RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
When will it stop?
Sometimes I think this is all a simulation designed to imbue some kind of pathos. The bizarreness of it all seems unnatural, in a surreal kind of way.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
It can't change thousands of genes but it does demonstrate that it's possible to change genes, that presumably there are other ways to change many genes reliably. It's like how the first powered flight makes helicopters, jump-jets, jet-packs and autogyros much more plausible.
And hey, we're talking about a world where 'the FDA were nuked tonight and we just did whatever we want to embryos for the next couple decades, ethics be damned'. We can't even imagine how rapid development would be, it'd be a different paradigm.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
Taiwan is something like 80-90% reliant on food/energy imports. Unlike China, they have no overland substitution routes. After a few months of blockade they'll run into very serious problems, regardless of whether China has amphibious capability remaining.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
Surely the companies with the largest and most powerful AI models will make profits from the development of AGI, since they'll be the ones doing it? Non-tech companies don't have the compute, they'll be the ones being automated. Microsoft, Facebook and so on will be the ones automating.
Omdia estimates the biggest H100 customers for the past quarter were Meta and Microsoft, each purchasing 150,000 GPUs. Those two companies were responsible for 300,000 units, with the other 200,000 going to Oracle, Tencent, Google, and Amazon, which reportedly bought 50,000 each.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2mo ago
Isn't this good? If pedophiles are pardoned and there's a massive fracas where people are forced to resign because it goes against the will of the people, that's democracy working as it should. In the US they pardon all kinds of creeps and weirdoes. Trump pardoned, amongst other people, a fraudster who then committed even more fraud: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/convicted-con-man-was-pardoned-trump-charged-fraud-rcna95172
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3mo ago
Meanwhile Gaza without the 10 billion or so in combined US and EU aid it receives each year
That's at least a factor of 10 overestimate.
According to figures compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, aid to Palestinians amounted to more than $40 billion between 1994 and 2020.
And that's all aid, not just EU and US! Where are you getting your numbers from?
Israel is hardly a live fire testing ground, not since 1973. It's not like they're fighting high end wars, they're dealing with insurgencies and light infantry. The US clearly hasn't learnt any useful lessons on this front - indeed US support for Israel makes it harder since it creates all these new and exciting enemies. Osama Bin Laden for instance. We don't need to infuriate hundreds of millions of people to 'test' bombs or missile defence systems against sub-Scud tier rockets.
Regardless of the situation with Palestine (which also isn't our problem except in that we help Israel bully them), we should not be assisting a state that creates so many bitter and troublesome enemies for us. If it weren't for direct US aid and geopolitical assistance like the war in Iraq, they probably wouldn't have the borders they have now, they'd likely be pre-1967.
The Arab Oil Embargo, the Iraq War, this mess in the Red Sea, not to mention the USS Liberty - Israel is a massive deadweight that needs to be dropped, the sooner the better.
aren't bootlicking
Do you really not listen to the rhetoric from US politicians?
Pelosi couldn't get the boot out of her mouth if she tried: "I have said to people when they ask me, If this Capitol crumbled to the ground, the one thing that would remain would be our commitment to our aid, I don’t even call it our aid, our cooperation with Israel. That’s fundamental to who we are."
Pompeo: "There is no more important task of the Secretary of State than standing for Israel and there is no more important ally to the United States than Israel. There is much more work to do."
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3mo ago
You don't need to do imperialism against a state, you can do it against nations. The Arab League wanted land occupied by Palestinians for themselves in 1948. I'm not going to lick their boots and say Arabs, Arab states or Islam are great and wonderful. They're not pure-hearted victims who never did anything wrong.
The Palestinians and Arabs thought that the 1948 agreement was unfair since Israel got awarded a majority of the land, a great deal of land that was owned by Palestinians. They then fought and lost a war with Israel. So be it - why are we bootlicking Israel to the tune of billions of dollars and taking on huge diplomatic and economic costs to help them out?
I'm sure you don't think that the details of the 1948 agreement have any relevance to our support for Israel. The reason Israel gets all this US support is because of intensive, effective lobbying and propaganda work, not because of some 70-year old piece of paper. Furthermore, I'm not talking about 1948, I'm talking about now or at least the 21st century.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3mo ago
We spent 20 years fighting Islamic terrorism and spent trillions of dollars fighting much of the Middle Eastern public and you think their public opinion doesn't matter?
The Abraham Accords caught... Bahrain and the UAE. This great success was followed up with Sudan, of all countries. Not Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia: any of the relevant powers. UAE is vaguely relevant I suppose.
On November 2, 2023, in view of the ongoing Israel–Hamas war, Bahrain said in a statement that the Israeli ambassador left Bahrain, that Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Israel, and suspended all economic relations with Israel, citing a "solid and historical stance that supports the Palestinian cause and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."[14][15] The statement was made by Bahrain's parliament and Israel said they had no knowledge of the decision.
So that leaves just the UAE. Not a great success.
The Palestinians dont get in the way of dealings between the Middle East and America and Europe. Its largely just some past time that has no affect on international relations.
Did you miss the Yemen/Red Sea war we're now fighting? Iran and the US are fighting a proxy war in Iraq as we speak, shelling eachother.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3mo ago
Maybe the US should've tried not reneging on the JCPOA if it wanted its adversaries to behave. Why would anyone trust an agreement with America when someone like Trump can get elected and tear the whole thing up? Obama gave the Iranians back their own money, Trump rendered years of patient diplomacy worthless and worked hard to start a major war, assassinating a top Iranian leader.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4mo ago
The status of women was advancing all throughout the 19th century in the US plus there are other factors involved.
The same thing goes for Japan. The fertility collapse predates liberalisation and workforce participation.
No it doesn't, go look at the graph. There's a brief fall due to the chaos of the Meiji Restoration then fertility goes back up. A fall with the Great Depression and WW2, as you (or at least I) would expect. Then it nose-dives after equality of the sexes is introduced. Same story in South Korea - static for decades under Japanese rule, then legal equality of the sexes, then straight down as the effects of that decision become clear. At the same time of course, South Korea is urbanizing. But it's not like urbanization started in 1950, that there was no urbanization from 1900-1950.
why did Swedens ferility rate recover in the late 80s/90s and again in the 10s?
At no point did I say that 100% of fertility was determined by female empowerment. There are other factors involved, the state of the economy, politics, cultural quirks and so on. What I am saying is that female empowerment lowers fertility. Speaking broadly, Sweden has empowered women and low, sub-replacement fertility, it's not a hole in my argument.
In 2022, the total fertility rate was close to the lowest observed, 1.52 children per woman.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4mo ago
Good points. I should've mentioned that I was quoting from a Murdoch newspaper above.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4mo ago
OK but why did the Khmer Rouge manage to get into power, if as you say, their policy program was omnicide directed at the Cambodian population (which is untrue given they were pro-peasant, grossly incompetent, weird and self-serving but still pro-peasant)? The sane, normal people were discredited and undermined by the US bombing campaign which killed a lot of people.
Johnny Cambodian the illiterate peasant doesn't know much about the fine details of Marxism, Maoism or Pol Potism. But he's against being bombed. That's the key ingredient, not Chinese or Vietnamese assistance. No amount of money can substitute for people prepared to fight - Afghanistan and our other counter-insurgency failures show that much.
North Korea's radicalization clearly predates the Korean War
The US razing every urban area in the country certainly worsened things. Proportionately North Korea got bombed much more intensely than Japan or Germany in WW2, massed incendiary attacks are roughly as devastating as nuclear strikes. The North Koreans might've started off weird but they got a lot weirder after the war - see the Korean axe murder incident. I'm no psychologist but I suspect having the whole country bombed to smithereens such that people were living in holes in the ground might induce some paranoia and xenophobia in the broad population. Anyway, South Korea didn't get hit as hard as North Korea.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4mo ago
However, I don't see how purely losing Crimea is supposed to bring Kremlin to Hague.
Losing this war means downfall for Putin and co, that's what I was trying to get at. Or there's a high enough risk that they'll act as though their lives are on the line.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4mo ago
Specifically, the distinction between copy-pasting and transposition.
There is a distinction and it's totally irrelevant to what I'm saying. Use reading comprehension.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6mo ago
Israel is not occupying Gaza in any sense that Egypt is not also doing so.
Do you understand the difference between blockading and embargoing?
RandomRanger
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6mo ago
Who else in the area is sympathetic to western ideology and willing to house western military bases?
Turkey? All of these countries would be way happier with the West if we weren't supporting Israel, their mortal enemy. That Israel is liberal-democratic is a problem, it makes MENA look upon liberal democracy with suspicion and seek out alternative powers to balance against the US-Israel duo.
Israel's semiconductor production is pretty puny, all things considered. Malaysia also produces a fair few microchips, so what. They're no Taiwan or South Korea.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
But I would say it's still unclear just how exchange rates are at all enabling or making space for borrowing or printing domestically. There just isn't a mechanism there.
If you print money, then each dollar is going to be less valuable. Increasing the supply of something reduces its price. Say the US printed $50 trillion tomorrow. The value of the USD would fall compared to foreign currencies because each dollar would be worth less (and because the rest of the world would think the Fed was off their heads). Inflation applies to buying things from other countries too. Or if you're currency is plunging, you don't have much room to lower interest rates.
the countries on the receiving end like the US have foreign countries intentionally 'saving' in our currency like this, basically benefit for free
Only so long as the USD is perceived to be valuable. What happens when they stop buying US bonds because they know that the only thing backing US bonds is more US bonds to be printed in future years? Interest rates on US bonds will have to rise, borrowing will be more constrained. Massive deficit spending sucks capital out of the rest of the economy, it's not a good thing.
Look at how much govt revenue the US is spending just on paying interest. It's verging towards the territory of the dodgy countries like Angola, rather than the safe countries like Australia or Norway: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-payments-percent-of-revenue-wb-data.html
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
Where is it written that suffering requires grotesque mishappen faces and inhuman bodies? What about clear human faces or expressions?
It's perfectly clear what's going on, you can actually interpret it in justifiable ways. Korean wearing white for purity, the composition of how they're all staring at her with malign intent, the guy with the cigarette casually contemptuous and approving of his colleague's hard work. Tongs being heated up for more torture.
Or take half of Caravaggio's work, lots of suffering there! But it's also clear, you've got light and darkness, you've got colour, you've got proper human faces and emotions. His work is not a giant mess of disconnected, ill-shaped images.
Or this - clear emotion, realistic imagery.
https://media.timeout.com/images/105652224/750/422/image.jpg
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
current account surplus allows higher government deficits
It strengthens the value of the currency, so states can print more money to finance their deficits. If your foreign assets are growing, then you have more room to borrow and print, compared to if your foreign assets are shrinking.
From wikipedia:
Nations with chronic current account deficits often come under increased investor scrutiny during periods of heightened uncertainty. The currencies of such nations often come under speculative attack during such times. This creates a vicious circle where precious foreign exchange reserves are depleted to support the domestic currency, and this forex reserve depletion – combined with a deteriorating trade balance – puts further pressure on the currency. Embattled nations are often forced to take stringent measures to support the currency, such as raising interest rates and curbing currency outflows.
Raising interest rates is obviously a threat to government deficits!
The US is not in much danger currently since it has a lot of foreign assets and a valuable currency, plus people are buying US bonds which used to have a fairly low interest rate, so outflows were/are fairly low. Nevertheless current account deficits are a threat to the long-term stability of the $US. Someone has to buy all those dollars and it would be helpful if there were more exports for them to buy with those dollars. Furthermore, fiscal prudence never goes out of fashion, that should be a key lesson of 2008.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
Very interesting commentary. I personally think it's 'work smart' stuff but the meaning of what you say does extend beyond anything a two-word platitude can cover.
Reminds me a little of my experience in crypto, few decisions, lots of stress, lots of waiting on events. Easy things that are difficult to do. Of course, much less money at stake.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
as when a court makes a ruling, it is basically saying "The law as written is properly interpreted like this. If you don't like it, write a better law
My point is that they can only do this if there's a law or decision to interpret and they feel confident they won't just get hammered. Like you say, there's no law that says affirmative action is illegal, no clear notion of what the punishment should be, no guidance as to what should happen. They can reinterpret but it's hard to reinterpret standard and continuing practice into illegal, fineworthy, jailworthy crimes.
In Australia we had a case that would've cost the WA govt billions so they legislated to prevent the payout. Courts generally don't want to make judgements that will then get rendered irrelevant by the legislators.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7mo ago
Did you know that there is a rally point function and 'all cities build this in queue' function? Alt-click cities bar to select all cities, click what you want them to build and right click a tile for them to rally there. Once I discovered this late-game with 20-30 cities became much more enjoyable.
I like early game because I aim to start a war by turn 75 and conquer a civilization. Or sometimes I'm trying to grab wonders and eco up really quickly.
City maintenance can be quite oppressive early on, when I've just conquered another civ. But I suppose it has to be to stop me snowballing incredibly quickly, taking another couple of civs. If things have investment costs to balance the rewards, that's alright. It's generally good to have more cities in 4, albeit they take time before they pay off their investment. But in 5 it's suboptimal to have more than 4 cities, as I understand it, due to Tradition's bonuses. Tall play dominates.
I think Sulla is unhappy about how V isn't so much about investment costs as fixed or proportionate costs. Cities make each tech or social policy more expensive in perpetuity, there are going to be many cities that can never pay off their science/culture debt. In addition to mere opportunity cost you get endless costs.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8mo ago
HOW DO YOU KNOW THIS?
Did the Soviet Union die when Lenin died? Stalin? No. Did the PRC collapse when Mao died? North Korea? Party-states usually survive the death of their leader.
The most relevant example for your case would be Franco's Spain, which was in a completely different international situation to a triumphant Nazi Germany. There are people who just assume that it would disintegrate, this meme has made its way into popular culture based on works of fiction like TNO or Man in the High Castle. In actual fact, much of Western Europe was happy enough to collaborate - more French bore arms for the Axis than against it (and much resistance was really just refusal to get deported to Germany to work in arms industry there). Only the Poles, Yugoslavs and Russians fought hard as partisans, many of the other ethnicities of the Soviet Union were ambivalent or somewhat pro-Axis.
Anyway, the Mongol empire lasted about 40 years after Genghis's death, before splitting into four (after considerable further expansion). The Ilkhanate was first to fall and still lasted into the 1330s and 1340s for about an 80 year lifespan.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8mo ago
Blackrock, Ark and others is enough to make bitcoin price go up
In 21, Elon's tweets were a primary driver of price action. I lost a fair bit of money based on his announcements.
I would advise caution in shorting bitcoin just before the halving too.
https://www.thepackablelife.com/travel/journal/living-in-china
Seems OK for English teachers. I hear that white men are considered attractive there too, though that's diminishing.
I don't understand, why do people think China is this super-poor country? There are parts of China that are poor but the major cities you're most likely to be in are quite rich, as shown in my videos. You don't even get accosted by crazy homeless people either. One of my female friends went to China and was raving about how safe she felt everywhere, even at night. If you sold state secrets to them, they'd presumably be positively inclined towards you and unlikely to turn the police state against you.
I don't want to move to China because it's not my homeland and because I don't want to learn Mandarin. But it's not like you're moving to Moscow in the 1960s, where you'll be condemned to a leaky apartment and cars that don't work. There's loads of gadgets and cool things in China.
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