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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   1580 thread views

Transnational Thursday for August 8, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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A little maneuver warfare, as a treat.

~72 hours ago Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk oblast, and have made it to the town of Sudzha, 10 km from the border. At least two brigades have been committed. Some air defence has also been active in the region, making it challenging for the VKS to operate. It's too early judge what the goal is, and officials have yet to comment. The response from Russian officials won't shock anyone.

Some notable features:

  • Surprise! In the last year plus of fighting both Ukraine and Russia have opted for more dispersed formations, as large masses of men and metal tend to get spotted and shelled pretty quickly. The ubiquity of drone+satellite intel meant that either side getting caught flat footed on the frontline was not on many bingo cards.

  • Despite the manpower disadvantage and shortages Ukraine is still willing to commit men to riskier operations like this.

  • The tempo of Russian assaults in Donbas remains unchanged, for now.

Some thoughts:

With the middle east stealing all the oxygen in the international news room Ukraine has been out of the new cycle for awhile. It's been even longer since it's had a high profile win. So a strong motivator for Ukrainian strategists is likely to be to get some positive press and a morale boost.

Life or deathpromotion for Gerasimov? Russia probably shouldn't haven't been caught off guard. I find it increasingly likely that like Shoigu before him, Gerasimov will be promoted into a position where he remains close to Putin, but his incompetency can do the least harm. And someone less-loyal-but-more-competent will be found to fill his shoes.

The raid is humiliating, but probably not game-changing. Ukraine is able to penetrate deeply, because it's driving along undefended highways through poorly defended landscape, but they will have to commit many more additional resources lest they overextend themselves like Napoleon or, well, Gerasimov in 2022.

There are multiple possible explanations for that:

  • it's a bargaining chip for the upcoming peace talks: "if you want us to leave Kursk, you'll have to leave Melitopol" or something
  • it's a way to force Russia to the negotiation table: "what do you want, mobilize more people, or finish the war? Because the border is loooong and you can't prevent us from doing this again and again"
  • it's a consolation goal, "the war will have to end soon, and we need to do something not to demoralize the army completely"

There are more:

  • Trying to force troop rotations away from the front inside Ukraine
  • Making the war less palatable to Russia by forcing conscripts to engage in battle
  • Trying to force Russia to keep attacking as their offensive culminates in order to extract favourable attrition/prevent them from comfortably entrenching their gains in Ukraine.
  • Hedging in case of a Trump victory by making a "ceasefire" unpalatable to Russia by holding russian territory.
  • A combination of all of the above and seeing what sticks.

Might this backfire on Ukraine by allowing Putin to cast it as a defensive war, giving him a freer hand to employ conscripts?

Use of conscripts would technically mean a greater manpower replacement sustainability but at a cost of popularity.

As such, that is an explicit goal of Ukraine's. They want a greater use of conscripts by Russia. Would it be good or bad for the outcome of the war, who knows?

Use of conscripts would technically mean a greater manpower replacement sustainability but at a cost of popularity.

I don't know what is the mood like in Russia right now, but a defensive use of conscripts while volunteers focus on the offensive might be something you could sell to people.

Russia isn't manpower constrained given current recruitment methods (at the moment anyway), they materiel constrianed, which is why I said it would mean greater manpower replacement sustainability.

They can't outfit, mechanize and give air support to another army in addition to what they already have. If they could, they would have already.

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