NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
6d ago
My very quick estimates, little more that gut feelings + looking a bit for sources:
AI:
- Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: Pass.
- We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 10%
- Anthropic announces IPO: 40%
- A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 20%
- AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: Pass
- A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: NA. Very dependent on what marketing term people use.
- OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 50%
- A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure: 40%
US Domestic politics:
- Democrats have a majority in the House: 75%
- Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 40%
- Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 30%
- A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 25%, but not sure.
- total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 60%
- Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: Pass
- Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 10%
- Trump is impeached: 5%
- A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member): 7% if only those specific categories, if including someone like Charlie Kirk them much higher.
Wars:
- Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 70%, has already done so
- Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 70%
- China invades Taiwan: 5%
- US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20%, hard for Congress to give the go ahead.
China:
- Official GDP growth below 4%: 30%
- Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026. 15%, going with https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dpDA
- Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy. Pass
- SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below. Pass
Economics:
- US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth).
- S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25. 70%
- US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, 35%
- Bitcoin above $150k at any point, pass
- YoY inflation exceeds 4%, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm, unclear since it's so easy to torture and they changed the BLS chief.
Technology:
- Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing). Pass
- Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches. Pass
- Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers. 40%
- US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR). 55%
NunoSempere
8d ago
I've been reading King, Warrior, Magician, Lover, on Jungian psychology. It makes the point that there are positive mature masculine patterns/archetypes/stereotypes, and the book goes over how they look like. I'm probably aiming at the Magician pattern and coming from the precocious child pattern.
NunoSempere
10d ago
Some items I'm looking at:
Geopolitics
United States
Trump announces new class of U.S. battleships named after himself
Rest of the Americas
Iran and Venezuela Strengthen Alliance Against US Actions: Cooperation to Combat Caribbean Piracy
U.S. strikes another alleged drug-smuggling boat in eastern Pacific
US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say | Reuters
Great Satan US Steals Tanker Off Venezuela in Another Act of Piracy
Russia evacuates diplomats' families from Venezuela as US seizes oil tankers
Europe
EU anti-Russian influence operations, also decried as censorship
Pair convicted of plotting gun attack on mass gathering of Jews in Machester
Middle East
Israel plans to invest $110 billion to develop its indigenous defense industry.
Iran
Iran: 357 Executed Since November 22
Iran refuses inspection of nuclear sites until IAEA provides new guidelines after bombing
Gaza
Government announces 19 new West Bank settlements and legalized outposts | The Times of Israel
Land Grab: Inside Israel's Escalating Campaign for Control of the West Bank
Yemen
Asia
Japan's attempt to 'go nuclear' must be prevented, says North Korea
India announces USD 450 million reconstruction package for Sri Lanka after Cyclone Ditwah
India/Pakistan
Pollution in New Delhi is so bad that people's DNA is getting damaged
Air Pollution in New Delhi,India: Effecting: DNA, Reproduction, Grand Children
Africa
Summary of Sudan toll in numbers
Hundreds of thousands newly displaced as Islamic State insurgency expands in Mozambique
President Trump announces strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria
Biorisks
Resistance to antifungal therapies
Artificial Intelligence
Google 2025 recap: Research breakthroughs of the year
ARC-AGI 2: Poetiq reaches 75% at less $8 / task
More tech
Russia's new anti-satellite weapon project would target Starlink with space shrapnel | AP News
Drones causing alarm in Thailand airport
Economy
Climate and Nature
Others
NunoSempere
30d ago
I also gained the ability to parse reddit, from which:
Serbia’s Krušik arms plant sees second explosion in 3 months https://old.reddit.com/r/serbia/comments/1pe6sc3/druga_eksplozija_u_kru%C5%A1iku_u_3_meseca/
US travel ban from selected countries https://old.reddit.com/r/USCIS/comments/1pd6ix5/uscis_pause_and_review_megathread/
GPS spoofing in Eastern Europe. I don't understand what the significance of this is. https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1pdqpdm/comment/ns7kc2h/
4.3M Chrome users infected in malware campaign https://www.koi.ai/blog/4-million-browsers-infected-inside-shadypanda-7-year-malware-campaign
Marine algal stuff https://old.reddit.com/r/Adelaide/comments/1pc2nl3/marine_harmful_algal_symposium_5th_december_2025/
NunoSempere
30d ago
Some headlines:
Latin America
The Angry Tide of the Latin American Far Right
Trump Warns of Expanded Military Operations Against Venezuela
Europe
UK slams Putin 'sabre rattling' after he says Russia ready for Europe war and digs in on Ukraine peace talks
Ukraine talks 'productive' but more work needed, Rubio says - BBC News
Middle East
Iran
Iran’s Escalating Air Pollution Crisis
(they use mazut)
Gaza
Israel launches airstrike in southern Gaza after earlier attack by militants wounded 5 soldiers
Over 350 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since ceasefire, authorities say. Is this high?
Asia
HK housing complex fire a warning for Taiwan, since they can observe the repression of protesters afterwards.
Wang Yi and Lavrov jointly emphasized safeguarding the outcomes of World War II. Putin also signed a visa-free order for Chinese citizens.
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh sentences UK Labour MP Tulip Siddiq in absentia to two years in jail for corruption
25% increase in terror incidents in 2025 in Pakistan, think tank report says
India rejected Pakistan's claim that New Delhi denied overflight clearance to Pakistani aircraft carrying humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka
Africa
UN warns Sudan's Kordofan faces mass atrocities as fighting spreads
200,000 children to die this year because of foreign aid cuts
Tanzanian activist blocked from Instagram after mobilising election protests
Tanzania: US Reviews Ties With Tanzania Over Repression, Post-Election Violence
EU split on Tanzania aid after violent crackdown
Trump hosts signing of peace deal between leaders of DR Congo and Rwanda
E.U Parliament Halts $174 Million Aid to Tanzania
Artificial Intelligence
Amazon agents as a service
OpenAI becomes for-profit, gives Microsoft 27% stake. Microsoft will retain rights to OpenAI’s confidential research methods until either an independent expert panel verifies that AGI has been reached or through 2030, whichever comes first, and will keep some post‑AGI commercial rights.
OpenAI's GPT-5.2 'code red' response to Google is coming next week
TPUv7: Google Takes a Swing at the King
Google has moved from internal TPU usage to aggressively commercializing TPUv7 “Ironwood” systems: it is selling complete racks to customers and renting capacity via GCP, with Anthropic as the marquee customer. Google is prioritizing external adoption by ramping TPU software support: efforts include a native PyTorch TPU backend.
Anthropic's Claude 'Soul Document' extracted from Opus 4.5 weights
More tech
China has its own autarkik and probably superior version of Android now. The US is afraid of it.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The drafts I sometimes post on Thursday are by myself, but I have a larger team that does other things (e.g., parsing Twitter, reddit, making sense of stuff when wars start, etc.) We also wanted to have an emergency response team.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I am interacting with Paraguayans, which have a simplified and in a sense more rational version of Spanish with consistent verb endings. Despite being landlocked, it does have a navy, which patrols its rivers.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The Motte is a pretty good intelligence agency though :), I wonder how we'd do in the case of another covid/world war/civil war/memetic strain/AI bamboozlement/whatever
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The crisis is in the connection to the broader context, for instance, the Houthis might start attacking tankers again if this gets back enough. But probably not.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I fundraised $500K for the nonprofit I'm running; it arrived a few days ago in our bank account. This means I get to run my small intelligence agency for another year.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some headlines:
Geopolitics
United States
Rest of the Americas
US escalates its campaign against 'narco-terrorism' in Latin America with the launch of Operation Southern Spear
cuban government acknowledges out-of-control dengue and chikungunya outbreaks, responds with slogans and propaganda
Europe
DR Congo and M23 rebel group sign a framework agreement for a peace deal in Qatar
Middle East
Trump hosts Syria's new ruler in dramatic turnaround
Iran
Gaza
Hamas says fighters holed up in Rafah will not surrender | Reuters
Yemen
Yemen’s Houthis appear to pull back from Red Sea shipping attacks Houthis News Al Jazeera
Asia
China was able to detect the need for an implement a measure to avoid a Chinese and American satellite from colliding, indicating that it now has greater situational awareness in space
Japanese Prime Minister Koshi Sanae's stated that a crisis in Taiwan could justify Japan's collective self-defense
Former Bangladeshi minister accused USAID and the Bill Clinton family of supporting the riots in 2024 that led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Thailand suspends Cambodia 'peace deal' after soldiers injured
At least 12 martyred, 21 injured in suicide bombing outside Islamabad court
India/Pakistan
'We are in a state of war': Pakistan minister sounds alarm after suicide bombing kills 12; blames Kabul
Smaller terrorist attack in India
Ex-Bangladesh leader charged with crimes against humanity wants vote ban lifted
Africa
Sudanese leader rules out any truce or peace with paramilitary RSF unless it lays down arms
Sudan conflict: RSF's ceasefire move seen as tactical deception
U.N. migration agency warns Sudan relief operations are 'on the brink of collapse' - Washington Times
TikTok star publicly executed by al-Qaeda jihadists in Mali as ANOTHER African country is gripped by Islamist bloodshed
Over 200 killed as Boko Haram, ISWAP fight for Supremacy in Lake Chad
Biorisks
Ukraine, Gaza, Syria...: Thanks to wars, bacteria turning antibiotics useless
Deaths linked to antibiotic-resistant superbugs rose 17% in England in 2024
Chronic kidney disease continues rising in prevalence.
Another person is hospitalized in the U.S. with bird flu
NunoSempere
2mo ago
So, I've been living in Paraguay since February 2024. I've recently started giving some thought to where to put my money. Paraguay is attractive because it's soo capital starved. I have $140K to deploy (I've put a different chunk in the stock market)
Some options:
- Real state. I can buy a large appartment in a good neighbourhood for $80K, or a small apartment in a less good neighbourhood for ~$30K. A house in a good neighbourhood is a bit outside my budget ($170K), but a house in a less good neighbourhood wouldn't be (<$100K). A single apartment in a good zone has the that it can be either investment or consuption, i.e., I could try to rent it and if I don't just move out of my current apartment. A friend also pointed me towards allotments, i.e., buying up a larger territory and dividing it up into lots for houses which people buy on installments; apparently this is very profitable. Another possibility is to buy houses "de remate", i.e., which have been expropriated for people because of debts &c. These can be significantly cheaper but require paying 50% upfront.
- Local businesses. They are generally very very capital constrained. For instance, I'm turning a food stall across the street into a larger restaurant (the guy's family owns the land). Another option is to rent motorcycles, very profitable if I can put up the capital and let someone else take the hassle. I expect this kind of thing is super profitable, the problem is that finding local businesses just takes a lot of time, trust building and relationship building.
Overall I see Paraguay as growing rapidly and thus I see an opportunity there, but I'm confused about what shape that takes for me. I'd appreciate thoughts, reading recommendations, etc.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
My forecasters are split:
Forecasters now believe there’s a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week.
How can I answer a question like that? Are there plans for a strike on Venezuela? Who would say that? Supposing there were. Would I say that to you? “Yes, we have plans, we have very secret plans!” Who would say that? You know, what kind of a question is it?—Trump
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Some headlines I'm reading:
Geopolitics
United States
Trump tells Pentagon to resume testing US nuclear weapons | Reuters
Rest of the Americas
Largest ever police raid in Rio de Janeiro leaves at least 132 dead, public defender’s office says. Approximately 2,500 police officers participated in the operation.
At least 132 killed in Rio police raid, officials say
Europe
Russia has tested a new nuclear powered, nuclear-capable missile
Middle East
Israeli raid in Lebanon kills municipal worker
Israeli soldiers raid municipal building in southern Lebanon, kill employee | AP News
Iran
The People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, a resistance group in Iran with good English publicity, organized protests, reports Iran News Update, as well as their twitter presence. Our sources from Iran tell us that [hopefully they'll get back to us by Monday]. Some background on the MEK.
Gaza
Deadliest day in Gaza since ceasefire as Israel launches wave of strikes, accusing Hamas of breaching truce | CNN
Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 104, health ministry says
Netanyahu Orders New Strikes on Gaza as U.S. Insists Ceasefire Still Holding
Israel kills more than 100 in strikes after soldier's death, says it still backs ceasefire.
Yemen
Asia
Thai, Cambodia leaders sign expanded ceasefire deal with Trump present.
Text transcript of the Ministry of Defense regular press conference, October 2025
Plenary session on national defense and military modernization as it decides on its 15th five-year plan
India/Pakistan
15% of deaths in Delhi in 2023 linked to air pollution
Africa
Over 1,850 Sudanese civilians killed in North Darfur this year, UN says, calls for El-Fasher siege to end
Macron’s great lakes peace push falters amid gunfire and skepticism over Goma airport plans | Africanews
French President Emmanuel Macron announced the reopening of Goma airport in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for humanitarian flights, and revealed a pledge for 1.5B EUR in international aid. M23 rebels, who control the area, called the plan "inopportune, disconnected from realities on the ground".
UN alarmed by ‘terrifying’ situation in Sudan’s El Fasher, calls for immediate ceasefire | UN News
RSF claims capture of El Fasher after fierce battles with Sudanese army
Key Sudan city falls to paramilitary group following 18-month siege
Satellite images reveal evidence of mass killings in Sudan's El Fasher
Reported massacre at hospital in Sudan’s El Fasher leaves 460 dead | UN News
RSF kills ‘at least 1,500 people’ in Sudan’s el-Fasher
At least 460 people killed in El Fasher's last functioning hospital in Sudan
Tanzania opposition says over 700 killed in vote protests
Biorisks
H9N2 Bird Flu Virus Could Pose Human Pandemic Risk, Experts Warn
New virus with potential to spark another pandemic discovered in bats in South America.
To combat the spread of H5N1, officials in the states of Saarland and Hamburg have enacted bans on free-range poultry farming
Germany culls over 400K poultry
Artificial Intelligence
More tech
Economy
Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths | Reuters
Trump-Xi 'amazing' summit brings tactical truce, not major reset | Reuters
Climate and Nature
Others
Chinese fentanyl trafficking operator arrested in Cuba
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Yeah, but as the OP highlights, patria comes from pater, padre, (cognates vater, father); compare https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/father and https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/patria#Latin.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
One must avoid not only the useless actions, but also the useless thoughts. -- Marcus Aurelius according to my notes.
If nothing matters, what do I chose to do?
"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.” - Heinlein
Life is not a highschool exam; you don't have to solve it on your own.
"The cup is already broken" https://www.themotte.org/comment/216921?context=3#context
the fear was always worse than the reality
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn't make it worse. Not being open about it doesn't make it go away. And because it's true, it is what is there to be interacted with. Anything untrue isn't there to be lived. People can stand what is true, for they are already enduring it.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
NunoSempere
2mo ago
NunoSempere
2mo ago
In Europe! But not in South America!
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Thanks, mentioned you in the final version
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Mmmh, thanks!
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Hey, I use the Fusion ones, probably out of a lack of familiarity with other options. So good to have this thread.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
pull along the blade
What does this mean?
These seem a bit high, but otherwise reasonable. Some leeway in how to interpret "approves new nuclear reactor construction".
More options
Context Copy link