Isomorphic_reasoning
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User ID: 961
If you're sure that most people are going to pick blue, or if you think a small majority are going to pick red but your uncertainty is just wide enough to make you think you might be the tie-breaking vote, you picking blue has the higher EV!
One caveat here, this is EV of lives saved which counts your life as equal in value to a random persons life. By revealed preference of how people actually live their lives almost everyone values their own life at least an order of magnitude higher than a random persons life. Taking that into account I think red should be prefered in the majority but not all situations. Heres the graph for when red is prefered using a 10x multiplier on your own life (link isn't working but I just added a zero to your expression it goes to a small blue region in the corner and red ahead everywhere else) https://academo.org/demos/3d-surface-plotter/?expression=if(10%2F2*(1%2Berf((x-1%2F2)%2F(ysqrt(2))))-1%2F(2ysqrt(2pi))exp(-1%2F2((1%2F2-x)%2Fy)%5E2)%3E0%2C1%2C0)&xRange=0%2C1&yRange=0.01%2C1&resolution=100
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
The key to an optimal outcome here and in life is to develop the character to choose blue and develop a community who chooses blue. Reducing everything to a calculation of the optimal individualist outcome ends up degrading the spirit and the self.
Not quite. That's usually the case with a lot of these cooperation dilemmas but this one has the feature that everyone choosing red is just as optimal as everyone choosing blue
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I feel like you're approaching this as if you have a lot more control than you actually do. If you expect 80% of people to choose red sure it's tragic that 20% of people are going to die but you can't stop that tragedy by picking blue too. You're only killing yourself
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
The choice isn't as obvious as either side is making it out to be.
Let n be the number of other pill takers. Let p1 be the probability that strictly less than half of the other pill takers choose blue, let p2 be the probability that exactly half of the other pill takers choose blue. Choosing blue accomplishes 2 things:
It kills you with probability p1
It saves n/2 people with probability p2
Is this a good trade off? Unless you don't care about other people at all or don't care about your own life at all the answer is: it depends on the ratio between p1 and p2. This ratio in turn depends upon a lot of factors, the specific population of pill takers, the specific formulation of the question, the amount of time alotted to discuss before a decision must be made etc.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I think you're using a different definition of "can pick red" than the people you are talking to
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
If the child can disavow the contract before they ever have to pay it never meaningfully existed. This is just the parents taking out a loan and hoping the child will eventually help them pay it back
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
As an American libertarian, absolutely not. I hate the rise of trumpism because it's opposed to my principles in many ways
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Kindergarteners can't meaningfully agree to give up their future earnings
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
For the third one i don't think "they" refers to blacks. It refers to people who don't support law and order. He's linking together vagrants on the subway with the lawyers and politicians who empower them.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Not the late term ones
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I think one major problem with this style of argumentation is that while it is very good at exposing contradictions and flaws in a specific person's understanding of an issue that does not always translate into exposing contradictions or flaws in the philosophical or political positions themselves. It's perfectly possible to give a false proof of a true statement and when your debate partner rips apart that proof it might make the audience think that this means your conclusion was false, but it doesn't actually imply this. I sometimes watch debate videos and I often find myself frustrated that the person who I agree with is giving such bad arguments, I want to yell at them through the screen.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Yeah that version sounds much more like standard nepotism. I was thinking specifically about the version where a spousal hire is offered as an incentive to a new recruit.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
It's not university level rules that prevent this. It's federal legislation
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
The funniest part is that if we look at the actual talent levels in purely physics the white husband might actually be the better one in this scenario. Affirmative action reaches truly obscene proportions at the top level like stanford physics professors (this makes sense, the father right you go on the bell curve the more a 1 SD difference in means affects the availability ratio)
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I actually think this is economically distinct from nepotism. With standard nepotism you have a principal agent problem. The hiring manager is supposed to be acting on behalf of the institution when he awards the position but he instead acts to benefit himself by hiring an underqualified family member. This is in essence the hiring manager stealing value from the institution that employs him and if that's a publicly funded instead he is in essence stealing from the tax payers.
But spousal hiring is different. The spousal hire is awarded as part of a negotiation in order to attract the superior researcher and thus it serves the interest of the institution by allowing them to attract better talent.
I don't think this is true for standard birth control. I know it's true for the morning after pill but I think normal birth control stops ovulation
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I'm generally opposed to lowering standards but given that many colleges do offer a precalculus level course that counts for college credit this is probably a good thing
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I can attest from personal experience that when i take a couple weeks off from the gym junk food is more appealing and when I'm really pushing myself vegetables and lean protein are delicious
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
If literal welfare queens feel no guilt at providing for their children by extracting wealth from the productive, an average man should surely not feel guilt in creating more average kids that will go on to do average, productive things.
The logic here is broken. You switched from an example of someone who doesn't feel guilt with no exploration of whether or not they should feel guilt to saying that someone else should not feel guilt.
It would be perfectly consistent to say that both the welfare queen and the man passing on mediocre gene should feel guilt and the fact that the welfare queen does not actually feel this guilt is merely a reflection of her poor moral character.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Dieting isn't fun so they choose the easy option. It's not impossible for them to eat less. If you put a gun to their head they'd do it but they just don't want it bad enough to go through the discomfort
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Self control is a perfectly good solution to fatness. It won't solve the obesity epidemic because people refuse to apply it, not because it doesn't work
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Maybe I'm projecting but it's possible he halfway wanted to be found out. Like he wishes he could post his more risque views in public but is scared of the consequences. Being a public figure and having to hide some of your beliefs all the time would be stressful
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Its only the most common position because most people have never really confronted the evidence. The average person on the street doesn't even know that races have different average IQs or if they do they think they disappear by accounting for simple cofounders
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
This would be true for an exponential distrubution but it is false for a normal distribution
You're really reaching to add things to the situation that aren't present in the initial scenario
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