forgotpassword
6mo ago
Yeah. Failure case in most Western democracies right now is not that earthshatteringly bad. It's definitely tight, but it's not like he'd be forced to go homeless 48 hours after declaring bankruptcy. Especially when he's got the contact network he ostensibly seems to have had, surely there'd be a 6-figure sinecure of some sort available somewhere as a consultant or middle manager that'd allow him to be atleast medium competitive.
Forgotpassword
6mo ago
Is this really a dunk? Both photos still substantially more attractive than the other woman, even if she's less presented in the one you've just linked.
Forgotpassword
7mo ago
Doesn't look like the right link?
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
I feel like gold digger is the wrong angle to come into. I've been in a similar position dating, managed to date a bunch of professional high-flyers I met through various apps, and it's more of a 'I want a partner who's a financial equal' thing than a 'I expect my lifestyle to be subsidized' thing in a lot of cases
Forgotpassword
11mo ago
The Gaymaleification/Sex-in-the-city of single women hasn't really produced much in the way of longterm happiness, from what I can see.
Forgotpassword
24d ago
Yeah but for a male the process of going from the computer lifestyle to adequately interfacing with dating is likely going to equate to making a bunch of lifestyle changes and grinding away at social experience to be anywhere near competitive in the market. For a girl, you create a dating app profile and you can be awash in suitors within 3 hours unless you are like bottom 2 percentile attractive.
I spent about a year on the dating app grind recently enroute to finding a longterm partner, and to get to the point where I was getting consistent positive attention took about 6 month of self improvement between weight loss, social learnings etc and that's as a 6'4, high-earning white guy with low-moderate aspergers tendency. The NEET version of myself is likely still floundering around. I ended up going on about 70 first dates during that year (50~ of which came after I was 'reasonably attractive'), and it's pretty striking to me how many of the women I met who I didn't end up with seem to be still stuck in an endless singleton rut years after the event. Most of these women are attractive, intelligent, had good jobs, 25-30 years old, reasonable educations and ostensibly want kids/commitment yet I believe they are their own worst enemies in a lot of ways.
Forgotpassword
24d ago
I think games have just scaled as a project to the point that there's too many cooks in the kitchen. Also credentialism likely trends more formulaic compared to when even majorish projects would prettymuch be 'somebody's cousin + moderate drug use = Elder Scrolls mythos'
Switching costs are high, unions will generally make attempts to increase the difficulty of procuring 'scab'/temporary replacement labor and historically there was less ability to just move a factory international or procure international workers.
Do agree that the Writers' strike seems pretty fangless when it's not only a job with a fairly arbitrary marker of skill/ability to function, but it's also one that's an actual desired, targeted role for a lot of people without a real credentialist barrier to entry. Writer compensation should, logistically, have a pretty severe pareto principle.
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