No, it tells us nothing. The question is conditioned on a gold coin having been picked.
We didn't pick a box at random, the gameshow host did and revealed a gold coin.
They dont matter because the question is conditioned on that we already picked a box with a gold coin.
The question is what the odds are that we picked the box with both gold and silver, given that we have a box with at least a gold coin in it. There is 1/3 with gold and silver, hence the probabilty of the second coin being gold is 2/3. You could increase the amount of silver coins by infinity and it wouldn't matter. You're picking boxes, not coins.
Ioper
10mo ago
Because you know that you picked gold initially. The odds of the second coin being gold is the odds that you didn't pick 1/3 boxes with with both gold and silver coins, meaning 2/3. The only way the second coin isn't gold is that the initial choice was the box with both silver and gold coins in it, the number of silver coins in that box do not matter because of the precondition of having picked a gold coin.
Do you believe I'm a conservative or that I'm arguing for any of that?
Instead I should just invent data that conforms to my preferred reality?
Ioper
11mo ago
Use of conscripts would technically mean a greater manpower replacement sustainability but at a cost of popularity.
As such, that is an explicit goal of Ukraine's. They want a greater use of conscripts by Russia. Would it be good or bad for the outcome of the war, who knows?
Ioper
1yr ago
I'm assuming he refers to involuntary celibacy which was high for a hot moment but which has now gone down to historic levels.
Ioper
1yr ago
Just looked up the drama and that is some of the most pathetic and deranged incel shit I've ever heard in my life. LMAO
It is very easy to source ethical meat and not very expensive either. Treating it as some kind of unfeasible or cumbersome solution is so strange to me. If we want to reduce suffering then surely that must be an easier ask than asking people to eschew meat entirely.
But that's kind of the point isn't it? The vegans don't really want to reduce animal suffering, they want to be on a moral crusade. Veganism isn't an intellectually principled moral stance, it's a religious one.
Sweden? The TFR was pushed up above 2.1 in the 80-90s after some reforms.
The swing up started too early to just be due to the boomers and our baby boom was kind of tiny.
There might be other explanations as well such as people who delayed childbirth finally got around to it (maybe due to better conditions?), which then didn't translate to sustained higher rates as the fertility then went down again.
Ioper
1yr ago
A way of thinking about this is that radical life extension already exists, it's called having children and being part of a tribe.
Relative pitch is just knowing what the interval between tones are. This doesn't require some grand effort to learn. Sight-reading/sight-singing isn't some rare skill.
What you said about absolute pitch might as well apply to relative pitch.
Ioper
2yr ago
What do you mean? I'm using the standard definition of power.
the capacity or ability to direct or influence the behaviour of others or the course of events.
Ioper
2yr ago
The first half of the first paragraph is good but then you're straight back to escapism.
If a one paragraph goal is what you can muster then focus on that. Don't engage with the doomerist escapism. Take a step back and look at your behaviour here, you're having a crisis and that is fine, but this kind of thinking is neither realistic nor productive.
Don't focus on the goal if you can't imagine it, focus on the small steps that will take you in the right direction.
Ioper
2yr ago
Sure, but if the cost of a cab ride approaches the cost of a ride on tax subsidised PT then the system is clearly out of balance.
Ioper
1d ago
Also, the borderers as a group aren't representative of the broader Scottish society.
If Scottish settlers in that part of America we're disproportionately drawn from the borderers they should genetically more represent that than Scottish society in general.
Ioper
1mo ago
Normally I'd agree but the situation is already unsustainable and rapidly spinning out of control. Massive fiscal reform needs to happen soon and I doubt that cuts to future entitlements that obviously were never going to happen would garner more opposition than cuts to current entitlements.
I once worked for a massive multinational company where I interacted relatively frequently with the enterprise architects. They were getting shit for their models being inaccurate, which they were, but this wasn't because they were creating erronous models but because the it architecture changed by the time they managed finish a model. When you have thousands of people constantly updating something, and not documenting what they're doing, it's hard to create an accurate up to date model.
You can of course create a high level model but that isn't very useful. What they realised had to be done was automating at least part of the model generation but since that couldn't get any budget for that (in part because they were behind on model creation!) they were stuck with manually updating their models and people not using their work.
Were their jobs bullshit? They were needed at the company but they things were structured in a way where they were unable to produce much value.
Thanks for your reply and your experiences!
BMI is short for Body Mass Index. Its your weight in kilograms divided by the square of your height in meters. In your case 109.2/(1.85^2)=31.91
BMI is medical screening tool used to categorize people by the healthyness of their body weight. 18.5-25 is normal/healthy weight, 25-30 is overweight, 30-35 is obesity, and so on. Your most recent fast took you from obesity (31.91) to normal/healthy weight (23.11).
Body fat percentage is literally what it sounds like, the percentage of the body that is fat. There are plenty of ways to measure this and most half decent modern digital scales can give you a reasonable estimate. Some people prefer this to BMI, as it can be more accurate if you have an unusual body or if you're competing in certain sports.
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