NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
21hr ago
Hey, I use the Fusion ones, probably out of a lack of familiarity with other options. So good to have this thread.
NunoSempere
21hr ago
pull along the blade
What does this mean?
NunoSempere
1d ago
NunoSempere
1d ago
Some headlines I'm reading:
AI getting good at detecting bugs and vulnerabilities in curl
UN imposes 'snapback' sanctions on Iran
NATO boosts Baltic surveillance as drone threats rise in Europe
US Marines set to conduct joint exercises to gether with Panamanian security forces. This announcement comes at a precarious time, with fears escalating regarding a potential U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is situated approximately 925 kilometers east of Panama. Donald Trump has increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, dispatching eight warships, a nuclear submarine, and ten fighter jets to Puerto Rico, supposedly to combat drug trafficking but likely targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This naval build-up marks the most substantial in the region since the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, an event that left hundreds of civilians dead.
Fears of disaster as Russian nuclear submarine reports major malfunction in Mediterranean | The Standard
Dozens dead from hunger and disease as devastation decimates North Darfur
Russia a ‘paper tiger’: How Trump changed his position on Ukraine, NATO Russia-Ukraine war News Al Jazeera
Tony Blair in discussions to run transitional Gaza authority
Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in 9 Years, 135K men
Widespread anti-Israel protests after it stops an aid/PR flotilla
Eurovision Song Contest: Organisers EBU to hold vote on Israel's participation
Trump gives Hamas ‘three or four days’ to respond to Gaza peace plan or face ‘a very sad end’
More kids with the flu are getting severely ill or dying as vaccine rates fall, CDC reports
CDC reports highlight 2024-25 flu season's deadly impact on US kids; highest since the H1N1 pandemic in 2009-10. Not significant shares of the population though.
Electronic Arts Sold to Saudi Arabia and Trump's Son-in-Law (Jared Kushner) for $55B
Peace in Democratic Republic of Congo Mostly a Promise, Mission Head Tells Security Council, Stressing That Reality Still Marred with Violence
Congo’s Former President Sentenced to Death in Absentia
India released some statistics for 2023. Dowry-related cases rose by 14%, with 6.1K women killed.
UN approves larger force to combat Haiti gang violence
NunoSempere
1d ago
I mean, yeah, in a full collapse. But it's tricky to know how likely that really is. Like, if I see papers like https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b and https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w, unclear whether these are dire warnings I really need to pay attention to, or trends that are exaggerated by ideologically captured scientists who have the incentive to overexaggerate the importance of their own research. Matters in real life decisions, too, as I'll soon be buying a house in Paraguay
NunoSempere
1d ago
It's the name of an organization that performs surveillance for all large-scale risks. I founded it and dedicate the majority of my time to it. We post stuff here[^1].
[^1]: Actually on blog.sentinel-team.org, but the redirection doesn't seem to be working, weird, looking into it.
NunoSempere
2d ago
Executive summary
Chikungunya is an exceptionally painful though rarely deadly mosquito-borne disease. Its prevalence is expanding as climate change spreads the range of the mosquitoes which carry it.
Disease basics
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV; see ECDC fact sheet, US CDC fact sheet, and WHO fact sheet). Symptoms of acute chikungunya include a rapid-onset high fever, severe joint pain, joint swelling, muscle pain, headache, nausea, fatigue and rash. The incubation period is usually 3-7 days, with a range of 1-12 days, and symptoms typically last about 10 days. Approximately 15%20and%20joint%20pains.)-40% of CHIKV infections are asymptomatic. A recent study estimates a burden of disease of 17.8M cases annually, about a fifth of dengue’s.
Reports of people who have had the disease describe it as exceptionally painful. However, the case fatality rate (CFR) is ≤0.1%, similar to that for seasonal flu. Infants, especially newborns (age <30 days, CFR 3.8% in 2022-2023 in Paraguay), and, to a far lesser extent, elderly people with other health problems (CFR 0.6% among people aged ≥80 years in 2022-2023 in Paraguay) face the greatest risks of severe disease and death.
There is no specific antiviral treatment for acute chikungunya. According to the WHO, treatment “includes addressing fever and joint pain with anti-pyretics and optimal analgesics, drinking plenty of fluids and general rest. ... Paracetamol or acetaminophen are recommended for pain relief and reducing fever until dengue infections are ruled out, as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can increase the risk of bleeding.”
In addition to acute disease, CHIKV infection often causes long-term health problems as well. About 30-40% of people who get chikungunya have recurrent joint pain, in some cases for years. Rarely, myocarditis, hepatitis and ocular and neurological disorders can develop.
Vaccines
Two vaccines are approved for use in populations at risk, but they aren’t widely available. And the license for one of them, Ixchiq, was just suspended in the US, after administration in adults age ≥60 was paused in May because of serious safety concerns; the US FDA states that “one death from encephalitis directly attributable to the vaccine” and over 20 serious cases of chikungunya-like illness have been reported for the live-attenuated vaccine. However, the vaccine manufacturer states that recent adverse vaccine effects are "consistent with those previously reported during clinical trials and post-marketing experience." After imposing a similar license restriction in May, the European Medicines Agency lifted its temporary restriction on July 25.
Both vaccines currently in use appear likely to be very effective against infection. Phase 3 clinical trial data show that the Ixchiq vaccine elicits protective levels of antibodies in 97.8% of study participants 28 days after vaccination, which persists in 96% of participants at 6 months after vaccination, and 95% of patients four years afterwards. The second vaccine, Vimkunya, a virus-like particle vaccine, elicited protective antibodies pro in 98% of clinical trial participants aged 12–64 years and in 87% of participants aged ≥65 years, 3 weeks after vaccination. The percentages of study participants with protective levels of antibodies fell to 85% and 76% for the two age groups, respectively, after 6 months.
Several other vaccine candidates are in varying stages of development.
Where and how does chikungunya spread?
Large outbreaks and sporadic cases of chikungunya currently occur in the Americas, Asia and Africa, and small outbreaks occasionally occur in Europe. CHIKV was first identified in Tanzania in 1952 and has since spread around the world. It has been detected in >110 countries to date.
Non-human primates in Africa, bitten by forest-dwelling Aedes mosquitoes, are the original, natural reservoirs of CHIKV. Now, humans are the largest reservoir of CHIKV.
Both Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus (“Asian tiger”) mosquitoes carry the virus and are responsible for most transmission. Local mosquito-borne transmission in humans has been seen in all regions of the world with established populations of these mosquitoes. Both species bite humans primarily during the daytime, and while both species bite outdoors, Ae. aegypti also bites indoors.
Chikungunya can also spread through blood transfusions or other interactions with infected blood. It can also be transmitted in pregnancy to a fetus, or at birth to a newborn. CHIKV has not been found in breast milk.
In China
Chikungunya saw an outbreak in China this year, developing from 478 cases by the 17th of July, 3K cases by the 24th of July, 10K cases by August 8th. Monthly data for September is not yet out.
Although larger, China is further apart culturally, and thus granular data on disease spread is harder for us to find. Initial English-language reporting seems to have stemmed from a warning from the CDC in Hong Kong. Because of better data availability we turn to looking at this years’ chikungunya outbreak in Europe:
In Europe
In the short term
Chikungunya continues to spread in Europe. As of August 27, 227 cases have been confirmed in Italy, and 63 cases in France in 2025. Many in Europe are wondering, how much is chikungunya going to spread, and when is it going to stop? In the short-term, this year, not much.
First, let’s look at previous outbreaks in Europe. Six outbreaks with local spread have been reported in Europe before the current outbreak, with the first outbreak occurring in 2006. All of these outbreaks were in Italy, France or Spain. In four of these outbreaks, fewer than 20 cases of local transmission were reported; another outbreak saw over 200 suspected cases, and the largest outbreak to date saw nearly 800 confirmed and suspected cases. All of these outbreaks ended.
The fundamental reason why these outbreaks ended, and why the current outbreak will likely end soon, is that Ae. aegypti is absent in nearly all of Europe, and while _Ae. albopictus _is established in much of southern Europe, _Ae. albopictus _adults generally die off in the fall in Europe. When the adult mosquitoes die, transmission stops, and outbreaks end.
(Sadly The Motte doesn't allow for images, so just giving the source) (Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/aedes-albopictus-current-known-distribution-june-2025 )
(Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/aedes-aegypti-current-known-distribution-june-2025 )
Currently, chikungunya case clusters are active in northern Italy (Bologna, Verona and Modena provinces), one unspecified province in Italy, and in over 20 departments throughout southern, western and northeastern France. Ae. albopictus adults are likely to die off in all of these regions over the coming weeks to months, as temperatures become inhospitably cold. And when the adult mosquitoes die, chikungunya will stop spreading in Europe.
Spatial distribution of locally acquired chikungunya virus disease cases in 2025 through 27 August 2025:
And here is this same map as of the 2nd of October; it has spread a bit further:
Some Ae. albopictus populations in Europe are starting to become adapted to the cold, including some populations in Rome, Italy and the Region of Murcia, Spain. So it’s not impossible that some transmission could continue in southern France or perhaps in new, more southern areas of Europe.
Forecasters think there’s an x% chance (range, y% to z%) that the current outbreak in Europe will end this fall rather than continue through winter and into 2026.
In the United States?
Last week, authorities reported on a local case in New York, i.e., not associated with travel. The CDC page on Chikungunya in the US doesn’t yet confirm it, but it hopefully will be a good page to watch for an increasing number of cases—although recent cuts from the Trump administration might have left the CDC somewhat under-resourced.
The big picture: shifting climate patterns will change the distribution of diseases
At Sentinel, we have been tracking potentially worrisome diseases in our weekly brief over the last year. In general, we are seeing many diseases, particularly those originally tropical, expand and shift their geographic ranges as a result of climate change. Europe becoming more hospitable to mosquitoes leading to the spread of chikungunya is just one example. In the US, we saw the spread of the West Nile Virus, also a mosquito-borne disease.
Beyond mosquito-borne diseases, Spain and Greece faced alerts due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), spread by ticks. In the US, cases of alpha-gal syndrome exploded, carried by ticks described as “a cross between a lentil and a velociraptor”. In general, we are seeing many diseases expand and shift their geographic ranges as a result of climate change.
Looking to the longer term, it looks very likely that chikungunya transmission will eventually occur year-round, as warmer conditions in Europe expected with climate change will likely allow Ae. albopictus adults to survive all year. Chikungunya will likely become established in Europe, as it is on other continents.
A big unknown is the impact of the changing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which normally warms Europe but which could slow down or collapse. If it does so, Europe would become colder, stopping the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.
Overall, Chikungunya in particular doesn’t seem like a COVID-level risk, but the shifting pattern of diseases as a whole seems [statement of severity]
Some possible forecasting questions my team might forecast on:
- Forecasters think there’s an x% chance (range, y% to z%) that the current outbreak in Europe will end this fall rather than continue through winter and into 2026.
- Chikungunya numbers in Europe will exceed X next year
- Chikungunya will exceed 10 cases in the US next year?
- A newly expanded tropical disease will kill over 1M people in any one year in any of the next ten?
- What other operationalizations for the longer term thing?
I might also add a statement that my team may or may not trade on the above, in the style of Hindenburg research, because I think it's cool. But the play, if any, probably involves buying the stocks of the vaccine makers next year once it has faded from salience and before it fades into view again in Europe's/the US's summer.
NunoSempere
8d ago
Some headlines I'm reading, comments welcome:
Sanctions on Iran to automatically resume on September 28th. [to do: find link better than Daily Mail]
Qatar Seeks 'israeli' Apology to Restart Gaza Mediation: Report
Drone fired by Yemen's Houthis wounds 22 in southern Israel, in a rare breach of missile defenses
The WHO warns about rapid growth in cholera cases.
China continues to do military exercises & development
El-Fasher: Drone strike on Sudan mosque kills 78, medic tells BBC
France orders hospitals to be ready for war by next year as Germany warns it is on alert should Putin use forthcoming military drills to attack Europe (Daily Mail)
Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns
Germany plans for 1,000 wounded troops per day in case of conflict with Russia
Putin offers Trump one-year extension to nuclear weapons treaty
Drone activity confirmed at multiple Denmark airports
Jihadist groups create 'corridor of violence' targeting Christians in Sahel – Catholic World Report
Isis Kids Planned a Violent 'Caliphate Revival' on Discord back in 2022.
Trump warns Venezuela will pay 'incalculable' price if doesn't take back migrants
Trump warns Venezuela to take back prisoners or face 'incalculable' price
Hamas reportedly preparing for street-to-street fighting as Israeli forces near Gaza City centre
Gaza-bound flotilla says it was attacked by drones, as Italy and Spain send help
Gaza aid flotilla rejects Israel's demand to dock in Ashkelon, calls request part of blockade
10 killed, at least 2 decapitated, in Ecuador prison riot just days after deadly jailbreak
Estimated 16,500 climate change deaths during Europe summer
UK, Canada and Australia announce formal recognition of Palestine, with wave of Israel’s allies to follow | Palestinian territories
Keir Starmer's statement in full on the recognition of Palestine
Last pastor forced out of war-torn Sudanese city, el Fasher
Italy sends naval vessel to help Gaza aid flotilla
Secret Service takes down network that could have crippled New York cell service
Israel strikes Yemen's Sanaa after Houthi drone attack on Eilat
Russia is reportedly selling military equipment, technology, expertise, training to China in China's bid to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027.
The U.S. government announced new and modified contracts worth more than $100M to enhance biodefense preparedness, particularly through procurements from Emergent BioSolutions.
Spanish warship sets sail to support Gaza-bound aid flotilla
Various air force
trials and exercises in China
Senior Hamas official defends ‘high price’ of Oct 7 for Palestinians, saying attack created ‘golden moment’ | CNN
The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has extended the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) for an additional six months Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, effective October 1. This act grants the armed forces broad powers to maintain public order in areas they designate as disturbed
NunoSempere
13d ago
Old news a this point, my observe loops are at least a weekly cadence :)
NunoSempere
13d ago
Old news by this point.
NunoSempere
14d ago
Some headlines from this week:
Geopolitics
United States
Ex-Sailor Sentenced to 12 Years in Terror Plot Targeting Naval Station Great Lakes
The Rest of the Americas
Gangs kill over 40 in Haiti's Arcahaïe as local authorities call for reinforcements
Europe
Denmark to buy $9B air defense systems as tensions with Russia grow
Middle East
"A year after Israel's pager attacks in Lebanon, survivors rebuild". Just a really funny headline
Iran
Israel strikes Yemen's Hodeidah Port twelve times after Houthi attack on Israeli airport, claiming it was used by the Houthis for weapons transfers from Iran.
A former U.S. Navy sailor, Xuanyu Harry Pang, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for plotting a terrorist attack at Naval Station Great Lakes and attempting to assist the Iranian government in smuggling radioactive materials into the U.S. for a dirty bomb. Pang, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to destroy national defense premises, conducted surveillance on the base and sought maximum destructive locations in Chicago. The judge highlighted the profound betrayal by a service member against his fellow sailors, noting the potential catastrophic consequences of Pang's plans.
Gaza
Gaza hit by telecoms blackout as Israeli tanks and infantry advance
Israeli finance minister describes plans to turn Gaza into a 'real estate bonanza' as bombs hammer the enclave
More than 10% of Gaza’s population has been killed or injured, former Israeli military chief says
Yemen
Asia
SoftBank openai deal delayed
18 members of the Pakistani security forces were killed this week. Pakistan suspects Afghanistan-backed terrorists.
North Korea's Kim Jong Un oversees drone test, and approved a plan to further strengthen unmanned aerial vehicle
Kim Jong Un declares AI military drone development a ‘top priority’
Chinese Coast Guard: "Philippine boat deliberately collides with Chinese coast guard vessel despite warnings, responsibility for the collision lies entirely with the Philippines."
India/Pakistan
Pakistan hard hit this moonson
India's Modi calls for peace in Manipur, launches projects worth nearly $1 billion. Though the reception wasn't uniformly good though.
Africa
Sudan is currently experiencing the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 30.4 million people requiring assistance. The crisis has resulted in alarming rates of malnutrition
Libya: More Than 100 Sudanese Refugees Dead or Missing in Shipwrecks Off Libya
Sudan: Rebel drone strike kill dozens.
Biorisks
DR Congo begins vaccinating against new Ebola outbreak
NunoSempere
14d ago
Lol :).
But it's good news though. From an expanded brief I post on Mondays:
Tesla is aiming to produce its own (electrical) transformers. This could mitigate a possible bottleneck in the large-scale upgrade of the US electrical grid that would be needed to accommodate a large growth in demand due to AI datacenter buildout—but it might also increase resilience to large solar flares, a risk that we at Sentinel have been tracking in the background. However, we don’t see signs at this time that Tesla aims to produce any of the large power transformers (LPTs; or any newer designs, for that matter) that could fail in the event of a large solar event and are critical for grid operation; more than 80% of such transformers are imported, “with lead times of up to five years,” according to Siemens.
NunoSempere
19d ago
NunoSempere
19d ago
Because I cluster the topics semi-manually, and sometimes either the script makes a mistake, or I do.
NunoSempere
20d ago
Geopolitics
United States
Charlie Kirk killing
More Epstein emails
The Rest of the Americas
Europe
Israeli warplanes launch new airstrike on Yemeni capital
Europe has 'window of opportunity' to strengthen NATO against Russia, Swedish defense minister says
The Atlantic: The Beginning of the End of NATO. Both America and the EU are mostly defending themselves, rather than together.
Putin told White House he plans to seize Donbas by end of 2025, Zelensky says
Poland says up to four of 19 Russian drones shot down after entering airspace
Nato on high alert as Russia and Belarus start military drills on Polish border
Von der Leyen proposes suspension of EU payments and trade partnership with Israel
Middle East
Reporting is unclear about whether Qatari mediation will continue
Probably yes
At least six murdered in Jerusalem terror shooting, 21 wounded
Iran
Iran executed at least 169 people in August.
US, Israel failed to degrade Iran's nuclear, missile, air defense capabilities, says Iran Army chief
Gaza
US imposes sanctions on Palestinian groups seeking war crimes investigation against Israel
Maps: Israel has attacked six countries in the past 72 hours (Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza and a flotilla in Tunisia)
Five Additional Malnutrition Deaths Confirmed in Gaza
Gaza death toll rises as six more die from starvation
Israel strikes Hamas in Qatar
'Months of Preparation' for attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar
Hamas ready to negotiate 'immediately' after Trump's 'last warning'
Israeli military issues evacuation order for residents in Gaza City; threatens 'mighty hurricane' unless Hamas returns hostages
Israeli military evacuation order triggers panic in Gaza City
Israel warns of 'mighty hurricane' in Gaza if Hamas does not surrender
EU suspends Israel payments over Gaza, proposing sanctions to ministers
Members of the far-right anti-Muslim Infidels Motorcycle Club were hired to staff US-backed aid centers in the Gaza Strip, managed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Anti-Islamic biker gang members run security at deadly Gaza aid sites
Yemen
Asia
Afghanistan: Lifesaving services cut as Taliban bars women aid workers. Particularly bad since this is in the wake of a large earthquake at the end of August.
Nepal unrest
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh battles rising tide of dengue and chikungunya
Africa
South Sudan denies agreements to host displaced Palestinians
South Sudan suspends first vice president over treason, murder charges
South Sudan's vice president charged with murder, treason
Paramilitary launches drone strikes on Sudan capital
Human Rights Watch on increasing number of ISIS attacks in Niger
Islamists 'summarily execute' nearly 130 people including 70 worshipping during prayers in Niger bloodbath
ISIS extremists hack 50 people to death with machetes at a funeral
Biorisks
Brain-eating amoeba: Kerala reports fifth amoebic meningoencephalitis death in a month
West Nile virus cases, warnings from health officials – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
Home delivery meals linked to multistate Salmonella outbreak
Others
Musks's Tesla now doing transformers
Bellingcat: A Guide To Monitoring Conflict Amidst a Sea of Misinformation
Compared to other people in Paraguay: Extreme upper class, much more educated, top 0.1% wealthy, well connected. If I imagine myself spending the next 30 years there, my economic impact is probably pretty large, and I could shape this country, and be shaped by it, a huge deal.
Compared to people in my native Spain: Maybe upper class, but realistically well-to-do bourgeoisie. I do speak three languages and have a good, if incomplete education, but noble blood is now several generations behind me, and I'm not particularly well connected to the Spanish economic or cultural elite (though both the queen and the PM went to my highschool, XD). The term for this would be Indiano
If I compare myself against the average american, e.g. imagining I moved there: I'm doing ok, aspirational middle class. My class would really depend on my eventual wife; if she is equally well off we might end up in the upper middle class after a few decades of work, if she were more of an artsy type I'd fall down to middle middle class.
NunoSempere
25d ago
Thanks :)
NunoSempere
27d ago
The Johnny Cash version of you are my sunshine comes to mind.
NunoSempere
28d ago
Some headlines
Europe
"Therefore, if some troops appear there, especially now, during military operations, we proceed from the fact that these will be legitimate targets for destruction," Putin told an economic forum in Vladivostok.
Middle East
Syria arrests defence, interior ministry members suspected of abuses against the civilian population, particularly Druze.
Iran
Iran executing more people
Gaza
At least 21,000 children disabled in Gaza since war began, says UN committee (number seems between very fake and somewhat plausible)
Israel mobilizes reservists as it pushes into initial stages of Gaza City offensive
Yemen
Asia
"Southern Theater Command responds to joint patrols by the Philippines, Australia, and Canada: Any attempt to stir trouble in the South China Sea and create hotspots cannot succeed"
Chinese military news generally seem more bellicose this last week, covering their recent parade.
Foreign Policy on China's rising military might.
North Korea's Kim Yong Un arrives in Beijing for military parade
Xi hosts 'old friend' Putin, Kim ahead of military parade in challenge to West
China's Xi Convenes 'Axis of Upheaval' in Beijing, Sidelining Trump
Xi Jinping: Accelerate the building of a world-class military, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.
India/Pakistan
Peace agreement between insurgent groups and the Manipur government in India
Bellingcat: A Guide To Monitoring Conflict Amidst a Sea of Misinformation
Africa
A deal between the DRC and the M23 militia is not holding.
7 killed, 71 injured in RSF shelling on Sudan's El-Fasher
Rapid Support Forces commander sworn in as head of a parallel government in Sudan
Herdsmen kill seven Christians in central Nigeria
US approves $32.5 million in assistance to Nigeria to help address hunger
Biorisks
Chikungunya CDC page
HHS Abandons mRNA Vaccines, Experts Warn of Threats to U.S. Health Security (possibly old news)
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Venceréis, pero no convenceréis. Venceréis porque tenéis sobrada fuerza bruta, pero no convenceréis porque convencer significa persuadir. Y para persuadir necesitáis algo que os falta en esta lucha, razón y derecho. Me parece inútil pediros que penséis en España.
You will win, but you will not convince. You will win because you have brute force, but you will not convince because convincing involves persuading. And for persuading you need something that you are lacking in this fight, reason and law/rights. I consider it futile to ask you to think about Spain.
And indeed once the dictatorship ended, Spain did shift to the left within a generation.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I appreciate the Unamuno reference! If I remember correctly the quote is "venceréis pero no convenceréis" (you will win but you will not convince"). https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vencer%C3%A9is,_pero_no_convencer%C3%A9is
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Paraguay, nomadic, born in Spain.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Items I'm looking at this week. As in previous weeks, these are headlines, no implicit promises are made about the bias of the sources.
Geopolitics
United States
Trump cancelled $5B in foreign aid
Executive order to prosecute desecrating the American flag
The Rest of the Americas
Venezuela Sends 15,000 Troops to Border as US Warships Approach
State Department Report Warns of Escalating Violence and Human Rights Violations in Haiti
Europe
EU chief plans 7-country tour of Russian border to promote defense buildup
Russian envoys summoned after strikes hit UK, EU offices in Kyiv
Chikungunya Virus Spreads Rapidly in Europe
France reported 45 new cases and Italy 22
Noem's special adviser Corey Lewandowski holds 'veto' power on FEMA expenditures, staff says
Middle East
At least 600,000 displaced from Sudan's El-Fasher amid RSF siege: UNICEF – Middle East Monitor
Afghanistan faces severe health crisis
Iran
Iran-backed attacks in Australia
Gaza
Trump holds Gaza policy meeting with Tony Blair and Jared Kushner. Kushner seemed a bit more competent than Witkoff
Israeli army database suggests at least 83% of Gaza dead were civilians
Protests in Israel for release of hostages
Anyone in Gaza City who doesn’t evacuate ‘can die of hunger or surrender,’ Smotrich said to tell IDF chief
Eight Palestinians die of starvation and malnutrition in Gaza as humanitarian crisis deepens
Four Palestinians, Including Two Children, Die of Starvation and Acute Malnutrition in Gaza
Ten more Palestinians die due to starvation and acute malnutrition in Gaza
Israeli tanks close in on Gaza City
289 Palestinians, including 115 children, die of starvation: Gaza health ministry
This number is much higher than other reports, and maybe even chosen to meet the 2 deaths for 10K people threshold for subregions.
Colombia to progressively impose sanctions on Israel
Catholic leaders demand end to 'barbarism in plain sight' in Gaza
Israel declares Gaza City a 'dangerous combat zone', ends tactical ceasefire
U.S. Revokes Visas of Palestinian Officials Ahead of U.N. General Assembly
Yemen
Asia
Internet satellites for China
Kim Jong Un to attend China's military parade with Putin and Pezeshkian
Kim Jong-un supervises test of anti-air missiles
India/Pakistan
Pakistan evacuates thousands as India releases water from swollen rivers
Nearly 190,000 relocated in Punjab amid rising rivers
Vietnam starts mass evacuations, shuts airports as Typhoon Kajiki approaches
Bangladesh Islamist Rise Threatens Hindus Amid Election Delay Crisis
Religious intolerance and Islamist mobilisation rising in Bangladesh
Africa
DR Congo, M23 rebels resume talks in Qatar after renewed violence in east
Sudan records 1,210 new cholera cases, 36 deaths in a week
Children in Sudan's el-Fasher 'starving' after 500 days of siege: UNICEF
At least 600,000 displaced from Sudan's El-Fasher amid RSF siege: UNICEF
Africa launches Cholera response plan as Sudan faces deadly surge
Lassa Fever Cases Decline in Nigeria, But Fatality Rate Rema
Nigeria air force kills dozens of militants near Cameroon border amid rising insurgency – The North Africa Post
Nigerian military airstrikes free 76 hostages, including children and kidnapping victims
4,722 kidnapped, ₦2.57bn paid by Nigerians in two months
Vulnerable South Africans struggle to find HIV medication after U.S. foreign aid cuts
Africa Launches Continental Cholera Response Plan to Eradicate Disease by 2030 – Medafrica Times
Biorisks
Lassa Fever: Death toll rises to 159 – NCDC
WHO Warns of Drug-Resistant Whooping Cough in US
CDC vaccine officials resign while childhood vaccination rates decline
RFK, Jr. says 'let measles run its course'. That's what some said in 1990, and we had an urban health crisis
WHO warns of worsening global cholera outbreaks, urging swift response-Xinhua
How West Nile Virus Is Spreading Along the Columbia River
US Coast Guard seizes record $473M drug haul in historic operation
Artificial Intelligence
More tech
Economy
Talks of Fed reform
"North Korea’s economy grew 3.7% in 2024, the fastest annual pace of growth in eight years, driven by Pyongyang’s expanding economic and military ties with Russia."
Climate and Nature
Study finds that AMOC might not be low likelihood... if one extrapolates models into the 2100s
Others
Evidence of UFOs
Hidden dangers: The risk of America's aging dams
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The FRC considers the analysis team’s current classification (IPC Phase 5 Famine with reasonable evidence) to be plausible
While it is possible that based on the data available as of 15 August, the food entering in August may meet the estimated 62,000 MT threshold of needs, this remains unclear. Even so, this would still not be sufficient to reverse the catastrophic levels of hunger and suffering, given the many months that this threshold was not met prior.
Wheat flour has seen major price fluctuations—up to USD 30 in June and coming back down to around USD 15 in July.
Food utilization in terms of preparation remains extremely hampered by the complete lack of fuel and cooking gas to prepare food, forcing households to increasingly rely on burning rubbish across all governorates, particularly in Gaza Governorate (73%).37 No cooking gas has entered the Strip since February 2025.38 Staple foods, such as lentils and wheat flour, if poorly cooked are not well digested by the body, reducing the body’s ability to fully absorb and use the nutrients
My best guess:
- Technical threshold of IPC level 5 (2 deaths in 10K people) probably not met
- Effects of declaration of the technical threshold met unclear. If the UN was widely respected and trusted, it could have been a Schelling point. Israel disputes it.
North Korea has a secret base near China with missiles that could reach the U.S., a new report from CSIS says
Massacres in eastern Congo cast doubt on U.S. mediated peace deal
Belarus says it is looking at how to arm its missile systems with nuclear warheads
Sweden to build more nuclear plants with US or UK technology
A Russian military drone crashed in Eastern Poland during the night, causing an explosion that residents reported but resulted in no injuries. Radar systems did not detect the drone
Russian military drone crashes and explodes in eastern Poland, defence minister says
Putin demands Ukraine quit Donbas, drop NATO plans in peace proposal
Italian police arrest Ukrainian man over Nord Stream pipeline attacks
Mmmh, thanks!
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