This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum might be interested in. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the Ukraine War, the Canada-India beef, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Haiti

The Dominican Republic has closed its border with Haiti (tbh surprised this took so long) over the construction of a Haitian canal that:

Officials in the Dominican Republic say the project will divert water from the Massacre River, which runs in both countries, and violate the 1929 Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Arbitration.

Presumably the spillover of lawlessness was also a concern.

The details of a Kenyan led multinational intervention force for Haiti are finally being hammered out. Kenya will pledge 1000 troops; America will pledge $100 million to the operation, and has also now signed a defense agreement with Kenya to help them combat the Jihadi group Al Shabaab. This has taken a remarkably long time (it still hasn’t been finally approved by the UN) given that President Moïse was assassinated two years ago and the country has been in semi-anarchy since. It is definitely less than ideal to use a country whose soldiers don’t speak French and is currently dealing with charges of police brutality in the ICC, but it’s something I guess.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt held the second round of talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would double Ethiopia’s electricity generation but Sudan and Egypt are both worried would imperil their water supply. Unfortunately the talks seemingly brought the countries no closer to an agreement. According to Ethiopian President Abiy, the dam is now fully ready to be brought into operation - hopefully they work something out soon! There is supposed to be one more round of talks, which so far all the parties are still willing to attend.

Fighting seems to have flared up again in the Amhara region, where the ethnic militia Fano has been in rebellion over Abiy’s attempt to integrate it into the national armed forces.

Poland

Poland will be holding elections on the 15th, along with a general referendum on migration on the same day. Don’t know much about it and would be interested to hear from others:

While in 2019 PiS won 43.6% of the vote, the party is now several percentage points below that level of success at 38% as of 9 September, according to the latest POLITICO poll. Trailing behind Pis is Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition party - Koalicja Obywatelska - with 30% of the vote and the far-right Confederation Freedom and Independence - Konfederacja Wolsność i Niepodległość - with 11% of the vote. The current polls suggest that PiS, which has been ruling Poland since 2015, might look for a coalition partner to form the next government as it fails to reach an overall majority, though it’s still unclear where it will find one.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan has fully reasserted control over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has warned against harming Armenians, but the 2000 Russian peacekeepers who were put in place to end the 2020 conflict do not seem to have the capacity or interest in helping them (The Azeri President Aliyev apologized to Putin for killing some of them and it’s apparently chill). This is likely the culmination of the past three years - Russia didn’t do much to help Armenia in the 2020 conflict either, and since then Armenia withdrew from CSTO and have sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Recently the Armenian President said publicly that they cannot rely on Russia to defend them anymore and had begun conducting joint military drills with the US.

Iran has warned against “border changes,” which is interesting. Iran doesn’t want to derail the overland routes they've invested in to be built across Armenia, and has also historically been a weapons supplier for the country (in part because Azerbaijan receives weapons from Israel). But they have something of a delicate game to play when challenging Azerbaijan, due to their own ~16% Azeri minority on the border. Previous President Rouhani made it a major initiative to improve relations with Iranian Azeris (some of whom are very integrated and others of whom occasionally protest) by allowing Azeri to be taught in schools, recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan territory, and staying out of the 2020 conflict. Still, however, Azerbaijan regularly accuses Iran of favoring Armenia and tensions have never really disappeared.

Meanwhile, a pretty big chunk of the population in Nagorno Karabakh seems to be reading the room and heading for Armenia now that the Lachlin corridor is open.

Some 28,000 people — about 23% of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh — have fled to Armenia since Azerbaijan’s swift military operation to reclaim the region after three decades of separatist rule. The mass exodus caused huge traffic jams. The 100-kilometer (60-mile) drive took as long as 20 hours.

Edit: Reports are saying it's up to almost 75% of the population that have now fled.

Kosovo

Speaking of breakaway republics and peacekeeping operations, a group of Serbians opened fire on Albanian policemen, who then returned the favor. The shootout left at least four dead and has further inflamed an increasingly tense situation:

Kurti accused the Serbian government on Sunday of logistically supporting “the terrorist, criminal, professional unit” that fired on Kosovo Police officers. Vucic denied the allegations, saying the gunmen were local Kosovo Serbs “who no longer want to withstand Kurti’s terror.”

President Vučić has demanded the UN deploy a peacekeeping force to take over the nation’s security. There is already a pretty large UN contingent in Kosovo, so I guess mainly he’s asking for a change in their scope of operations. The two countries are supposedly in the process of normalizing relations but it sure doesn’t look too likely at the moment.

Bolivia

Do you remember the coup in Bolivia? Long time socialist President Evo Morales was forced out of office after big protests against voting irregularities. A wacky lady named Jeanine Áñez took power in the wake and started promptly committing massacres. Áñez held off elections as long as possible until they ultimately resulted in Morales’ Movement for Socialism party re-winning the Presidency under his protege Luis Arce.

A lot of people at the time claimed it was a coup; further analysis of the voting records seems to indicate maybe they weren’t actually irregular, and there were suspicions that the west wasn’t wild about Bolivia closely guarding its nationalized lithium ion deposits - suspicions notable lithium-ion fan Elon Musk didn’t help by responding, for some reason, “We will coup whoever we want. Deal with it!” Ironically, Acre has just announced that he will open up Bolivia for lithium extraction from foreign companies.

Either way, things may be coming full circle with Morales returning to the palace after all - he just announced that he will be running in the 2025 election. Acre hasn’t actually formally announced that he himself will be running again, but it’s unlikely that he’ll step aside just because Morales wants him to - the two have experienced a rift over the past few years, with Morales accusing Acre of hounding him with bonus corruption charges. Acre’s justice department will certainly be challenging Morales’ candidacy, but probably deservedly so - he’s already exceeded the constitutional limits on the number of terms you can serve.

Egypt

And speaking of leaders exceeding term limits, Egypt has announced new elections this December. Current President Abel Fattah Al-Sisi will be running again following amending the constitution to abolish term limits and increase terms to six years up from four. He won his last two elections with nearly 100% of the vote and jailed the last guy who was a serious challenge to him, so most likely he will win this one as well and govern till at least 2030.

The economy overall has been trending downwards. To make up for a lack of financing Egypt has been trying to coax a deal out of the IMF, who wants them to devalue their currency. They’ve now devalued three times in the past year but really the IMF wants them to switch to a floating rate regime that would accurately reflect their currency’s value.

Adding to economic bad news, to many Egyptians’ surprise they have now become embroiled in America’s latest political scandal around Senator Robert Menendez taking Egyptian bribes. This has led to increasing calls to withhold more aid from Egypt, which couldn’t really come at a worse time.

Uganda

Uganda has been resuming its own role of staying real active in its neighbors’ affairs. Recently they conducted a series of airstrikes against the Islamic State in the DRC (killing approximately “a lot” of fighters). This is part of a multiple decades old conflict - the Allied Democratic Forces is a 90s era Islamist rebel group from Uganda that was eventually driven out into North Kivu and has been attacking Uganda from a distance ever since, allegedly with the support of previous president Joseph Kabila. Recently the AFD joined the broader ISIS umbrella of jihadis and the DRC and Uganda agreed in 2021 to jointly crack down upon them. Since the conflict resumed Uganda has claimed to have killed over 600 jihadis already and has asserted the movement is on its last legs.

President Mosevini also recently offered to help mediate unification talks with Somalia and Somaliland; Somaliland promptly told them to kick rocks.

Spain

The vote to see whether conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo could become Prime Minister was held Wednesday, and he failed to cross the threshold of 176 votes. This means socialist PM Pedro Sanchez most likely now gets his chance to form a government, but with the Catalan independence party making strict demands of amnesty Sanchez doesn’t honestly seem much closer to winning either. The most likely result right now seems like another election getting held.

Transnational Thursdays 18

5 comments - 857 thread views 7mo ago by Soriek (text post)

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum might be interested in. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the UN General Assembly, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Nagorno Karabakh

On Tuesday Azerbaijan launched a major offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh. They describe the operation as “anti-terrorist” and have accused the Armenian army of shelling them, which Armenia denies.

At least five people were killed, including a child, and 80 people were injured, amid artillery, missile and drone strikes by the Azerbaijan military, according to Armenian state news…

Tensions have been simmering around the region for months, after Azerbaijani troops blockaded the Lachin corridor in December, cutting off the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and preventing the import of food to its roughly 120,000 inhabitants.

Russian peacekeepers, who deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh under the terms of the 2020 ceasefire, have been tasked with preventing a fresh conflict breaking out. But Moscow has been accused of being unable or unwilling to intervene to protect Armenia, its long-term ally, in the face of continuing aggression from Azerbaijan.

The conflict has now reached a ceasefire with Azerbaijan claiming complete military control of the territory.

(For background: a long time ago Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh) was an autonomous oblast under the Soviet Union. The area was mixed ethnically between Armenians and Azeris and when the USSR fell both Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over the future of Artsakh (with Armenia supporting its independence). Armenia won and pretty significant ethnic cleansing drove much of the local Azeri population out. The area remained officially Azeri but de facto independent until 2020 when Azerbaijan conquered much of it back. The area is now pretty solidly ethnically Armenian (post all the ethnic cleansing) and it was very much a hostile occupation so it was probably inevitable that conflict would bubble up again in one way or another.)

Canada

This was written right after things happened, see @self_made_human’s in depth comment in the main thread for more discussion.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has accused the Indian government of assassinating a Sikh community leader on Canadian soil. The man in question, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, was a Canadian citizen residing in British Columbia, and a prominent advocate for “the creation of Khalistan, an independent Sikh nation carved out of areas including the Indian state of Punjab." These views have led the Indian government to label him as a “wanted terrorist”. India had a fraught relationship between Sikh dissidents and the government in the past, and the present day Indian government has criticized the behavior of the Canadian Sikh community, but this would be an unprecedented escalation. It’s entirely unclear what the evidence is though beyond confidential Canadian intelligence reports.

Canada has expelled an Indian diplomat “whom [Foreign Minister Joly] described as the head of India’s intelligence agency in Canada.” India has responded by expelling a Canadian diplomat in turn. India has also issued a travel advisory warning its citizens in Canada to “exercise caution” - pretty cheeky if you ask me.

Their ongoing trade deal negotiations now seem permanently dead as well; they were paused earlier, apparently because of suspicions surrounding the assassination. If the trade deal had gone through “Industry estimates show the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India could boost two-way trade by as much as $6.5 billion, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035.”

As NYTimes notes, Indians are not only sizable minority population in India at around 4%, but the New Democratic Party, which currently props up Trudeau’s coalition, is led by a Jagmeet Singh, a Sikh himself. The current coalition has the NDP offering to support the liberals through 2025 as long as they work on NDP priorities. Significantly this forced Liberals to fund the NDP’s primary plank of federal dental care, despite the fact that it cost over double what it was projected. Needless to say, their support is important and will factor into Canada’s response in this situation.

Taiwan

Taiwan will be holding elections in January and it’s looking to be a fraught one in the context of increased Chinese belicosity. The incumbent Democratic Progressive Party will be facing stiffer challenges to their rule as party leader President Tsai Ing-wen is no longer eligible to run due to term limits. Instead they’ll be running Vice President Lai Ching-te, a historically pro-independence politician (which may make some voters nervous about more escalation with China).

The primary opposition candidate, Hou Yi-Hi running for the Kuomintang party (the traditional nationalist party of Chiang Kai-Shek, ironically less anti-China than the DPP) , published an op-ed in Foreign Affairs arguing for his candidacy. The tl;dr is greater dialogue with China while also increasing the military and deepening relationships with allies.

Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Foxconn, has also announced his second Presidential bid. In 2020 he ran (“declaring he was instructed by the sea goddess Mazu in a dream to contest the election”) in the KMT primary and lost, now he will be running as an independent, which may split KMT’s voters. Currently he is probably the most pro-Chinese candidate.

The Taiwanese People’s Party (actually a pretty centrist party) will also run their leader Ko Wen-je but they get like no votes.

CNN notes that if DPP were to win a third term this would be “unprecedented” in the history of Taiwanese democracy, but that only started in like 1987, so not actually that hard to beat previous records.

Sudan

The Sudanese conflict continues to rage on with over 4 million displaced and 200,000 killed, but media coverage has mostly lost interest. Last month military officials spoke about a negotiated agreement to end the war, but as far as I can tell it hasn’t manifested (and there have been several ceasefires already established and violated). The army has also paid recent visits to Qatar and Eritrea to discuss the conflict.

The millions who remain in Khartoum and cities in the Darfur and Kordofan regions have faced rampant looting and long power, communications and water cuts.

Reports of sexual assaults have increased by 50 percent, said UN population fund official Laila Baker

Large swaths of the country have been suffering from an electricity blackout since Sunday, which has also taken mobile networks offline, according to a statement from the national electricity authority

Seasonal rains, which also increase the risk of waterborne diseases, have destroyed or damaged the homes of up to 13,500 people, the UN estimated.

Foreign Affairs writes a very good piece on the conflict updating (to the best of our ability to know what’s happening) on the present status quo in Darfur:

Darfur is without cellphone or Internet access, making it a black hole for information. But it appears that the RSF has also taken over Zalingei, the capital of central Darfur and the largest city of the Fur ethnic group. The militia commander has moved into the governor’s office. One by one, Darfur’s towns are falling to the RSF. The cattle-herding Arab tribes of eastern Darfur, which had tried to remain neutral in the earlier war, now find themselves with no option but to ally with the RSF. Rural aristocrats, whose writ once determined tribal policy, are now subject to the diktats of young militia commanders. Last month, nine senior chiefs declared support for the RSF.

So far, the most powerful of the former rebels—including Minni Minawi of the Sudan Liberation Movement—have stayed out of the fight. They fear the RSF, but they do not trust the intentions or the capacity of the army and have accused Burhan’s government of neglecting Darfur’s urgent humanitarian needs. Others have joined forces with the beleaguered army to defend key cities. How long the former rebels can stay neutral is uncertain, especially as the targeted communities need protection. Darfuri communities’ self-defense units urgently need international support to create safe zones in cities and displaced people’s camp.

The RSF has also swept across neighboring Northern Kordofan. Its conquest of the main city of al-Obeid was only thwarted by mass demonstrations by its residents. RSF paramilitaries are moving eastward to reinforce their fight for Khartoum, as trucks laden with the capital’s looted goods rumble in the opposite direction.

They also offer a retrospective tracking the present day conflict in Sudan through its roots in the 2003 Darfur genocide, and even farther back through the spillover effects of the Chadian civil war of the 60s and Libyan invasions of Chad in the 70s and 80.

Japan

During Kishida’s time in the US for the UN General Assembly he reportedly held a summit with Iran and intentionally avoided one with Ukraine. In more major diplomatic meetings, on September 26, Japan will meet with China and Korea to hold the first trilateral summit ever. Japan and Korea have only recently restored their diplomatic and trade ties, so they will likely be approaching the summit from a mostly united front on the one thing they really agree on: countering China.

A little over a year ago Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a guy with a homemade pipe gun and some schizophrenic accusations that Abe was in bed with the Korean "Moonies" cult. It turns out his accusations weren’t so schizophrenic after all and not only was Abe connected with the Moonies, like his father and his father’s father before him, half of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party had some ties with them. This turned into a gigantic scandal; the Atlantic offers a great retrospective with some eye popping details about the extent of the Moonies’ influence within Japanese democracy.

Guatemala

Since underdog Bernardo Arévalo’s upset victory in the election, the establishment has pursued a series of pretty much everything they can do to overturn the results of the election. Most recently the Attorney General had federal agents raid the electoral tribunal office and seize all the ballot boxes. Arévalo won with a pretty commanding 60% and pretty much everyone has condemned the government’s moves to oppose it, from the Organization of American States to the European Parliament to the United States.

Thousands of protestors have been marching in Guatemala City, particularly from the indigenous community, in support of Arévalo and calling for judicial officials to resign.

Colombia

I’ve covered several weeks of people reporting on Gustavo Petro’s failures on cartel violence, the drug trade, and getting his bills passed, so here’s a more positive take from Jacobin (obvious bias is obvious). His failures to pass his primary legislative goals through they chalk up to opposition stonewalling (which is 100% true). Even so, they argue, he’s achieved quite a bit and despite his overall popularity falling, this is reflected in some 90% of his coalition’s voters still supporting him.

On the economy, most conservative analysts predicting he would steer them into economic chaos and hyperinflation (in fairness, with more of a legislative mandate he certainly would have passed higher levels of spending). Instead, Petro inherited high unemployment and inflation rates and has overseen them come steadily down even as he continuously raised minimum wages, expanded housing subsidies for low income buyers, and passed land redistribution. This has decreased poverty and raised living standards, especially for the poorest Colombians. On the environment, he’s also passed ambition funding for the preservation of the Amazon where previously there was nothing allocated.

Transnational Thursdays 17

13 comments - 859 thread views 7mo ago by Soriek (text post) Edited 7mo ago

Niger

Don’t count the French out yet! President Macron has continued to call for the reinstatement of President Bazoum and has claims he will “back” (militarily?) ECOWAS if they intervene directly. Bloomberg has some choice words:

France’s stand is somewhat hypocritical.

For decades, Paris has been happy to sit back when coups were staged that suited its interests. Just two years ago, it effectively backed a bloodless putsch in Chad, one of the European nation’s most important military allies. It also continues to partner with strongmen across central Africa, including Paul Biya in Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, who’ve held power for decades.

Anti-French sentiment . . . contributed to a spate of coups across western and central Africa over the past three years, with eight of the nine power grabs occurring in territories Paris once controlled.

If anything, the hostile relations between France and Niger’s junta could play into the soldiers’ hands, helping increase support and entrench their rule.

Yesterday the military government of Niger actually arrested a French elected official, the Counselor for French Citizens Abroad (which doesn’t sound like an elected position). Apparently Counselor Jullien hadn’t left the country despite being ordered to by the junta, because he / the government of France doesn’t recognize their authority. Seems inadvisable.

Chile

Chile commemorated the 50th anniversary of the coup of Salvador Allende and the start of the military dictatorship last week in a spirit of surprising divisiveness. The brutal military dictator who replaced him, Augusto Pinochet, still retains a surprising amount of supporters, mostly for his role in restoring the Chilean economy (which has less to do with him being all that great and more to do with Allende being exceptionally comparatively bad). The issue has become so politicized that everyone just picks a side at this point, the Chilean right has refused to attend any commemorative events for the coup or to sign a joint commitment to democracy, even though many of them very likely disapprove of dictatorship as well.

Recent releases of declassified information have shed some more light on America’s role in the coup. There wasn’t that much more to really add, everyone knew America had messed around in Chilean elections, communicated with the military and approved of a coup even if they didn’t pull the trigger, and that they held close relations with the military dictatorship of Pinochet in the following years. AOC, a long time for advocate for declassifying the Chilean files, has called upon the Biden Administration to apologize for America’s role in the coup (Obama famously refused to do so during his own term).

Colombia

I previously reported on Insight Crime’s assessment of President Boric’s Total Peace initiative on violent crime, which found that clashes between the government and the cartels had decreased, but intra-cartel conflict was worse than ever. They have now released a similarly damning follow-up report on trends in the drug industry under Petro, following the announcement on the new National Drug Policy:

The policy is based on two main principles, "oxygen" and "asphyxiation." The first aims to relieve the pressure on those who have borne the brunt of the so-called "war on drugs" -- small coca growers and consumers -- by encouraging them to voluntarily substitute their coca crops with legal alternatives and by promoting a public health approach to the consumption of psychoactive substances.

The second principle directs security forces to key flashpoints of the drug trade by boosting their ability to interdict drug shipments and destroy drug processing infrastructure. Additionally, the “asphyxiation” strategy aims to capture key members of drug trafficking gangs and increase investigations into related money laundering and corruption.

However, coca production has currently reached an all time high under the Petro Administration approach thus far, of which the National Drug Policy is mostly just an expansion. Combined with the Administration’s seeming inability or unwillingness to combat the cartels, who are only expanding their territory as well, it is difficult to see why this policy would arrest recent trends in coca production. Petro came to power on an upswell of revolutionary energy as the first ever left wing President of Colombia, but buffeted by scandals in his administration, failure to push initiatives through opposition stonewalling, and general record on crime and the drug trade, his popularity has plummeted to only 33%.

North Korea

Russia and North Korea recently held a summit where reportedly talks of North Korea endorsing Russia in the Ukrainian war would be exchanged for weapons transfers, likely ballistic missile technology or reconnaissance satellites. US officials have warned against proceeding with this.

Cambodia

Cambodia’s 38 year lasting dictator (#3 in the world!) Hun Sen, has officially stepped aside and his son Hun Manet has taken power. Manet recently laid out his vision to lift Cambodia up to high-income country status by 2050.

The vision involves developing human capital, the digital economy and inclusivity and sustainability, he said, referring to it as the "pentagon strategy".

In a country once riven by decades of war, Cambodia has now evolved to a lower-middle income nation with economic growth rates of 7%, he said.

Manet is now holding his first bilateral visit, to where else but China, where the two nations will be celebrating 65 years of (tumultuous) ties:

In August, Hun Manet met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Phnom Penh, where he pledged to promote agriculture, manufacturing, economic and trade investment and cooperation in practical areas such as tourism and education.

He also reaffirmed his government’s “unchanged position” on the one-China policy and non-interference in China’s internal affairs regarding Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong…

China is Cambodia’s biggest trading partner, with US$11.6 billion in trade between the two countries last year, according to Cambodia’s customs department.

It is also Cambodia’s largest lender, supplying loans to finance airports, roads and other infrastructure projects. Beijing owns 37 per cent of Phnom Penh’s US$10 billion in foreign loans, according to the latest figure by Cambodia’s Public Debt Statistical Bulletin.

China has also been helping Cambodia upgrade its Ream Naval Base, raising concerns in Washington that it could be used an overseas outpost by the Chinese military.

Both countries denied the claim, with Beijing saying the project was aimed at improving the Cambodian navy’s capability and was in line with the laws of both countries.

Southeast Asia

I’ve reported that the Biden Administration has been furthering/cementing diplomatic relations or security collaboration across Asia, including Japan, Korea, India, the Phillipines, Vietnam, and potentially Thailand.

Biden himself chose not to attend the ASEAN summit this year and sent VP Harris instead, continuing a pattern of handling Asian relations mostly on a bilateral basis (he met with the Thai government during the same timeslot; it’s also worth noting that next year ASEAN will be chaired by Laos, a close China ally). In other ASEAN news, Al Jazeera reports on the disharmony of the organization reaching a recent peak.

Thailand’s outgoing military-led government broke ranks with the bloc, which collectively had decided to suspend Myanmar’s generals from top meetings, and embraced the neighbouring country’s regime with support from China.

Then, last month, Myanmar’s coup leaders expelled East Timor’s top diplomat in Yangon after the Timorese joined a long list of countries in meeting with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), set up by removed and elected lawmakers mostly associated with now jailed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi...

The bloc also faces continuing challenges over the disputed South China Sea where there has been scant progress on a much-talked-about code of conduct.

The Philippines last month accused China of using water cannons to attack resupply vessels off Second Thomas Shoal. China’s release of a new map depicting its expansive claims has also caused upset.

“ASEAN’s silence on key issues, particularly the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, calls the bloc’s relevance into question,” said ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights co-chair, Charles Santiago, in a September 3 statement.

ASEAN is an economic block, not really a diplomatic / military coordinating framework, and it can’t pass anything without the unanimous consent of all its members, so it really may just not be suited for handling regional issues of this sort.

Transnational Thursdays 16

22 comments - 1048 thread views 7mo ago by Soriek (text post)

Argentina

Turbo-libertarian Javier Milei has gotten into some trouble for his running mate Victoria Villarruel, who has been a long time apologist for Argentina’s Dirty War and as a lawyer defended officers accused of crimes against humanity. She claims the mass disappearances were understandable and necessary to defeat leftist terrorists (who had mostly been extinguished by the time Videla took power in 76 near the very beginning of this era of state terrorism). This has understandably drawn the ire of Argentina’s human rights organizations and isn’t just an issue of the past - if Milei wins she will be in charge of the police and armed forces.

Separately the Economist wrote a rather scathing article arguing that the IMF had been radically lowering its lending standards to put up with Argentina’s endless monetary mismanagement. At the rate they’re heading, no matter who wins the election it may be too late to save the currency crisis.

The United Kingdom

Politico reports on leadership difficulties in Britain. The Tories have been receiving a drubbing in the polls, recently lost two by elections, and apparently concluded a ministerial reshuffle without generating much excitement. All this is a challenge for PM Sunak and doesn’t reflect well on next year’s election:

Sunak’s supporters are keen to highlight that he’s chalked up some big wins since taking office less than a year ago. He produced a solution to the Northern Ireland trade deadlock, started to carve out a new image for Britain on the international stage, presided over slowing inflation, and passed a flagship bill aimed at cutting undocumented migration. But these limited successes just may not cut it for voters. Two-thirds of people think Sunak has achieved “only a slight amount” or nothing at all in his premiership so far, according to polling for POLITICO by PR firm Redfield and Wilton.

Speaking of leadership woes, following Nicola Sturgeon’s exit and SNP’s ongoing scandals, much of the oomph seems to have been taken out of the independence movement:

A recent Survation poll suggested the SNP could lose almost half the 48 seats it won at the 2019 Westminster election, with Labour picking up 24 — a dramatic improvement on opposition leader Keir Starmer’s current total of one, and a major boost to his hopes of entering Downing Street at next year’s general election.

I’m not really a Britain watcher and I know we have a fair amount of users who are so input would definitely be appreciated.

Spain

The left and right remain in deadlock in Spain’s never ending post election hangover. The conservatives were the frontrunner in votes and their leader Feijoo is currently attempting unsuccessfully to form a party. Feijoo actually proposed to the Socialist party that they collaborate on legislation if they allow him to come to power, which the socialists of course rejected.

Currently they still hold the top chance at winning a third party to their coalition because the third parties are mostly regional outright or quasi independence movements that are incompatible with a more nationalist coalition. However, the Catalan party Junts has now formally outlined their demands to support the left. They will require full amnesty for their leader Carles Puigdemon, who is in exile following the illegal Catalan independence referendum. Until now this has been a nonstarter for leftist PM Pedro Sanchez and Junts have already said they won’t accept an exchange of amnesty for police officers accused of brutality in the wake of the referendum, which has been thus far the only idea proposed to sweeten the hard-to-swallow demand.

Thailand

To summarize the mess so far, two anti-military, anti-monarchy parties were big winners in the last election. One of them was more genuinely radical / progressive, the other was kind of the family party of the last two leaders that the military coup’d. For understandable reasons the latter party, Pheu Thai, were at first seen as a more serious enemy, and their incredibly popular shadow leader Thaksin Shinawatra has been exiled since the his 2014 coup.

However, the more radical (and popular) Move Forward party came to be seen as a more serious threat to the military-monarchy rule so the powers that be blocked them, and ended up coalitioning with Pheu Thai and let them pick a palatable, non-military PM in exchange for Thaksin being allowed to return. The King has now formally pardoned almost all of Thaskin’s sentence.

There are two ways to look at the conclusion to this saga. One is that populist forces have become so powerful that the military was forced on its back legs to sacrifice some power and even ally with their old enemy. The other is that the military has so skillfully entrenched their power that they have co-opted their historical enemy as an ally and handily crushed their only real threat. I tend to lean towards the latter explanation but you can differ.

Separately, I have previously used Thailand as an example arguing against people who think American foreign policy is guided by an urge to push progressivism everywhere. The Thai military basically just steamrolled a progressive democratic movement and we didn’t say anything, because what we really care about is whether they’ll lean towards us or China. At the time I argued it was very unlikely that Thailand made their move without letting the US know first, and that we should expect to see our countries grow closer, not farther apart following this arc. Early signs of this shift, the Thai PM has said he will also skip ASEAN and use that time to hold security talks with the United States.

I’ve been covering this election saga for a while and now that it’s basically concluded I probably won’t update on Thailand too often, unless they do something crazy (which they well might!) so thanks for following this with me.

Gabon

After Gabon’s coup against the re-elected Ali Bongo, General Brice Oligui Nguema has risen to power as the new “interim” president. While on the surface this is the end of the 56 years of rule by the Bongo family, Nguema is actually cousins with President Bongo, leading the opposition leader to accuse the whole thing of being a sham to keep the family in power. Either way, the General has his work cut out for him:

The freeze on hiring since 2018 and the suspension of a salary before the civil servants are given a posting are just two issues that have made the job more precarious, unionist Sima Bertin says.

"Three major issues come immediately come to mind. First, the administrative situations of teachers must be regularized. The second is the regularization of their financial situation, including the payment of arrears. Last but not least, the pension should be indexed to the teachers' remuneration systems',' the Syndicat de l’éducation nationale member listed.

Nguema has promised to return the country to civilian control with free and fair elections but, uh, no timeline yet. Rwanda and Cameroon have responded to the coup by reshuffling their own defense forces and seem to be wary of more instability spreading.

Slovakia

Slovakia will have a parliamentary election on September 30th. This is earlier than normal because the last election was only in 2020, which saw the rise of the anti-corruption populist Igor Matovič, who proceeded to mismanage things so badly that he is apparently now the most distrusted politician in Slovakia with various polls showing 88% to 91% of the population rating him as distrustful. He was succeeded by Eduard Heger who struggled to maintain momentum through stillwater budget negotiations and ultimately lost a vote of no confidence in December, leading to a vote in January to reform the constitution to allow for early elections.

Right now the previous leader of the left wing coalition, SD, is in first place, trailed by a progressive party likely willing to coalition with them, and trailed comfortably by everyone else.

China

China’s second largest real estate giant after Evergrande, Country Garden, may default on their debts as well, turning a bad real estate -driven recession even worse.

This came as the crisis-hit company reported a record $6.7bn (£5.2bn) loss for the first six months of the year…

Country Garden also announced it had missed interest payments on bonds that were due this month. However, it added it was still within a 30-day grace period to make the payments.

It is also reportedly seeking to extend a deadline for the repayment of another bond…

Problems in China's property market - which includes everything from building homes to industries making the goods that go in them - is having a major impact as it accounts for around a third of the economy.

China's real estate industry was rocked when new rules to control the amount of money big real estate firms could borrow were introduced in 2020.

Evergrande, which was once China's top-selling developer, racked up debts of more than $300bn as it expanded aggressively to become one of the country's biggest companies.

Its financial problems have rippled through the country's property industry, with a series of other developers defaulting on their debts and leaving unfinished building projects across the country.

BBC adds more detail in a small retrospective:

The country's astonishing growth in the past 30 years was propelled by building: everything from roads, bridges and train lines to factories, airports and houses. It is the responsibility of local governments to carry this out.

However, some economists argue this approach is starting to run out of road, figuratively and literally.

One of the more bizarre examples of China's addiction to building can be found in Yunnan province, near the border with Myanmar. This year, officials there bafflingly confirmed they would go ahead with plans to build a new multi-million dollar Covid-19 quarantine facility.

Heavily indebted local governments are under so much pressure that this year some were reportedly found to be selling land to themselves to fund building programmes.

On the other hand, a series of articles seems to be praising Hauwei’s advances in the just released chip, in spite of sanctions:

Jefferies analysts said TechInsights' findings could trigger a probe from the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, create more debate in the U.S. about the effectiveness of sanctions and prompt the Congress to include even harsher tech sanctions in a competition bill it is preparing against China.

Transnational Thursdays 15

3 comments - 642 thread views 7mo ago by Soriek (text post)

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from around the world. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the BRICS expansion or the Prigozhin assassination, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Gabon

Last week I reported that Gabon’s election would almost certainly result in a victory for Ali Bongo, current heir of the Bongo family that has dominated Gabon since 1967. He did win, but apparently the military had other ideas, because they have staged yet another African coup and declared themselves in power. This is a little different than the coups that have happened in democracies, because Gabon was basically a dictatorship with a thin veneer of fake elections, but represents another startling addition to the trend of coups.

Brazil

Lula has been somewhat stymied so far in his agenda by his Worker’s Party’s minority in the legislature:

Despite progress on certain bills – including the passage of looser limits on public expenditure, and approval in the lower house of long-awaited tax reform – Lula has suffered a series of parliamentary defeats. Lawmakers thwarted plans to roll back privatisation of the water and sewerage sector, before stripping powers from the environment and newly created indigenous affairs ministries.

He seems to have now hammered out a larger coalition with two right wing parties that previously supported Bolsonaro, the Republican Party and the Progressive Party (I know, I swear it’s on the right). The details aren’t fully finalized yet but it seems that both parties will get cabinet positions, and possibly one of them the administration of Brazil’s state owned bank, Banco do Brasil. In exchange they will help support Lula’s spending packages and measures at environmental protection and worker’s and minority rights. It’s a pretty unique coalition and presumably these parties will still not give Lula a blank check, so it will be interesting to see how things go.

Colombia

President Gustavo Petro was elected on a “Total Peace” platform to significantly reduce conflict with the country’s cartels and revolutionary groups through peace talks and by legalizing some drugs. There have been some big successes, including a ceasefire with the ELN and ongoing negotiations with the active remnants of FARC (Petro’s previous organization). However, Insight Crime has released a rather critical assessment of Total Peace overall, based off this (Spanish language) think tank report:

During its first year, the Petro government has overseen a significant reduction in confrontations between state security forces and armed groups…

Between July 2022 and August 2023, there were fewer than 100 clashes, while in 2021 there were more than 170…

But not everything is positive. The report's data show that disputes between the country's main armed groups have increased as they look to maintain and expand their territorial control. Clashes between armed groups have grown by 85% during Petro's first year in office, making it the highest figure in the last decade.

During this period, the ex-FARC mafia, ELN, and AGC have reinforced their ranks. Their combined total membership is now 7,620, according to the report. They are also supported by a network of at least 7,512 people, exceeding the figures reported in previous years, which averaged 6,000…

Although homicides have decreased by 1.5% in comparison to the last year under former president, Iván Duque (2018-2022), violence has continued unabated in the departments where armed groups have a strong presence.

The island of San Andrés and the departments of Sucre and Vaupes, where the AGC and the ex-FARC mafia have operations, have seen homicides increase by 72%, 59%, and 50% respectively. Bolivar and Putumayo also saw increases of between 10% and 20%.

At the national level, kidnapping have risen by 77% and extortion by almost 15%. In both cases, these are the highest figures in the last decade and contrast starkly against the goals of Total Peace

China

Things continue to look bleak in China. The government has stopped reporting youth unemployment numbers. Evergrande (the real estate giant from the fiasco in 2021) had their stock fall by another 80%, leaving them (if I read correctly) at under 1% of their value as of three years ago. China does appear to be taking a few scattered steps to address the situation:

Also on Monday, China halved a 0.1% tax on stock trading to "invigorate the capital market and boost investor confidence".

Major share indexes in Hong Kong and mainland China rose after the news. The move came days after the country's central bank cut one of its key interest rates for the second time in three months, in the face of falling exports and weak consumer spending.

Time writes on the global ripple effects, some negative:

Global investors have already pulled more than $10 billion from China’s stock markets, with most of the selling in blue chips. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have cut their targets for Chinese equities, with the former also warning of spillover risks to the rest of the region.

Asian economies are taking the biggest hit to their trade so far, along with countries in Africa. Japan reported its first drop in exports in more than two years in July after China cut back on purchases of cars and chips. Central bankers from South Korea and Thailand last week cited China’s weak recovery for downgrades to their growth forecasts…

as the world’s second-largest economy, a prolonged slowdown in China will hurt, rather than help, the rest of the world. An analysis from the International Monetary Fund shows how much is at stake: when China’s growth rate rises by 1 percentage point, global expansion is boosted by about 0.3 percentage points…

Many countries, especially those in Asia, count China as their biggest export market for everything from electronic parts and food to metals and energy.

The value of Chinese imports has fallen for nine of the last 10 months as demand retreats from the record highs set during the pandemic. The value of shipments from Africa, Asia and North America were all lower in July than they were a year ago.

…and some positive:

It’s not all doom-and-gloom, though. China’s slowdown will drag down global oil prices, and deflation in the country means the prices of goods being shipped around the world are falling. That’s a benefit to countries like the U.S. and U.K. still battling high inflation.

Some emerging markets like India also see opportunities, hoping to attract the foreign investment that may be leaving China’s shores.

Pakistan

The Islamabad High Court (not the Supreme Court, but kind of like the equivalent of a circuit court for the Islamabad Capital Region) has suspended Imran Khan’s prison sentence and ordered that he be released. This is still evolving and the government is resistant for now, insisting he needs to remain in jail for now. It remains to be seen how things will progress.

Zimbabwe

Predictably, the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) won last week’s election, keeping their 43 year hold on power steady. Incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa AKA The Crocodile, who took power from Mugabe six years ago in a coup, will continue to govern. South Africa and the US have acknowledged criticisms of the election but have for now called for peace. Under the constitution this is Mnangagwa’s last legal term. Most people think he will try to run again anyway, though he’s currently 80 so it’s up in the air whether he will even be alive in 2028.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan met to negotiate over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GRED) across the Nile. Ethiopia put nearly $5 billion into GERD and would be able to generate vast amounts of electricity for its energy-deprived populace, but it would reduce the flow of water to Egypt and Sudan (the Nile is the only major river that actually runs south-to-north) which Sudan is wary about and Egypt considers an existential threat to the 85% of its water supply that comes from Ethiopia. The latter two nations are demanding a legally binding agreement as to how the dam will be operated, filled, and maintained. Ethiopia, uh, doesn't want to do that. Reportedly no progress was made; the next round of talks will happen in Addis Ababa with the hypothetical deadline for an agreement in October.

Also, updates on the Ethiopian conflict in the Amhara region, following President Abiy’s attempt to integrate the Amhara paramilitary Fano into the overall military (mirroring his political project to integrate the ethnic political parties into one coalition loyal to him):

"At least 183 people have been killed in clashes since July, according to information gathered by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights", the OHCHR spokeswoman continued…

"We are very concerned about the deterioration of the human rights situation in certain regions of Ethiopia", said Marta Hurtado, stressing that the state of emergency gives the authorities wide powers.

In particular, it allows them to arrest suspects without a court order, impose curfews and ban public gatherings, she detailed."We have received reports that more than 1,000 people have been arrested throughout Ethiopia under this law.

Many of them are young people of Amhara ethnic origin suspected of being supporters of Fano", she said."Since the beginning of August, massive house-to-house searches have reportedly taken place", she added."We call on the authorities to put an end to the mass arrests, to ensure that any deprivation of liberty is subject to judicial review, and to release those arbitrarily detained", she said, calling on all those involved in the conflict "to put an end to the killings, other violations and abuses".

NPR also has a retrospective on the conflict of the past few years, “How did Ethiopia go from its leader winning the Nobel Peace Prize to war in a year?”, which I’m partially sharing because the guest is one incredibly named GEBREKIRSTOS GEBRESELASSIE GEBREMESKEL.

Transnational Thursdays 14

5 comments - 846 thread views 8mo ago by Soriek (text post)

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from around the world. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the Ukraine War, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Pakistan

The Intercept claims that leaked documents show the US approved via cable of the coup against Imran Khan (who has now been sentenced to three years in prison and five years of being banned from politics). Reportedly this was because Khan wouldn’t back the US in the Ukrainian conflict with Russia, as well as his general anti-American stance on most foreign policy issues; since Khan’s ouster the interim military gov has helped to arm Ukraine. Wall Street Journal pushes back against this narrative:

the evidence that Washington precipitated Mr. Khan’s downfall is laughably thin. Mr. Khan lost power after falling out with his former patron, then army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. Gen. Bajwa didn’t need U.S. permission or help to do what Pakistani generals have done for decades: boot civilian leaders from government…

the purported cable is Pakistani, not American. A Pakistani smoking gun can’t establish American culpability. The idea that the U.S. was busy plotting regime change in distant Pakistan in the midst of a major war in Europe is far-fetched. And who would try to oust the leader of another country by telegraphing it in advance through a diplomat? As for Pakistan’s modest contributions to the Ukrainian war effort, these were always in the army’s domain and would have happened regardless of who was prime minister.

Reality is much more prosaic. Mr. Khan and Gen. Bajwa famously clashed in 2021 when Mr. Khan failed in an attempt to overrule Gen. Bajwa over the appointment of a new head of the army’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. By March last year, it was common knowledge in Pakistan that the army had decided to get rid of Mr. Khan through a no-confidence vote, George Mason University political scientist Ahsan Butt points out in a phone interview. The idea that Gen. Bajwa needed a green light from Washington to defeat Mr. Khan makes no sense. “That’s just not how Pakistani politics works,” Mr. Butt said. Khan supporters may find it hard to accept, but over the past decade U.S. interest in Pakistan has declined precipitously, spurred by alleged Pakistani perfidy in the war on terror, the continuing U.S. pivot to India, and the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

No idea who is correct here.

United States + Asia

Recently Joe Biden has made significant progress on cementing Obama’s seemingly stillwater pivot towards Asia. In January the United States and India announced the Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET) pact and in June agreed upon a significant military aid package replete with significant technology transfers. Last week Bidenheld the first ever trilateral summit at Camp David between America and recent bitter rivals Japan and Korea to agree on lasting security cooperation. Both countries in turn have strengthened their ties with NATO lately (Korea is the second largest arms dealer to Poland atm, believe it or not) and Japan has also agreed to expand its own military materiel transfers to countries friendly to this growing alliance, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Fiji . Biden has also now agreed to sign a strategic partnership with Vietnam. With China’s own economy looking rocky, this past month has represented an impressive expansion of American diplomatic ties with the Indo-Pacific.

Spain

Previously I’ve covered that the left and right wing coalitions in Spain are both sitting with 171 votes and are both courting the tiny regional parties to give them a majority. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez seems to be gaining ground and has now struck a deal with the Catalan independence party Junts to approve their preferred Catalan socialist candidate to preside over Parliament. To clarify, this does not actually give Sanchez the support he needs to remain as Prime Minister (yet) but allows Parliament to start forming committees, passing laws, etc. Junts had been holding out for amnesty for their leader-in-exile Carles Puigdemont but they seem to have dropped these demands at the moment in exchange “for new measures promoting the use of the Catalan language in the Spanish parliament and the creation of a special committee tasked with investigating surveillance of Catalan separatists.”

The King has now asked Alberto Núñez Feijoo, head of the center right People's Party which won the most votes, to form a government, which at the moment he surely cannot do. Unless he pulls together a last minute alliance, if he loses then Sanchez will get his chance to form a government.

Guatemala

The build up to the election on Sunday was particularly fraught, with a number of anti-establishment candidates banned and the government attempting at the last minute to disqualify underdog Bernardo Arévalo after he qualified for the runoff. Arévalo, son of the first democratically elected President of Guatemala, has now sailed through and won the election with a commanding 58% vs 37% and will be the next leader of Guatemala. This is a surprisingly positive outcome after months of democratic backsliding. The runner up, Sandra Torres, has now come second place for her third election in a row. Arévalo’s agenda is oriented around anticorruption. He is a member of the moderate left* so he will pursue progressive reforms and infrastructure spending but continue to be allied with the US and opposed to Nicaragua & Venezuela. He can expect to still deal with obstruction from the courts and rival parties but President Giametti has already recognized him as the new President elect.

*It should be said that Sandra Torres was also relatively, running for the social democrat party - what distinguishes them aside from her stricter stance on crime is mostly loyalty to / rejection of the country’s elites.

Ecuador

The Ecuadorian election was held on Sunday in the midst of escalating cartel violence and political assassinations, including of one of the Presidential candidates. The Democratic Socialist party made it to the runoff under Rafael Correa’s protege, Luisa González, who will face against an outsider businessman named Daniel Noboa who is the heir to a major banana exporting company. The result will bring either Ecuador’s first woman president or its youngest president ever, though either of them will only govern for a year and a half to finish Guillermo Lasso’s term before a new election must be held. The major issues in debate for the runoff election will be cartel violence and the economy.

Separately, Ecuador finally ended an issue in debate for six years by voting in a referendum to ban the state oil company from drilling in a significant stretch of the Amazon.

Thailand

The populist, anti-military party Pheu Thai has finally formed a government by coalitioning with the military (and nine other parties) after all. This is a highly controversial coalition as the success of Pheu Thai (and the now marginalized Move Forward) was based around a support base sick of rule by the military and the monarchy. Real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin will be the new Prime Minister, which at least ends the literal military leadership of Chan-o-cha. I’ve mentioned before that people should expect US-Thailand relations to get better rather than worse following the military blocking the actual underdog Pita; the nomination of US-educated Thavisin will likely further cement that.

Following Pheu Thai, formally coming to power, Thailand’s incredibly famous former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has now returned after being deposed in a coup in 2009 and exiled ever since. He was arrested hours after landing but most likely will be released soon, as part of the deal for Pheu Thai working with the military (the Thaskin family is still very influential in Pheu Thai; his daughter was a possible candidate for PM).

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe held elections yesterday. The results haven't been released (voting has actually been extended for another day). My assumption, though I would love to be proved wrong, is it will result in a victory for the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF: Robert Mugabe’s party which has won all nine elections since 1980.) Incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa is only the second post-colonial leader, having taken power from Mugabe in a coup in 2017. In yesterday’s election he was squared off against Citizens Coalition for Change’s Nelson Chamisa and Mnangagwa’s victory is a repeat of their same match up in 2018. The economy has been so bleak that many Zimbabweans leave the country to find work in other parts of southern Africa, where they often face discrimination (notoriously so in South Africa). If ZANU-PF remains entrenched, this will likely not improve any time soon.

Gabon

On Saturday the people of Gabon will go to the polls. Nineteen different candidates are running but the presumed victor will likely be 14 year incumbent Ali Bongo Ondimba, latest leader of the wildly corrupt Bongo family which has ruled Gabon for over half a century.

Transnational Thursdays 13

14 comments - 910 thread views 8mo ago by Soriek (text post)

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from around the world. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the Ukraine War, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Argentina

Paging @DaseindustriesLtd

Argentina opened the first of its three rounds of elections on Sunday; the main three way election will happen on October 22, and if no one gets a majority (very likely) then the two top ranked candidates will go to a runoff November 19. To the surprise of everyone, the largely fringe turbo-libertarian Javier Milei won unexpectedly, placing him as the front runner for October, and making him suddenly the talk of the town in international press. Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, performed terribly in recent municipal and regional elections; his own polling at its best was mixed and his ideas polled much worse than himself a man. So his 30% results in the primary genuinely surprised most people. The results look even more impressive at the provincial level, where Milei won 16 of 24 provinces, with remaining provinces divided between the other parties:

[Milei’s] ultra-liberal discourse was imposed, as was foreseeable, in urban centers with more middle classes, such as the cities of Córdoba or Mendoza . But the electoral surprise was greater when the scrutiny revealed that the leader of La Libertad Avanza also reached the poorest districts of the country. ..

As happened in Chaco and Jujuy, Milei was the candidate with the most votes for the PASO in most of the poorest districts in the country, according to the survey carried out by Infobae .

These poorer areas are the traditional stronghold of the Peronists/Kirchnerists, so their switch to the libertarian is quite the sea change. ¿Quien es Milei?

Javier Milei is a former economist and Congressman who’s built up a huge media presence in the past year. It’s a little like if one of the weirdo right wing internet influencers we sometimes discuss here became a major party candidate, down to the fact that he rages about leftism while also being kinda libertine and degenerate, partial to the occasional threesome, moonlighting as a tantric sex instructor, and running with a VP who I guess does cosplay. Otherwise, socially he’s a grab bag of right-wing culture war talking points, generalized hatred of the elites (whom he calls “the caste”), banning abortion in all cases including rape and incest, the right to bear arms, climate change is a hoax, etc - plus a few out there ideas, like the novel proposal that people should be able to sell their own organs or children on the free market.

But really Milei’s support is behind economics, because there’s nowhere that the establishment parties have failed more manifestly. The ruling party, Unión por la Patria (previously Frente de Todos), is the Peronist/Kirchnerist left mega-populist party which set the institutional tone for Argentina’s stagnation since the 30s. Their opposition, the center right Juntos Del Cambio, was originally elected to do what Milei says he will - utterly reform the broken system the Kirchnerists created. And to their credit they did oversee some significant reforms, but most critically failed to address Argentina’s central ill of inflation (partially because it would have conflicted with their other campaign pledge to balance budgets). After a brief upward surge in the economy after they took power, ultimately they left it as they found it, in shambles.

With both parties dropping the ball so horrifically on inflation, Milei has made the centerpiece of his campaign a highly controversial plan to switch from pesos to dollars. Surely this would address inflation (just by keeping it at US rates) but the transition would be remarkably painful. Supposedly about 60% of voters actually oppose the plan and it’s not actually clear Argentina can physically, literally do this - many people apparently think they genuinely do not have sufficient reserves to convert their existing money base entirely into dollars. There’s also the risk that it would hurt competitiveness by inflating the value of Argentina’s exports relative to the region; this was one of the big criticisms of the 90s peso convertibility. Even so, possibly this is still preferable to nonstop runaway inflation.

Milei’s “chainsaw plan” also includes: “eliminating 11 government ministries, reducing government spending by 15% of the country’s GDP, and privatizing or closing down state companies and agencies, among other austerity measures. A potential Milei administration would also eliminate free state schools and healthcare, and replace them with a “voucher system” designed to subsidize whoever needs them, according to his government plan.” I couldn’t really comment on how useful Argentina’s government ministries are, eliminating them could actually be disastrous, especially for their pension system - but it should be said that currently Argentina funds its government expenses with the money printer, so if inflation is ever going to be addressed spending does have to curbed (though perhaps the medicine doesn’t need to be quite that extreme).

To be clear, the election is still anyone’s contest. Milei pulled ahead of the establishment parties only by a hair, and this with neither of them formally unified under a chosen candidate. Also, 30% of the electorate abstained (voting is mandatory in Argentina so this means more than it would most places) and almost half of the ballots were left blank or null. LA’s poor performance in municipal and regional elections also indicates that his party may be less popular than he is, and if he wins with a minority there’s no chance his zanier ideas will be pushed through (and with no provincial governments under LA control he loses a major route to reduce spending). Still, it certainly represents a population extremely weary with their governing parties.

China

The whole world seems to be talking about China’s economy starting to corrode, as economic activity slows down and deflation has begun to set in:

China's National Bureau of Statistics announced Wednesday that consumer prices dropped annually in July for the first time in two years, dipping 0.3%, just slightly better than median estimates for a 0.4% decrease . . .

Year-to-date, China's exports are down 5% compared to last year, while imports have dipped 7.6%

Manufacturing activity has contracted for four straight months July exports declined at the sharpest rate in three years, at 14.5% annually

Doomsaying about how China’s overleveraged, ponzi scheme-esque real estate sector will spell the end have been going on forever without materializing, though now maybe they finally are. Various pundits have already started asking if we’ll soon look at China the way we now do Japan - confused that we ever considered them a serious economic rival. This seems a little premature to me, but I also don’t follow China closely and would be interested to hear from others.

Japan

Speaking of which, Japan grew at a remarkable 6% this quarter, more than doubling expectations. Aside from one crazy quarter in 2020 this is the highest rate they’ve had in a very long time. BBC reports that Japan’s tumbling currency, down 10% relative to the dollar, has actually been a boon for exports, which coupled with an influx of tourism has given their stagnant economy a little boost:

Profits at the country's car makers - including Toyota, Honda and Nissan - have been boosted in recent months as they saw increased demand for exports. While a weak currency makes what the country imports more expensive, prices of commodities on global markets, like oil and gas, have fallen in recent months. That has resulted in a drop in the value of imports, down 4.3% from the previous quarter, which EY's Nobuko Kobayashi called "a major culprit for GDP growth".

Japan's economy has also been helped by a rise in tourist numbers after the government lifted border restrictions at the end of April. As of June, the number of foreign visitors to Japan had recovered to more than 70% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the country's national tourism authority. Spending by tourists is also expected to give the country's economy an even bigger boost from this month after China lifted a ban on group travel. Before the pandemic Chinese visitors accounted for more than a third of tourist spending in Japan.

I’ve reported previously on Japan and Korea ending their trade war and normalizing relations following the comfort women/forced labor lawsuits. Japanese PM Kishida, Korean President Yoon, and Biden will now hold their first ever standalone meeting on Friday to “institutionalize their trilateral ties”. This will mean holding yearly summits like this, strengthening security cooperation, training, and intelligence sharing against threats from China and North Korea. “The three leaders are also expected to signal deeper cooperation in areas such as cybersecurity, supply chain resilience and fighting economic coercion.”

Ecuador

Following the assassination of a mayor, which put two of Ecuador’s provinces under a state of emergency, and the assassination of a candidate for the Presidential election, which put the rest of the country under a state of emergency, a third politician has now been killed - all of this in under a month and barely a week away from election. Pesto Briones was a local leader in the Esmeraldas province for the democratic socialist Revolución Ciudadana, party of the previous presidents Rafeal Correa and Lenín Moreno (the latter of whom later left/was expelled), and the current leading party in the polls for the upcoming election. This has been a remarkably violent period for Ecuador. Beyond the political violence overall homicides in 2022 were 4600, double the previous year, and 2023 is on pace to exceed that number still; so far there have been reportedly been 3,568 murders compared with 2,042 at the same point in the year during 2022.

Six Colombians have now been arrested in the murder of Fernando Villavicencio. Details are sparse but the Colombian drug trade is intertwined with Ecuador’s, and Villaviencio had been threatened by the cartels. Reportedly Villavicencio’s family has accused the Ecuadorian government of neglecting to provide sufficient security, lacking armored/bulletproof cars, leading him through public entrances and exits rather than established side routes, etc. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in a message offering condolences for the assassination, made explicit the comparison between this and the group of Colombian mercenaries who assassinated the Haitian President Jovenel Moise.

South Africa

Former President Jacon Zuma has now been released after only two months of his sentence, reportedly due to a program to reduce prison overcrowding. Zuma was the previous leader of the ANC, and the central opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has accused the move of political corruption (supposedly the overcrowding reduction measure was passed shortly after Zuma was sentenced). The far left Economic Freedom Fighters, who in part started as the anti-Zuma block of the ANC till they were expelled, have switched their tune and have been trying to pull away Zuma supporters from the ANC (Zuma and current President Ramaphosa are rivals), so are likely to be supportive.

The economy overall looks staggeringly bleak in advance of their election. Official unemployment has hit 33%, with observers suggesting the real rate may be as high as 42%.

When it comes to youth unemployment, the rate is 61% of 15- to 24-year-olds, according to official statistics, and a staggering 71% if you again count those who are no longer trying . . . it equates to 24 million adults out of a population of 60 million who are either unemployed or not involved in any economic activity and barely surviving . . . South Africa’s GDP needs to grow by 6% a year to start creating enough jobs just for the 700,000 people who enter the workforce every year…South Africa’s growth hasn’t approached that much-needed figure for more than a decade. Its economy — which grew by 2% last year — is expected to grow by less than 1% this year and between 1% and 2% for the next five years.’

Ethiopia

Less than a year after the war in the country’s northern Tigray region ended, Ethiopia’s military is battling an ethnic militia in the neighboring Amhara region in a part of Africa already ravaged by conflict.

The Amhara are the historic ruling group of Ethiopia, previously unseated by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, who after they were unseated in turn, later helped fill the ranks of the Tigray secessionist group from last year’s war. Current President Abiy Ahmed is a half-Amhara, half-Oromo who holds both ethnic parties within his Prosperity Party coalition. However, he’s been blamed for some attacks on the Oromo (or for not doing enough to stop them) and is accused of leaning towards his Amhara side, at least by the Oromo secessionist groups which the government has also had to deal with.

This makes it somewhat ironic that Amhara forces are now turning against him as well. His post-war project has been to consolidate the different ethnic militias into a formal security force, just as he (somewhat) did by forming the ethnic political parties into one ostensible party. The Amhara militia Fano, which played a major role in fighting for the government during the Tigrayan War, has balked at this attempt to strip away their autonomy and (supposedly) leave them less secure to other ethnic attacks, and fighting has broken out. For now the government seems to have gained the upper hand and regained control of the areas taken by Fano, but the conflict is certainly not over. Ethiopia is straining right now under the weight of Sudanese refugees, so hopefully the conflict does not escalate.

Transnational Thursdays 12

16 comments - 768 thread views 8mo ago by Soriek (text post)

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from around the world. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the Ukraine War, or even just whatever you’re reading.

Ecuador

Fernando Villavicencio, a Presidential candidate for the upcoming August 20 race, was [tragically assassinated yesterday](Fernando Villavicencio). He wasn’t really a front runner or anything, though he was pretty outspoken about crime and narcotics trafficking. For now President Lasso is blaming it on organized crime (certainly plausible) and has declared a state of emergency for the country for 60 days. He’s previously declared a state of emergency in two of Ecuador's provinces so this will now temporarily extend the suspension of civil liberties to the entire country. For now the election will continue as normal.

Niger

Last week ECOWAS threatened an intervention if the Nigerien military wouldn’t back down after their coup. Senegal, Benin and Ivory Coast were all willing to intervene but much depended on Nigeria, which holds the largest military in ECOWAS, over 20 times the size of Niger’s. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu was indeed one of the most prominent advocates for intervening, however (thanks to @random_ranger for bringing it up) Nigeria recently held a vote on the intervention and Tinubu’s own party handily overruled him and voted against intervention. The Sunday deadline has now passed without incident and for now a West African war seems to be off. Niger remains heavily sanctioned, with overseas assets frozen, and much of their electricity cut off from Nigeria.

Spain

Recapping from last week, the Spanish election ended with a perfect stalemate between two coalitions: the center right PP and far right Vox vs the left PSOE and the farther left Sumar. The coalitions are both competing for tie breaker parties: the EH Bildu, the Basque Nationalist Party, the Republican Left of Catalonia and Junts (the Catalan independence party), but the nationalist Vox is disliked by these, especially the historically secessionist parties, putting PP at a big disadvantage. PSOE leader and current Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has taken advantage of this and has been trying to court a deal with the Catalans and Basques without offering them too much in the way of concessions. Currently PSOE and Sumar have been offering to update the regional financing system, or to allow them to speak their regional languages in parliament, but what Junts in particular wants is for their fugitive leader Puigdemont to be allowed to return to the country with legal immunity for the last Catalan independence referendum - a nonstarter for both sides, at least for now.

Vox, surprisingly, has responded in reasonable fashion by now offering their full support to a conservative coalition even if their own members aren’t included in the new government. This has got the right wing coalition…at least one more vote, but at least opens up long shot negotiations to get a separatist party to abstain from voting. With both sides competing for the basque and Catalan parties, they are certainly going to leverage their position to demand as much as is possible.

Pakistan

Imran Khan has officially been jailed for three years and banned from politics for five years. This was followed by huge protests with over a thousand people arrested. President Arif Alvi has now disbanded the National Assembly and an interim government (not yet formed) will take charge till elections. Speaking of which, elections are supposed to happen in three months but a government spokesperson has said it may be more like four months as they do a census recount and redraw electoral boundaries. Two controversial bills enhancing the power of the military and the intelligence services have also been passed in the now defunct National Assembly and await Alvi’s signature:

Proposed amendments to the century-old Official Secrets Act will broadly empower the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to arrest citizens over "suspected breach of official secrets". In addition, a new bill recommends a three-year jail term for anyone who discloses the identity of an intelligence official.

Thailand

If you’ve followed the coverage in previous weeks, you’ll know the general outline that two anti-military, anti-monarchy parties won big in the last election. They tried to form a coalitional government but the military objected strongly to the more radical party, Move Forward, and rejected its leader Pita from the Prime Ministership. His party has now been ejected entirely from the coalition and the less radical party, Pheu Thai, seems to have shelved its most serious criticisms of the monarchy-military axis and has been making forward strides forming a government, with the Bhumjaithai Party and the much smaller Chart Thai Pattana Party joining their coalition. They’re now thirteen seats away from a majority but their remaining options are rough. They can either work with the pro-monarchy Democrats, or violate their pledge not to coalition with the military and ally with Palang Pracharath Party or the United Thai Nation, the ruling pro-military parties that led the last coup in 2014. Both options would incur pretty serious backlash from their more committed members.

Italy

Italy’s rocky road to chart an economic course continues. They’ve been pushing a series of reforms, including raising taxi licenses by 20% and formally ending Covid restrictions; now they’re back on taxes. Banks have been pulling record profits, up 64% from the previous year, and the Italian government has now proposed a 40% tax on “ the difference between the interest they pay customers on deposits and the interest they earn on loans.” This is in the same vein as a measure Spain has pushed last year and the funds would be redistributed downwards (funny hearing Matteo Silvini talk about promoting “social equality”) to make up for some of the effects of European Central Bank interest rates. Stocks responded in decisive fashion by falling across the board. Italy already seems to be backing down.

Transnational Thursdays 11

14 comments - 517 thread views 8mo ago by Soriek (text post)

Spain

Last week I reported that the socialists had clinched a surprise win insofar as the center right PP and the far right Vox had failed to win a majority, leaving the leftists better positioned to find a coalition partner (because Vox is toxic to many other parties). Votes have now been counted up from overseas and have propelled the right wing forward, placing both the left and right flanks at exactly 171 out of 350 seats. Now either party needs to secure only five more votes and the remaining parties are awkwardly in between. PSOE’s remaining hope for a third coalition party is now Junts, the Catalan independence party, which leans right but has had a good relationship with PM Pedro Sanchez in the past. Things are complicated by Sanchez’ thus-far refusal to entertain their demands. PP has also reached out to Junts for negotiations, but are constrained in what they can offer by their partnership with Vox, whose very existence was partially inspired by a nationalist backlash to Catalan independence. Worse case scenario nobody is elected, and they have to have another election in two months.

Italy

Watchers have been wondering for a while how Meloni will address Italy’s relationship with China, as Italy seeks to balance sustaining its economy with their alliances. The government has now formally said joining China’s Belt and Road was a mistake with scant economic benefits for the country. Italy will now make moves towards leaving the agreement, if possible without damaging their relationship with China.

After a White House meeting with the US president, Joe Biden, on Thursday, the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, said her government had until December to make a decision on the BRI, and also announced she would soon travel to Beijing.

I know a lot of readers here have an impression that American foreign policy is oriented around spreading progressivism or some such - I highlight this to make the point that no, really America’s goal is hegemony and it’s more than willing to tolerate right-populist governments like Italy, Hungary, or Poland if they give meaningful support against American enemies. Speaking of which:

Thailand

The Thai elections in May were a major upset for the military-monarchy axis that rules Thailand, bringing two populist, anti-corruption parties, Move Forward and Pheu Thai, into the forefront. Despite winning a majority in the House, Move Forward was blocked by the military dominant Senate and has now been excluded from the coalition by Pheu Thai, which has decided that it now it supports the monarchy, will coalition with the military appointed MPs, and wants a smarmy real estate mogul to lead their anti-corruption party. The courts are reviewing whether it was unconstitutional to block Move Forward but no one expects them to defy the military. In the meantime the King has allowed Chan-Ocha, the former Army Commander who has ruled since the 2014 coup, to continue to rule as normal.

You may have noticed the US hasn’t formerly condemned this anti-democratic measure by a government dominated by ostensibly our two least favorite things: kings and soldiers. America and the Thai military have actually had a very close relationship for a long time, one that was damaged by the 2014 coup because it saw Thailand buying more military equipment from China. Since then Thailand has shifted back in our orbit, losing confidence in the benefits of the unfinished Belt and Road projects and joining the US-backed anti-China alliance, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. While (to the extent they follow it) American civil society and media may support Move Forward, the American government is indifferent/opposed. It is much more important that Thailand balance towards us and away from China (and they weren’t thrilled with our recent refusal to sell them F-35s), so the US is unlikely to oppose them here.

Haiti

Of all places, Kenya has offered to send a military force to Haiti to bolster security and also train local police forces. Haiti (uh, whoever still represents them diplomatically), the US and other Latin American nations have endorsed the plan and will bring it up as a formal UN Resolution, where Sec General Antonio Guterres has already given his support. Keep in mind Haitian President Jovenel Moise was assasinated two years ago and Haiti has been largely in a state of anarchy since, so it’s somewhat astounding it took the world this long to agree on a half hearted intervention, and one from a country with a serious police brutality problem and that speaks an entirely different language no less. Things have gotten especially bleak lately as more and more aid organizations have left the island due to attacks on their staff; Tuesday featured a huge Haitian protest against the kidnapping of an American nurse and her child. America will likely help fund the intervention effort to some extent but it’s unclear to what degree.

Colombia

Over the past few months there has been something of an internecine war in the Colombian government. Unlike many countries, the Attorney General is neither appointed by the President nor elected but instead appointed by the Supreme Court. Because prior to the current left wing Administration Colombia had basically only been governed by the right/center-right, the Supreme Court is conservative as well, and thus so is current Attorney General Francisco Barbosa Delgado. Delgado has made it somewhat of a personal mission to root out corruption/stop President Petro from doing anything at all, and has targeted several other high ranking members of the Administration with investigations. From the outside it’s very hard to tell what is actually corruption vs what is politically motivated, but things have now culminated in the arrest of Petro’s son who was accused of taking cartel money by a seemingly credible source, which is to say: his wife. The wife (Petro’s daughter in law) has now been arrested as well and an ongoing investigation remains on Petro’s brother. Many of Petro’s primary reforms were unable to pass in the previous legislative session and the weight of these corruption scandals is unlikely to make things any easier in the upcoming session.

Niger

The hypothetical coup seems very much to have turned into a full military coup in Niger. The West African regional body ECOWAS responded by sanctioning Niger, freezing all of their assets, and demanding that the military relinquish power. In a twist, Mali and Burkina Faso (which both recently also had military coups) responded by actually threatening war if ECOWAS intervened. This is a semi-laughable threat as, despite literally being ruled by the military, neither Mali nor Burkina Faso have much in the way of a meaningful military, hence their reliance on French/Russian forces (and remember, these countries are basically already at civil war with Islamist insurgents). Still, it’s unlikely that the other West African states, many of them dealing with instability of their own, have much appetite for a real conflict. On the other hand, the US has announced its support for ECOWAS, has invested a lot in Nigerien security, and is increasingly worried about growing Russian influence, so they may be a factor as well. If the Niger coup remains it will likely join the ranks of Burkina Faso and Mali in kicking out the French military (France is already evacuating its citizens after attacks on its embassy) and becoming closer with the Wagner Group instead.

Lebanon

Significant violence has broken out in the Lebanese Palestinian refugee camps between supporters of the PLO (the nominal government of Palestine, in charge of the West Bank) and Fatah (the Islamist faction that runs Gaza), causing thousands to flee (as an aside, a Palestinian woman once told me that people joked the Israeli Palestinian refugee camps were five star resorts compared to the Lebanese camps.) Both Hezbollah and the PLO have called for an end to the violence.

Riad Salameh, looong time head of the Lebanese Central Bank, has finally stepped down in disgrace for mismanaging the crisis and for embezzlement charges. Three years after the explosion in Beirut, Lebanese citizens still have limits on how much they can withdrawal from their bank accounts to prevent a bank run, inflation is rampant and 80% of the country lives in poverty.

The factional Lebanese government has struggled to formerly appoint a replacement. Wassim Mansouri will take over as the interim Governor in the meantime, and has promised to oversee reforms, including “setting up a capital control law, a financial restructuring law and a 2023 state budget within six months”

Transnational Thursdays 10

13 comments - 1029 thread views 9mo ago by Soriek (text post)

Transnational Thursdays 10

Happy 10th TT guys, feels like some kind of accomplishment.

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from around the world. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the Ukraine War, or even just whatever you’re reading. Last week’s thread covered forgotten wars, to give a sense of how flexible it is.

Spain

Observers expected Spain’s elections to bring a right wing government into power. However, the ruling socialist PSOE did better than expected (given their recent large losses in municipal and local elections) and the far right Vox did far worse. The center right PP pulled ahead of PSOE, but Vox’s loss of 19 seats prevents the two parties from together forming a majority. PSOE and the farther left Sumar together are smaller still, but probably have better odds of finding a third coalitional partner due to Vox’s toxicity for third parties. This probably means that current PM Sanchez would need to coalition with the Basque or Catalan independence parties, who he has decent relations with but would still likely require playing to some of their demands.

Niger

Niger’s president Mohamed Bazoum yesterday announced the presidential guards had locked him inside the palace in what seems to be an attempted coup. He says the army stands ready to defend him but apparently not so - the military has now taken him prisoner and announced they’ve taken power of the country. Niger is legendary for their coups and no one would pretend Bazoum was a great leader, but coming on a string on military coups across West Africa it’s mostly just depressing.

Ecuador

Violence has been bad in Ecuador for a while now, culminating in the high profile assassination of a mayor last week. President Guillermo Lasso, who a few months ago dismissed Congress and has ruled by decree since, recently declared a state of emergency in two affected provinces suspending freedom of assembly and movement. You may remember also Honduras declaring a state of emergency after a prison riot and giving control of the prison system to the military. Ecuador has now done the same for Ecuador's own prison system following a strangely similar prison riot. Lasso has said that he will not run for reelection but his increasing authoritarianism has kept watchers skeptical.

Guatemala

As of now it looks like Bernardo Arévalo will be legally allowed to participate in the runoff election but the Attorney General has been cracking down however possible, recently issuing a police order to raid his campaign headquarters. Semilla supporters and civil society groups have been protesting in response. The US has now added several related prosecutors to the Engels targeted sanction list along with officials who participated in the politically motivated crackdown against the journalist José Rubén Zamora for criticizing government corruption.

Argentina

Argentina and the IMF are supposedly near to reaching yet another agreement to help pay back the $44 billion they took on under the previous administration. The payments were conditional on Argentina doing some fiscally responsible stuff like shoring up reserves and moderating their deficit, which they definitely didn’t do, but they have now demonstrated some reform willingness by announcing a new preferential exchange rate for export goods and raising some import taxes. This is a five month deal so it would last until a new president takes office in December.

Kenya

President William Ruto, who took office last year as a progressive champion of the poor, recently raised taxes to help Kenya pay back its debts. Coming during a period of prolonged inflation, this spurred waves of protests against the government, led by the opposition coalition Azimio and their leader Raila Odinga. Police brutality has responded in turn and things have spiraled further. The protests have grown increasingly looting-filled, but the allegations about police brutality aren’t a joke either:

More than two dozen rights groups including Amnesty International last week said they had evidence of 27 “extrajudicial, summary and arbitrary executions” in July alone.

Ruto has formerly offered to have a sitdown meeting with Odinga but the latter has refused. Odinga was the opposition candidate in the last two elections and feels 2017 was stolen from him (it probably was), so is now unwilling to deal with current government.

Burkina Faso

France has withdrawn its troops as well as its ambassador yesterday following the demands of Burkina Faso’s military junta. This is despite the fact that almost half of Burkinabe territory is considered to be dominated by radical groups, whether Taureg secessionists from Mali or Islamist fundamentalist groups. The conflict has been especially bad lately and over a tenth of the population has been displaced, causing the Norweigan Refugee Council to rank Burkina Faso as the world’s most neglected displacement crisis. Still, the new government has made an anti-French stance a central plank of their governance and has alo suspended French owned media channels. Following their departure from Mali, also at the behest of a military junta, France only has about 3000 troops left, mostly in Niger and Chad.

India

You may remember previous coverage of the escalating ethnic violence in the Manipur region. Opposition parties in India are now initiating a vote of no confidence against Modi for his refusal to address the conflict, which has displaced over 60,000 people. The vote is assuredly stillborn against a BJP majority.

Modi has “revealed” his plank for a third term. Unfortunately I can’t really find details but it’s completely oriented around development. India was the tenth largest economy when Modi took office and is now the fifth; Modi has promised to raise it to third place. Obligatory pinging of /u/self_made_human.

Cambodia

Cambodian President Hun Sen, who has ruled essentially since the collapse of the Khmer Rouge, claimed another landslide win a few days ago in a completely farcical election. A tragedy for the good people of Cambodia but a huge W for dedicated Hun watchers hoping for their boy to hold onto his high score:

Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen, 70, has been in power since 1985 – only the leaders of Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, both also authoritarians, have held office longer.

I wonder if when you reach this level you feel like you’re in a competition with the other heavy hitters.

Perhaps not, because shockingly yesterday he announced his formal resignation, ending his tenure as Asia’s preeminent dictator. That said, Hun has said that he will stay on as leader of the communist party and his son - who was literally only just elected as an MP - will now become Prime Minister, so we certainly haven’t heard the last of him yet.

Transnational Thursdays 9 Special Edition: Forgotten Wars

4 comments - 1180 thread views 9mo ago by Soriek (text post) Edited 9mo ago

This is a weekly thread for people to talk about foreign policy, current international relations events, or chat about IR history. Generally I start with a series of updates on different countries but the format here should be pretty free form / whatever people are interested in. To demonstrate that I want to have a special thread on less-remembered wars. Feel free to share your own (no need for it to be this long), or to talk about something completely else!

The Libyan-Turkic War

It’s pretty easy to understand why the 1911 Libyan invasion isn’t on anyone’s radar, being dwarfed by the size and devastation of World War 1, but I think it gets short shrift. After all, for Turkey and Libya this conflict might as well have been the start of World War 1. From Libya onwards Turkey is in constant war up until the conclusion of the Greco-Turkish war in 1922. For Italy the vast sums they spent on this war had significant repercussions for their performance in the war of 1914 and their political situation afterwards. Beyond putting World War 1 into a broader context, this is also a unique and interesting war in its own right. One historian, Sean McMeekin, described it as the last of the nineteenth century style wars on colonial conquest as well as the first of the twentieth century style anti-colonial guerilla wars. It also featured some of the first instances of modern technology, including the first use of a plane in a battle, and the first instance of a plane getting shot down in a battle.

The Italian Position

So what drove Italy towards this war? Basically a desire to join the ranks of the imperial powers. Italy had only been formed in 1861 and fully consolidated in 1871. Like Germany, they were late to the ranks of European nation states aspiring towards empire, and felt the need to catch up for prestige by snatching Somaliland and Eritrea. When I say the Libyan invasion was mostly about prestige, I feel like it sounds odd because nowadays it’s obvious why Libya is important to control. But oil wasn’t discovered until 1959 – back then it’s basically a patch of desert with a few slums. It mostly remained as part of the Ottoman Empire because the other, more powerful European colonizers didn't think it was worth conquering as they snatched up the other North African provinces.

At the 1878 Congress of Berlin France took Tunisia and Britain took Cyprus; to get Italy to sign off they soft promised them Libya. This was further cemented by a secret deal between France and Italy in 1902 for the French to respect an Italian invasion, and another deal in 1909 for Russian recognition of Italian Libyan in exchange for Italian recognition of Russian Bosporus.

In 1908 this started to build into a huge sort of nationalist movement centered around Libya, with articles in the press, wonderful propaganda posters, politicians drumming up support and so forth. The main opposition to the war effort was the Italian Socialist Party. In fact, socialists had been tenuously supportive of centrist Prime Minister Giovanni Giolitti at the time, who had been courting them by expanding the right to vote and cinducting nationalizations, but the Libyan War was a major cleavage that drove them away from the coalition. The divide between the right and the left in Italy would never fully heal and only grow more violent in the buildup towards fascism. Itonically, one of the loudest voices against the invasion at the time was the young Benito Mussolini, back when he was still a leading luminary in the anti-war socialist movement and before he had decided that war and imperialism were actually hella sick. This is just one of the countless fascinating ways this conflict acts as a hinge between completely different eras.

The Ottoman Position

Meanwhile, on the other side, well, people debate on exactly where Turkey’s fall begin, but suffice it to say they had been taking Ls for a very long time. From the Crimean War onwards they had been giving successively more privileges to the European powers, giving up more of their control of their own finances, and watching as their provinces softly secede themselves away, like Egypt, or get gobbled up by Europe, like Tunisia and Morocco.

This instability, coupled with the repressive absolutism of Abdul Hamid II, had led to the famous Young Turks revolution, bringing forth the government that would famously later cause the brutal Armenian genocide. After their revolution in 1908, this conflict three years later will be their first major test – in fact they literally hold their first congress at the exact same time the invasion is launched.

Things Go Down

On September 26 the Italians extend an ultimatum to the Ottoman Empire to hand over Libya in a trustee-style relationship like Britain had for Egypt, where the Ottomans were technically in charge on paper but the Europeans called all the shots. Indignity of indignities, the Ottomans said no. The game is on.

The Italians were less prepared than they had hoped due to socialist opposition, but they still started rallying an army of 34,000 to go against the under 5000 Ottoman regulars in Libya. The Ottoman Empire was in a particularly difficult position for shoring up their own position because they had no direct land access to Libya – British Egypt was in between Turkey and Libya and the Anglos refused to allow the Ottomans to move their troops over land. This meant they had to pass through disguised as Arab civilians or advance over sea, but the Italians had significant sea dominance. Mustafa Kemal, the future future leader of the republic of Turkey, has to sneak in on a Russian ship disguised as a journalist. In time the Turkish forces would also grow to includes thousands of Bedouin guerilla fighters.

In the initial phase of the war the Italians basically just sailed up and 1500 sailors took Tripoli in a handful of days. Another 20,000 troops and a few more days and Italy soon had all the other major cities as well: Benghazi, Derna and Tobruk.
On November 5, only a month later, the Italians declare conquest over Libya. They technically only control the coast but it’s not like there’s much inland anyway.

...One Year Later

But things swiftly moved from a more standard war to one of guerilla resistance. Despite holding the population centers, the Italians couldn’t penetrate even a few kilometers in land. Arab cavalry encircled the cities and attacked any soldier who strayed too far, Libyan civilian volunteers attacked troops digging trenches, Bedouins stage sporadic attacks from the desert. It only took a month for Libya to assert control over the major cities but the guerilla resistance proved fierce, a whole year later Italy was still nowhere near pacifying these sporadic attacks. The Italian troops have increased from 34,000 to 140,000.

The other European Empires had greenlit this specifically because they thought it was gonna take, like, a day, and here we are a year later at stalemate. Feeling a little frantic Italy asks for and receives permission from them to expand the naval fight – in August 1912 they begin attacking the Turkish Dodecanese islands. They begin shelling the forts on the Dardanelles themselves, making to slip on through the straits to the Sea of Marmara and attack Constantinople itself. This leads to the panicked Ottomans to close off the straits entirely, stretch steel chains across the opening, and fill the water with mines.

The Balkan Bananza

Suddenly this pointless colonial war has become an existential threat for the Russian Empire. Half of Russian export trade moved through the Dardanelle Straits and promptly dropped by a third; the straights were also their imports access to the components they needed for their heavy industry, which “nearly ground to a halt.” Their balance of payments felt to zero and they began to convene emergency meetings.

Now, while Russia was the protector and sometimes co-agressor of the Balkan states, it didn’t necessarily want them growing too strong or independently sweeping ~~Tsargard~~ ~~Constantinople~~ Istanbul without Russians there. The current Russian position had been that a weak Ottoman Empire could be preferable to none, but suddenly the dangers of a weak Ottoman empire became extremely real. The Balkan nations had been chomping at the bit to attack the Ottomans while they were distracted in Libya, and Russia would hold them back no longer.

In September Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece declare war on the Ottoman Empire and the first Balkan War has begun. All of the difficulties of the Libyan War, such as carefully and secretly moving their troops though Egypt or the Mediterranean, is now doubly difficult for getting those troops back to the Balkans. Stuck on the other side of Egypt Mustafa Kemal is powerless to help as the Balkans raid his hometown. His rage goes stronger.

Unable to fight both fronts simultaneously, In October, the Ottomans ultimately establish an armistice with the Italians and Libya is signed over.

Italian Aftermath

Italy had established themselves as a serious colonial power and had restored Rome’s rule across the mediterranean, but at what cost? Quite a high one actually, with expenses running in 500% of what was estimated, and lasting way longer than expected. In fact, it didn’t end when the Ottomans signed the Treaty– guerrilla resistance continued and was put down brutally over what we politely call the “punitive pacification campaigns,” which lasted all the way til 1931, a full 20 years after the Italians had declared victory.

The expenses of the Libyan pacification left Italy in a poor financial position when World War 1 actually broke out – not to mention that it still had to commit a significant number of troops to the punitive campaigns. To finance the war effort debt quadrupled to about 180% of GDP by the end of the war. The struggles of managing this debt sent the economy into turmoil, discrediting the ruling liberal government, and helping to pave the way for the fascists, who made renegotiating the debt with the US and UK a priority and established some of their early their credibility by doing just that in 1925.

Libya remained an Italian province until their defeat in World War 2.

The European Aftermath

Italian attempts to foster nationalist movements in the Balkans also caught the ire of the Empire of Austro-hungary, which was especially concerned about nationalism in Greece and Serbia. Relationships between the two nations suffered significantly. Though nominally allies, Italy didn’t inform Austria or Germany of the Libyan invasion before beginning it, and when Austro-Hungary issued its ultimatum to Serbia it did not consult Italy, helping to drive the Italians to the entente.

Furthermore, the balance of power was ultimately massively thrown apart by the dissolution of the Ottomans and the birth of the fractious Balkan nation states, whose conflicts of course eventually set the spark that started the fire of ww1.

To quote the Serbian diplomat Miroslav Spalajković on the events that led to the First World War "all subsequent events are nothing more than the evolution of that first [Italian] aggression."

The Ottoman Aftermath

Throughout all this conflict the Ottoman Empire had been wracked by internal instability. The Libyan war threw gas on the fire of this power struggle which saw a 1912 coup and ended with the Young Turks crushing all of their opposition in 1913. The period following is called the age of the three Pashas, so named after the triumvirate of tyrannical leaders who restored absolutism to the Empire and launched the great genocides.

In fact, from the Libyan War onwards the Ottoman Empire is never not at war – they go straight into the First then Second Balkan Wars, then World War 1, then the Greco-Turkic War which only finally ends in 1922. This eleven year stretch of constant battle has been nicknamed the Ottoman War of Succession, as the Empire splintered apart and spewed forth nation states, until it finally became one itself under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal, who first attained his military prestige in where else but the Libyan war.

Transnational Thursdays 8

6 comments - 1351 thread views 9mo ago by Soriek (text post) Edited 9mo ago

This is a general catch all thread for people who want to talk about international relations or foreign policy. Pretty much anything is welcome, whether people want to give updates from other countries, talk about the Ukraine War or some other current event that’s grabbed your attention, or even just share any interesting books or articles you’ve been reading lately. I like to get the ball rolling with some general coverage of a bunch of countries, including some I think people here will be generally interested in and some people might not already follow too closely.

Spain

Following the ruling Socialist party’s poor May performance in municipal elections, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez dissolved parliament and called new snap elections. Spain will now be heading to the polls on the 23rd amidst a month of heatwaves and flooding.

The center right Popular Party (PP) is currently in the lead, trailed by the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). A PP victory raises the spectre of a coalition with Vox, one of Europe’s newest far right parties, who are currently polling similarly with the far left Sumar, the most likely ally for the PSOE. A conservative victory seems like the most likely outcome but it’s still too soon to say.

Ghana

Ghana recently split its four administrative regions into six. This might not sound like a big deal but the border lines split several ethnic enclaves apart. Despite the fact that these regions don’t actually have self-governance or anything, the divisions ended up being extremely contentious and the security forces had to deployed in the Volta region to deal with growing ethnic unrest.

Senegal

The last few months have been stressful in Senegal, with a high profile sexual assault case disbarring the main opposition leader from running for their upcoming election. All eyes were on current President Macky Sall, to see if he planned on running for an illegal third term. Amid mounting deadly protests he has finally announced that he will actually retire at the end of his term, leaving the field wide open.

Zimbabwe

The ZANU-PF party in Zimbabwe has held power since independence in 1980, with the current President taking power right after Mugabe via a coup and then a fraudulent election. New elections are next month featuring the same opposition candidate as the last one. Unfortunately there are already worrying signs that they won’t be free and fair, with the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change having members arrested and rallies banned.

Various growth reports for Zimbabwe have actually been decent, though inflation is still gonzo high at 175% YoY and Zimbabwe’s government health insurer for federal employees seems to be collapsing due to mismanagement.

Japan

Following Japan reestablishing trade relationships with Korea the previous week, Europe has finally lifted their 2011 post Fukushima restrictions on Japanese food imports. Japan and Ukraine also held a summit in Lithuania Wednesday where Zelensky is expected to further request Kishida’s assistance in rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure. This is a normal role for Japan to fill as they are the second largest aid donor in the world and have quite a bit of infrastructure experience.

CW: sexual violence

There has been a fair amount of public uproar over Japan’s outdated laws on sexual harassment and violence, which has led to a flurry of reforms. They raised penalties for taking nonconsensual sexual photos of someone to up to three years in prison, expanded the definition of assault to require consent (as opposed to physical resistance) and expanded the statute of limitations, and raised the age of consent to 16 from 13, where it has stood since 1907 (it was often higher at the individual prefecture level).

This continues in Abe’s footsteps of making Japan a generally better country for women and is newsworthy on its own, but I also bring it up to show how Japan’s continuously dominant party, the Liberal Democratic Party, has remained in power so long. They’re a big tent party that’s held together by cliques based on personality rather than policy, which allows them to practice a fair amount of policy flexibility to the advantage of draining away popular wedge issues. Basically whenever they hear the opposition find an issue that’s popular with the public they say “actually we’re totally into this idea.” Then they take the lead on passing it to strip away any momentum the opposition would have gotten off of it. Or, if they don’t actually want to pass it, they just say it’s in committee for a while and release various bulletins about their plans. This has the downside of keeping one party entrenched in power (plus some other electoral shenanigans, like if the LDP calls elections only they will know in advance and have been preparing), but has the advantage of keeping the party actually decently responsive to democratic public sentiment.

Turkey

In recent months, Sweden has made efforts to meet Turkey’s demands, amending its Constitution, passing new counterterrorism legislation and agreeing to extradite several Turks who stand accused of crimes in Turkey. But Swedish courts have blocked other extraditions, and Swedish officials have said that they cannot override their country’s free-speech protections.

Turkey was in rare form this week, throwing another wrench in the Swedish NATO ascension process by bringing up a new demand to greenlight Sweden: that Turkey be allowed to join the EU. Turkey having made almost no progress on their EU ascension goals meant this could only happen if the EU waived nearly all of their normal requirements. The US replied that it supported Turkey’s “aspirations”.

Turkey has finally relented, seemingly, after negotiations that are not yet fully clear, and Sweden will be joining NATO.

Erdogan will also meet soon with Putin over the grain deal from last year, which is set to expire next week. Russia has expressed unwillingness to extend the deal, which could throw another crisis situation wide open if the world loses access to Ukraine’s grain exports (“the U.N. argues that it has benefited those [developing world] states by helping lower food prices by more than 20% globally”).

Due to Turkey’s negotiating leverage here and with Sweden they’ve gained themselves quite a bit of influence, if not much in the way of good will. Erdogan will be visiting the Gulf later this month, where he has also been building alliances, particularly with Qatar.

Colombia

The recently concluded ceasefire between the government and the rebel group ELN has finally come into effect, with both the rebels and the armed forces halting attacks. Ideally it is supposed to last six months, which would be the longest period of peace since the 60s. This is a major victory for Colombia and for President Gustavo Petro, whose administration thus far has been wracked by corruption scandals and stillwater reforms. They are now separately entering into negotiations with the much smaller conflict with a faction of FARC that rejected the last peace agreement.

A new legislative session will start soon and he plans to re-submit his pension and labor reforms laws. The Finance Ministry has also released their new budget with some ambitious spending raises which critics say might exceed budgetary rules Colombia has in place to reduce their deficits. The Central Bank has held steady on interest rates this month and is anticipated to begin to cut them soon as inflation recovers.

Brazil

Lula looks to be on his way to pass a major consumption tax reform that previous administrations have failed on. It remains to be seen if it can pass the Senate but even a surprising amount of conservative law makers voted in favor. Lula has successfully continued his campaign to replace the Central Bank governors with his allies in hopes of driving them towards interest rate cuts, and also successfully elevated his personal lawyer to the Supreme Court.

At the recent Mercosur summit he pushed for Bolivia’s ascension and for “the Mercosur trade bloc to advance in talks for deals with Canada, South Korea and Singapore, while aiming to increase commerce with other countries in Latin America and Asia…In addition to those three nations, Lula said, Mercosur could also "explore new negotiation fronts" with China, Indonesia, Vietnam and countries in Central America and the Caribbean. The Brazilian leader reaffirmed he is committed to completing the trade agreement struck in 2019 between the bloc and the European Union, but again called some addenda proposed by EU 'unacceptable'."

Guatemala

In excellent headlines today we have “Top tribunal certifies Guatemala’s election result minutes after another court suspends party”.

Guatemala’s Supreme Court has given the thumbs up to the first round of elections but the Attorney General has now suspended the anti-corruption underdog Bernardo Arévalo. As best as I can tell, their constitution forbids suspending a candidate mid-election.

Thailand

Thanks to @cake for the breaking news update, Thailand's underdog progressive candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, has been blocked from the office of the Prime Minister by the military-appointed senate.

Transnational Thursdays 7

30 comments - 1667 thread views 9mo ago by Soriek (text post)

Turning this into its own weekly thread. I’m hoping for this not to really be a thing I lead,, more like an open place each week where people can talk foreign policy/international relations. That could mean country updates, analysis of some dynamic (ie the Ukraine War), or even history or interesting books you’re reading.

The response on these have been positive but engagement has been pretty low, I think partially because a lot of the countries I find interesting just aren’t that interesting to other people. I’m trying to address that by finding a balance between the more obscure places I like with bigger name countries like Brazil, Italy, Korea, etc. As always others are strongly encouraged to add on coverage of any country you find interesting, or just anything else you want to talk about.

Guatemala

As mentioned last week, the electoral success of anti-corruption underdog Bernardo Arevalo, son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected leader, represented a major upset. Currently he’s supposed to go into a runoff election with Sandra Torres in August, but the latter has accused voting software of biasing Arevalo. The establishment has responded cheerfully and the courts have suspended the results of the first round of the election and called for a tribunal to review the voting tallies. The US, EU, and OAS election observers have criticized the court’s decision. Regardless of the Presidential results, the current conservative ruling party Vamos has surprised everyone by winning a majority, so there’s a limit to how much an isolated executive will accomplish.

Brazil

Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has banned Bolsonaro from running for office again for eight years by the for fueling the January 8 uprising:

Brazil’s electoral court ruled that Mr. Bolsonaro had violated Brazil’s election laws when, less than three months ahead of last year’s vote, he called diplomats to the presidential palace and made baseless claims that the nation’s voting systems were likely to be rigged against him.

Five of the court's seven judges voted that Mr. Bolsonaro had abused his power as president when he convened the meeting with diplomats and broadcast it on state television.

He can appeal the ruling but hasn’t made a lot of friends in the high courts and as of now he has accepted the ruling.

Venezuela

While we’re on a roll with candidates being pushed out by their systems, María Corina Machado, the favorite to lead the opposition in the 2024 elections, has been banned from running for 15 years. The charges are based on her being a fifth column for the US, supporting American sanctions and former opposition leader Juan Guaidó. All true, but also nobody expects Maduro to allow a free and fair election under any circumstances:

“If you want free elections, we want sanctions-free elections. Therein lies the dilemma”

Speaking of sanctions, oil production has actually risen recently in spite of them, though much of the gains have gone up in smoke from corruption and crime, with everything from fuel theft to an audit finding that middle men have pocketed an astounding $21 billion in unpaid sales. Partially in light of these finding and PDVSA’s significant debt to its Russian partner, Roszarubezhneft, the European oil magnate has now requested the ability to take control of joint exports itself to avoid massive middle men losses.

At least negotiations over sanctions and the election have resumed, with Venezuela and America resuming direct communications in Qatar, a nation which has unexpectedly come to play the recent role of mediator between the two rival countries.

Italy

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right wing coalition has continued a year of electoral success with victories in the longtime center-left stronghold of Tuscany.

The Eurozone Stability Fund was created in 2012 to provide “eurozone states in difficulty with loans at below-market rates in return for reforms to public finances”. It’s been suspended since the pandemic but its latest iteration is near to passing. However, it requires the approval of every member and Italy remains the last stalwart not having voted for it yet. Italy would actually qualify to use it but Meloni has pledged not to, because she’s afraid of having austerity imposed upon Italy, although the Italian Treasury apparently thinks it might actually lower debt costs.

One way or the other Italy’s enormous 145% debt to GDP ration must be addressed. Bloomberg has an interesting article on Meloni’s turn towards a more industrial policy, increasingly intervening in the corporations the government has a stake in, or buying larger stakes. She’s betting on her pro-business policies getting the Italian economy back on its feet; in particular she cut corporate taxes, taxes on the self employed, and taxes on the rich by phasing in a flat tax on labor. She's partially offset the loss in revenue by cutting benefits, in particular an anti-poverty measure called the Citizen’s Income (remember southern Italy still has exceptionally high poverty for a European country). She also gave employers more flexibility in hiring short term contracts and has strictly opposed public sector unions demands for wage increases. Predictably, this hasn’t made her many friends in the unions, who have been consistently on and off strike (it should be said Italy has more strikes than a normal country in the best of times). Actually there’s another major strike happening tomorrow, a 24 hour nationwide strike tomorrow of all public transit workers, bus, metro, ferry, and even airline staff.

Kosovo

In April Kosovar Serbians boycotted municipal elections, which were then won by Albanian candidates who tried to install their candidates by force, leading to ethnic violence and dozens of injuries. By now 4000 NATO Peace Keepers have entered Kosovo to stave off the rising ethnic tensions. Serbia’s troops are currently mobilized on the border and they have now threatened to militarily intervene if ethnic Serbs aren’t protected from Albanian violence.

South Africa

Seven opposition parties, led by the Democratic Alliance and excluding the radical EFF, have formed a big tent coalition to challenge the African National Congress in the 2024 legislative elections. Popularity with the governing party is at (probably) an all time low with crime, a faltering economy, and mass electricity shortages.

Speaking of which, South Africa’s power grid has been wracked by mass corruption, and instability and load shedding has become a norm this past year. However, blackouts have been reducing recently and surprisingly, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has said the period of electricity cuts will soon come to a close.

In a contentious case with shades of the America dreamer debate, South African high courts have ruled against the government’s attempt to end the special permitting exemptions for Zimbabweans who fled instability at home. This would require some 200,000 people to return to Zimbabwe if they can’t obtain normal work permits, even if they have had children in South Africa.

Thailand

Eyes are peeled on Thailand as the new parliament has come into session. The major victors of the election, the anti-military, anti-monarchical Move Forward and Pheu Thai, now have the unenviable task of creating a coalition big enough to form a government. This is harder than it might sound because a third of seats are automatically given to the military, and the two upsetters have campaigned on an anti-establishment platforms that made some of their more establishment potential allies understandably skeptical (ex they want to “abolish monopolies,” aka make enemies with every business interest).

For now the two parties have managed to at least work with each other; there was some tension over which party gets to pick the new Speaker of the House but ultimately they settled on a respected Pheu Thai ally from a third party. The real question is who would be the Prime Minister if they can form a coalition. The military’s motivation is to prevent Move Forward’s leader Pita Limjaroenrat from winning at all costs; they might even accept being pushed into the minority if they could avoid that situation. They’re already investigating him to see if he broke election laws and will likely pursue other tricks as well.

Korea

President Yoon Suk-Yeol ran on a comically anti-labor agenda, once quipping that they should replace the 52 hour work week with a 120 hour work week. Since coming to power he’s pushed for and backed away from a 69 hour work week (this is probably much closer to what South Koreans actually do) and has pursued the unions doggedly, attempting to standardize professional requirements, refusing to extend a minimum wage increase, and demanding that labor unions submit their records of spending. In response to his labor agenda the Korean Confederation of Teachers Union (KCTU) has gone on strike (and separately they’re mad about Japan discharging Fukushima waste water into the open ocean). It’s pretty massive in size, a two week strike of over half a million people; this last time a smaller strike happened it led to notable fuel shortages.

Separately (or related?) President Yoon’s popularity has hit a high of 42%, mostly to his restoration of trade ties with Japan and public posture against the “cartels” (Suk-Yeol pursued some of leading Chaebol businessman during his time as a prosecutor, but it remains unclear if he will actually oppose them significantly in office.)

Your Book Review: Public Citizens

1 comments - 625 thread views 9mo ago by Soriek (astralcodexten.substack.com)

I've been enjoying this year's ACX book reviews a lot more than the previous round, with cool essays on the Icelandic Sagas and Jane Jacobs. I particularly liked last week's review of "Public Citizens: The Attack on Big Government and the Remaking of American Liberalism" by Paul Sabin. The book is about Ralph Nader's contribution to modern sclerosis in the American government, but the essay serves as an interesting history of the public interest movement in relation to the government in general. It's not long and definitely worth a read but a few sections I liked:

the New Deal relied heavily on a new model for delegating congressional powers: Congress would create a federal agency with broad latitude, then they, or the president, would staff that agency with outside experts. Freed from the grubby pressures of the political process, these agency men—and they were pretty much all men—would use their expertise to reshape the country...

In his 1952 book American Capitalism, John Kenneth Galbraith summed up this equilibrium via the concept of countervailing powers: big government, big business, and the big unions worked together to collaboratively manage the economy.

But by the 1960s, the cracks in this model were starting to show. A report prepared for President-elect Kennedy outlined the problem of regulatory capture, the process by which agencies intended to regulate private businesses got too close to their subjects and end up serving them instead. And a new class of liberal intellectuals rose to prominence by pointing out the ways in which the political establishment’s plans sometimes rode roughshod over the citizens they were supposed to serve.

The new intellectual class was deeply critical of government action, especially the ways it propped up big business, and they invested a ton of energy into criticizing, investigating, and suing the government. The non-profit wasn't really a thing before Nader, now it's some 10% of the private sector. Advocacy on behalf of Nader and associates dramatically expanded public comment periods on agency actions, "gave the agencies they created extremely detailed mandates, procedures, and timelines .... required judicial review of agency decisions, and explicitly empowered citizens to sue the agencies for not following the rules. (Previously, it wasn’t clear that a random individual American would have standing in such a case.)"

These ideas were intended to prevent bureaucrats from cravenly serving big business or from crushing the citizenry with their major projects, but of course they made it hard to implement major projects at all. Government slowed to a crawl, and of course money-flush big businesses found themselves better able to afford dealing with all the new regulations, and better able to make use of judicial review and comment periods. All this has led us to our kludgocracy where:

Across the country, NIMBYs and status-quo defenders exploit procedural rules to block new development, giving us a world where it takes longer to get approval for a single new building in San Francisco than it did to build the entire Empire State Building, where so-called “environmental review” is weaponized to block even obviously green initiatives like solar panels, and where new public works projects are completed years late and billions over budget—or, like California’s incredible shrinking high-speed rail, may never be completed at all.

There are strong shades of the kind of supply-side progressivism talked about by Ezra Klein, Matthew Yglesias, and Noah Smith, that holds we have overcorrected from the era of Robert Moses running highways through helpless neighborhoods to a world where its impossible to do anything big at all or for the government to effectively serve its people. The problem is broader now, the liberal desire not just for lengthy review but expanding government without holding it to clear standards; the conservative impulse to cut budgets regardless of efficacy or to saddle troublesome agencies with oversight bodies that save no money but slow activity down to a crawl; the seemingly bipartisan willingness to allow technical skill to corrode in the government and contract everything out to dubiously useful and vastly more expensive consultants. But it's interesting to hear one version of the story of where this general anti-government movement began and really took traction. Interested to hear what other people thought of it.

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Your Book Review: Public Citizens