Forgotpassword
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User ID: 1865
Forgotpassword
7mo ago
Are the people running factory machines inside of Ford and GM (or starbucks, or a hollywood writers room) really that highly skilled?
Switching costs are high, unions will generally make attempts to increase the difficulty of procuring 'scab'/temporary replacement labor and historically there was less ability to just move a factory international or procure international workers.
Do agree that the Writers' strike seems pretty fangless when it's not only a job with a fairly arbitrary marker of skill/ability to function, but it's also one that's an actual desired, targeted role for a lot of people without a real credentialist barrier to entry. Writer compensation should, logistically, have a pretty severe pareto principle.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
You're an Australian, correct?
Trump is the current favorite to win the next election @ $2.40 (Roughly 41.6%). You can bet 1000's of AUD currently on this not to happen at 58.4% (with a minor commission, taking you to about 56% implied) on the Betfair exchange. Tax-free winnings as an Australian hobbyist, too. As you think Trump is 85% to get jailed here, surely that makes your number of him winning the election a lot lower than 41.6%. Can even bet against him to win the Republican nomination at 81.3% with similar liquidity. No counterparty risk there.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
From a lot of random errant 'Me as a single late-twenty something talking to married forty-something coworkers' conversations, I feel like the longterm married/coupled POV can be dissatisfied with their sex lives on account of rather misunderstanding the current moment in singledom.
I've had way too many chats with schlubby 45 year old middle-managers who seem to be convinced that Tinder is a cornucopia of casual sex for everyman and/or that they'd be able to be a 'chad'. Admittedly I've also seen the same play out more than a few times with younger longterm committed friends who've tried opening relationships and/or breaking up with their SOs to sample the market and found themselves deep in the shit.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
However, most nerdy guys I know who suddenly started getting laid easily - myself included - played the field, like a normal guy in that position.
I feel like a huge amount of this is the sheer grind required to 'ascend' and the rejection along the way, especially in the modern dating app sphere. IMO the majority of both gender rock up with more-or-less good intentions, but it only takes a little bit of exposure to the current culture to reach a state of Fuck You.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Poker's a tricky one. I agree the best player as in 'the most skilled person at Poker' is an online bot kind of a thing, but the stars of yesteryear still eke out a living even with fairly mid skills by modern pro standards by mastering the greatest skill of all, which is Table Selection.
Far easier to be a medium fish who's good at finding small ponds than to be the biggest shark there ever was.
Forgotpassword
10mo ago
Sarah is correct that the modern alliance between liberal progressives and Muslims was a marriage of convenience that took advantage of some unusual culture war circumstances, but it's a tryst that was bound to fray apart given the fundamental policy disagreements. One of the efforts to keep the bandwagon held together comes from what Sarah terms Muslims in Name Only (MINOs):
Honestly this is the case for the vast majority of allegiances between immigrant/refugee groups and Liberalism. It is quickly forgotten by the Western Left that practically everybody from a progressive-tinged first world nation is about 5 jumps to the left socially on most issues, and that whilst the recent imports from wherever else are briefly aligned whilst it's in their financial interests to have a leg up, they are going to revert to form on social issues the second they're established.
Forgotpassword
3mo ago
I've never understood why the guillotine isn't the most humane way. Big enough/fast enough pneumatic press with a big enough blade and there's few things plausibly more consistent.
I'm fairly sure black women generally score the lowest for interracial appeal in dating app data, which might be part of it.
Then again there's generally strong correlations between being a black woman and a bunch of things the dating market isn't a fan of such as Obesity, dependents etc. which might mean that the antipathy towards Black Women is overstated on account of the correlated factors.
Like I found in my personal dating I tended to end up pursuing more Asian girls than anything else, but that was more due to a preference for 'My partner ideally has graduated university, isn't overweight, hasn't got somebody else's kids etcetera' than necessary a strong preference in isolation.
Forgotpassword
11mo ago
-- Learn to text well. The general advice to move to in person ASAP is good, but for various reasons I haven't followed it in years, I nearly always text extensively for days-weeks-months and the first time we meet up it is certainly to make love.
How the hell is this workable? I had a few extended (month+) texting sequences end in pretty immediate clunks in person, that admittedly I probably should have vetted better with selfie swapping and social media stalking, and the sheer palpable letdownery of those engagements scared me away from letting things go longer than a week or so without a first meeting in person.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
...How is this different than (((Triple Parentheses)))?
I feel like the lack of an assumed/densely-correlated genetic component alters the calculus a little bit.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
Honestly this is what perplexes me the most about indigenous culture war. I feel like one side reads the horrors of colonialism, but then doesn't engage with the horrors of general pre-modern human life.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
King Von's shooting happened in Atlanta, but probably similar levels of care and ability
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
Realistically I think there’s an incredibly small percent of the population that some hormone thing went wrong and really have gender confusion.
I mean the base idea here is that Gender Dysphoria is definitely a real thing that exists.
Meanwhile the whole trans movement is more about 'how does society decide that these people should be treated and what is appropriate in regards to them' then it's far more a matter of conjecture and debate.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
I am a black professor, I directed my university’s black-studies program, I lead anti-racism and transformative-justice workshops, and I have published books on anti-black racism and prison abolition. I live in a predominantly black neighborhood of Philadelphia, my daughter went to an Afrocentric school, and I am on the board of our local black cultural organization.
It is kind of hilarious how badly this statement would come off if you substituted prettymuch any other ethnicity or word for Black.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
Because they are wholly uninteresting to talk to, unattractive, or I just otherwise don't think they're worth my time. It's the most clear "I'm not interested, but I'm also too busy to reject you" message you can send.
Ghosting also leaves juuust enough of a crack in the rejection that you can go back on it in future if necessary, too. Compared to actually rejecting somebody.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
How much of that is cultural, though?
Girl-on-girl is a bit of raunchy fun. Guy-on-guy experimentation is likely to ick every woman who ever hears of your involvement, without even getting into man-on-man homophobia.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
Honestly I think the gameplay issue is that the engine works a lot more interestingly with the logic of Divinity than it does with DND 5e translation. Stuff like the armor/crowd control/floor systems in DOS2 just worked better, IMO.
Forgotpassword
8mo ago
Having participated in the modern dating market, it's pretty staggering how different your reception is 'on the apps' with moderate in your bio versus left-wing. Changing that one detail literally 4x'd my response rate.
Forgotpassword
10mo ago
This is not how N95 masks work. Their filtering efficiency is better for very small and very large particles than for medium ones. This is why people wear N95s (or better) when dealing with much more serious diseases than covid.
Yeah but they're wearing them with utmost attention to hygiene, regular replacements and full mask discipline for short periods of time
Forgotpassword
11mo ago
IMO this one's far more open-shut than the George Floyd thing.
I've done a lot of jiujitsu & grappling and I'd honestly not expect somebody I was restraining Chauvin-Floyd style to die of asphyxiation.
If I've got a tight Rear Naked Choke on somebody I'm expecting them to pass out within 10-20 seconds and then I'm categorically letting go.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
I'm assuming the new, recent one?
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
Parimutuel only really gets used for horses these days, and even that's being eroded as fixed odds gets switched on. I've worked in the industry for a variety of different operators, in different roles, and generally the book's bankroll is so absurdly deep compared to the individual bettor that there's no significant sweats on day-to-day betting.
There's been some cases such as Mayweather-McGregor where there was an infinite supply of McGregor bets at large prices where a hypothetical win would have been very bad for the industry, but that's atypical. Trump-Biden was also another one of those down here in Australia where books had a sufficient potential liability on Trump they were literally encouraging arbitrage.
Forgotpassword
1yr ago
Instagram stories usually provide a solid vehicle, since they kind of imitate the 'oh I spontaneously walked past you and we struck up a convo' thing you'd get in other social avenues.
Forgotpassword
1mo ago
There have been attempts and some successful consolidations, but also a lot of these small businesses are complete landmines that don't work as advertised
I've spent a lot of time in my life doing BJJ and it's very hard to strangle somebody to death without realizing something has gone wrong long before that. It's not even a George Floyd situation where the restraint wasn't a conventional choke and/or it was very potentially a stress heart attack. The Marine was capable of restraining the homeless guy in far less risky positions.
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