VoiceOfLogic
I happen to be, unfortunately, the first human super-intelligence.
What a sad tragedy to see what others can't see.
User ID: 1999
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
I've seen people who don't internally verbalize claim they think faster than those who do. I can't say I agree to such a claim, I've never felt my chain of thoughts slow me down.
The word you're looking for is subvocalize.
There is at least one instance of one-subvocalization being faster that everyone can easily experience, try to learn how to do spead reading aka reading multiple adjacents words at once.
With enough practice you end up stopping subvocalization as it is a speed bottleneck. However, it is a very underresearched topic, it's possible non subvocalization has cognitive impacts such as altered memorizations performance, creative process and or ability to detect logical fallacies.
The more interesting question is that apparently many humans do not subvocalize (think symbolically) on average, which would impact many philosophical and computer science questions.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
there aren’t secret super elite conversations that are way more advanced or complex than ones we have here out there
I beg to differ I think the motte can be disrupted, I intend to write a blog about it.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Username checks out :)
The death of GOFAI is a tragedy, however humans also mostly learn by mimetism however they build a model of reality based on mimetics insights and that, a neural network cannot reliably.
However, while I still believe chatgpt is a data illusion, for the first time in my life I fail to explain the illusion as chatgpt is able to do things reliably that goes far beyong an ability to flexibly scrap existing datasets.
The other tragedy is that neural networks based on precise emulation of the architecture of an animal brain are completely non-funded and conversely the funding on retro-engineering of simple animal brains is of close to zero. We are very close to a full observability and mapping of the c-elegans brain, however nobodys working on the remaining gaps (e.g. GABA neurons). As I have disocovered in my life, almost all key blockers to scientific disruption share a similar issue: nobody's working on them. Nobody's funding them.
Hence when people forecast AGI progress on metaculus, they systematically fail to understand that the forecast is not a number of pending years but the infinity of time.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Feel free to talk to me, I have erudition and curiosity in all those topics, especially medical science.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
America is diseased, rotten to the core.
Zelensky to run for re-election? What elections are we talking about, 90% of the parties have been banned
Martial law in Ukraine was declared on 24 February 2022. On 15 March 2022 the Parliament deprived Opposition MP Illia Kyva of his mandate.[9]
On 20 March 2022, several political parties were suspended by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine for the period of martial law:[10][11]
Opposition Platform — For Life
Derzhava
Left Opposition
Nashi
Opposition Bloc
Party of Shariy
Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine
Socialist Party of Ukraine
Socialists
Union of Left Forces
Volodymyr Saldo Bloc
The property of the party and all its branches were transferred to the state.[13] The decision was open to appeal at the Supreme Court of Ukraine within 20 days.[13] At the time Opposition Platform – For Life was one of two of the 20 March 2022 suspended parties that was subject to an attempt of getting banned in court, Opposition Platform – For Life was the only party to defend and participate in the case.[13] (The other party was the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine.[67]) On 15 September 2022 the final appeal against the party's ban was dismissed by the Supreme Court of Ukraine, meaning that the party was fully banned in Ukraine.[14]
Ukraine judiciary system is utterly broken and has become among other things, an active puppet of the U.S, see for example this fascinating video from Joe Biden, you'd believe it's too big and blatant to be true but no the man even brag about it, so potent!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=azLKK0xTOFI
Let's not forget "fuck EU" or the fact Biden personally said the night of the sponsored coup, to Yanukovich on the phone that it was over and he would get killed if he didn't flee to Russia.
a to justify counter-corruption purges of the Ukrainian government.
Zelensky actively promoted the maintenance of the corruption by recently appointing a corrupt person at the top of the top anti-corruption organism of Ukraine.
IMHO It's hard to know what is the moral compass of Zelensky but he is at best utterly powerless.
Zelensky was elected for promising peace in the donbas but he quickly learnt the hardway that he was not the man in commands, it is the military that ruled and still rules Ukraine https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6652
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SIaTAnhgMT4
I expect NATO weapon shipments to hit a qualitative and quantitative critical mass by late 2023 that makes Ukraine favored in the early 2024
What kind of delusion is that? Even with the west support it will slow down but not at all reverse the attrition losses.
This will not favor Ukraine, whatever that means, Ukraine because of the extreme non-linearity of the effect of attrition losses on defense capabilities, should and will stay in a defensive position with a goal of 1) reducing hardware losses and 2) slowing down russia territorial expansion, in that order of priority.
Most of their tank/IFV/aircrafts/and anti-air (S300s) budget has been spent and we have no signal they have factories running making new hardware, IIRC the T80 factories are located in Kharkiv, too close to the front.
While russia also suffer from attrition, their existing reserves being considerably larger, they will obviously win this attritive war, unless the U.S sends tanks in the thousands at a minimum.
That's for the quantitative argument, as for the qualitative one, I have extensively debunked this ego-boosting myth in many of my past comments.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Then you suffer from a very potent information exposure black hole, thankfully you can see the other side of the coin on https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport
example of great footage probably downvoted to hell and therefore hidden on combatfootage
IMO that's a very great footage to contemplate how inept war performance is in the real world.
(not saying that Ukraine soldiers are more inept than russian ones, but that all are, confused, maximizing their survival and fake firing in the general direction) This observation has major implications.
but this subreddit most potent usefulness is not showing ukrainian losses but that it allows to be much more informed about issues in Ukraine, including human rights abuses, accounts of government corruption, etc.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
People as usual wildly overestimate this AI abilities.
Just ask chatgpt "I believe 12 cannot be divided by 4" and realize how inept it is.
Nothing has fundamentally changed, chatgpt is at the end of the day, just a dumb transformer that bruteforce contingent correlates to predict the most likely next token in a sentence.
It is an innovative but lossy way to extract info from existing datasets and as such can be seen as a competitor to scrappers.
However it has no causal understanding per se or if it has, it is messy and by accident.
Neural networks are approximate, inefficient and most importantly cannot do continual learning and are therefore the peak irony of our century, they are a local minima in the research on how to beat local minimas.
Finally someone on a tribe topic that can answer one of my comments through curiosity and truth-seeking driven questions rather than baseless denial and non-constructiveness.
peak maximally useful military machines are generally from the 70s + a few cheap modernisations on top such as a 1 dollar gps/glonas chip
Are you actually serious about this? Or is it some joke?
I am very serious about this, I have studied most of the Soviet hardware that exists.
Or is it "effectiveness over resources, assuming that soldiers and their training costs nothing"?
? I did not factor training costs much in my analysis but that's not the salient part and anyway training costs and training time (incapaciting inertia) have allegedly massively got up with modern (90s+) hardware especially ineptly for the F-35 and for the Abrams (22 weeks for a tank! although most of it is probably actually unecessary).
The russians tanks brought autoloaders which reduce by 1/5 the number of soldiers needed to operate them but that is only a marginal optimization.
effectiveness over resources
Yes as you've seen I am mentioning economics but not only.
Are you claiming that it applies to such types of military machines as planes, satellites, night vision, AWACS, drones and communication gear?
It applies mostly for the main two salient categories, aircrafts and tanks.
satellites, night vision, AWACS, drones and communication gear
Of course not but those are cheaps and have all mostly plateaued regarding metrics. About AWACS/radars there are still advances needed towards exploiting anti-stealth loopholes but that is a "niche" topic.
For what your claim applies? Definitely not for static machine guns (here peak is earlier), maybe for standard issue riffles. Anything else?
static machine guns
well considering Ukraine is successfully using the Maxim gun from 1884, that can be a valid point.
Little known fact is that USSR has superior machine guns because of a trivial technology, they are propelled by gaz instead of electric cable, that imply that they are transportable instead of fixed, but the main usefulness is that they start to spin and are ready to fire faster. However as with most modern weapons (my salient point) that is only a very marginal optimization that supposedly does'nt make much of a difference.
maybe for standard issue riffles
yes
So about tanks:
The T-72-B3 (from the 70s) are great tanks with an effective shielding, an autoloader which abrams lacks and a larger gun than the abrams too. BTW kinda ridiculous that Abrams lacks explosive reactive armor, which modernized T-72 are getting. However the competition on shielding and gun size has become mostly useless for most purposes, it is trivial to understand that the shielding coverage of a tank only cover specific parts, especially: the gun has zero protection, the turret is a weak point and a tank is useless without a working continuous track. Even on the parts covered with large shielding, it is generally ineffective against an ATGM.
Therefore gun and shielding have reached extreme diminishing returns. However a T-72 cost 5 to 10 times less than a T-90M/Abrams.
That makes T-72 extremely superiors to modern tanks as with the same money and closely comparable effectiveness/survivability (low in both cases) and I can assure you 10000 T-72B3 would destroy 1000 Abrams/T-90M both psychologically and effectively.
It is essential to understand that because the U.S and to a lesser but significant extent Russia fails to realize the plateauing and the non-linearity of economic costs, those countries are actively becoming weaker and weaker militarily.
The T-14 armata is a clever optimization (unmaned turret but with less shielding...) but is probably less effective than a T-90-M if I understand correctly, as while it improves humans survivability, it lowers the tank survivability, which is inept.
About anti-air:
By far the most important anti-air hardware is the S-300 (IIRC the partiots are largely inferior) from the end of the 70s. The S-400 is simply not cost effective and therefore mostly a failure.
about aircrafts:
The same goes on and even more potently,
The SU-25/27 (70s) cost approximately 10 times less than the F-35 while having 2 to 3 times larger payload and almost twice faster max speed. Of course the F-35 is stealth but with its prohibitive cost, stealth paint maintenance, very small payload, probably doable stealth loopholes (SU 27 have IRST https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared_search_and_track, SU-35 have L bands radars, etc.. or simply optics)
The SU-75 is an interesting development regarding costs but still very high https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-75_Checkmate
The F-35 even has a x band signature, with some machine learning/hardcoded recognition software, given its static structure, I'd bet even without said loophole it is very much doable to make its stealthless useless. Besides, it becomes detectable as soon as it deploy its weapons.
But the best way to take down a F-35 would be to deploy 1 0 0 0 0 0 loitering drones at 1000 dollars piece, after all that's exactly the cost of an F-35 and they are as much optically visible and loud as your regular aircraft.
For those reasons investing in a large army of SU-25/27 is much less risky than a few F-35 with probably soon to be broken stealthness, however given the extreme sucess of S-300 and other SOTA anti-air, one should be lucid and understand that the SU-25/27 are also obsolete and that we should mostly return to extremely cheap turboprop WW-2 style aircrafts.
Such planes can be made to have modern variants optimized for cost at aproximately between 0.1 to 1 million dollars, therefore costing less than the modern anti air missiles and having increased maneuvrability/reusable weapons vs drones.
Both drones and those planes very ironically are said to be stealth for X-rays, as they can fly low, fly "slowly" and are more stealth than F-35 X ray only stealth, as they have smaller hitboxes and low thermal signature (against ISRT). The same way birds are actually stealth.
Thus they could ironically have increased survivability against S-300 and ATGMs vs the SU-25/27, but most importantly they are so cheap they can be replenished quickly and do psychological and tactical swarm.
In that regard, at a 1000 vs 1 ratio, it is plausible that aircrafts have peaked in the 50s.
Moreover, those planes could have even better stealthness and dramatically reduced cost by making them out of wood, like many of the very sucessfull WW2 USSR airplanes.
It is important to realize though that those planes should still be modernized variants regarding avionics/radars. And that air to air missiles have not peaked in the 70s, and despite the significant cost increase putting very long range missiles on those remarkably cheap planes can be very worthwile and is trivial.
Another thing to realize is that turboprop planes can be quite fast actually, if made with contra-rotating propellers, a technology that has only seen the light after turboprops were no longer trendy see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-95
What I believe the most in though would be drones with guns such as https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-drone-that-can-fire-a-sniper-rifle-while-flying-developed-2022-1?r=US&IR=T
In fact it is doable and has been done to design hardware and software stabilizers for guns on drones.
Guns are disruptively superior to missiles since you can only have a very small amount of missiles on a drone but can have a lot of gun ammo.
Add to that the cheap cost of a swarm of 10000000 of those drones and you supposedly insta-win a war.
To understand that properly, one has to observe a few things:
- war performance is autistic. Nothing like on the movies, humans are rightfully afraid of dying thus they are not actively focusing on killing others but on intimidating others and reducing their exposure. People with guns, aircrafts, helicopters, it doesn't matter it's all the same, haven't you realized it yet? They all do fake shots in the background.
A couple of periodic rounds/fire all day long in a given vague angular direction. It maintains the enemy at bay but to precisely aim at others needs to expose yourself to too much risk. Therefore the reality of war is mostly dumb firing at nothing.
This disruptively change with a drone with a gun, a currently non-existent concept in ukraine. Because the drone operator mostly don't care if the cheap drone is destructed. Most videos of drones are autistic to watch, they really take their time to drop one little grenade unacurately that might kill one guy and gone is the payload the drone needs to be refueled.. despite soldiers being AFK and completely unaware their is a drone right above their heads.
With a gun and a stabilizer, you can multiply the number of kills per drone by 10X-100X, especially compounding the innovative psychological terror.
All my points, the extreme diminishing returns of military performance metrics of most hardware classes, the extreme non-linear increase in cost, and low industrial production capabilities and the superiority of cheap swarming and of non-human fear impaired aiming, each of those individual 4 points are basic and are enough to disrupt the effectiveness of military powers.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
I don't think there is any possible kind/good faith interpretation to your question.
It just doesn't make sense and yet it was upvoted by 5 readers..
It should be painfully obvious that economic power is mostly hortogonal to military power, while there is some correlation it is obviously contingent.
It should be universally known and was explicited by one of my comments that China like the rest of the non western world was late regarding the industrial revolution, the design of war/killing machines and the use of powder/guns (which is ironic since Europeans originally imported that tech from China)
I didn't think it was useful to explain those things and why the west was able to militarily dominate the rest of the world.
Also the wars on china were a worldwide coalition of coercive powers, including Russia, the British empire, the French, and the U.S
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Russian demands currently include destroying Ukrainian nation
I'm pretty sure if Ukraine willingly gave the rest of the donbass, made public statements about becoming neutral towards the russian culture and interests, including allowing russian to be taught again in schools, russia would make peace.
The issue with the dehumanization of the orcs and with the tribal manicheanization of russian interests that the western media and people parrot is that despite having some elements of truths, overall obviously leads to a criminal utilitarian disaster of continued intense human lives and economic attrition.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
You might be interested to read my analysis regarding optimal military hardware composition https://www.themotte.org/post/317/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/56897?context=8#context
So 5x and 2.4x. Which, while not as crazy as multiple of the typical orders of magnitude is still a pretty extreme military advantage.
Right it's not multiple order of magnitudes per se currently, but semantically they are not on the same scale which is my point.
However the multiple order of magnitudes could already be true through attrition,
if we suppose for example that Ukraine has lost 2000 tanks and still has 500, and make no asymetric assumption and therefore suppose ukraine ha lost 2000 tanks and therefore still has 10,500,
10500 / 500 == 21X so one order of magnitude of difference
now the attrition continues 1 year later,
10100 / 100 == 101X, 2 order of magnitudes, see the argument?
still a pretty extreme military advantage
adds to that, that russian tanks are more moderns than the Ukraine ones
and that on frozen fronts like bakhmut or all of the last months, the offender has a major attrition advantage supposedly since Russia has 100X more artillery (let alone precision missiles, and drone superiority)
off topic but I find it kinda weird they didn't manage to make Ukraine army totally incapacited by banning their access to GLONAS.
People also fail to realize that Ukraine has better military hardware than France, UK and germany quality wise.
But quantity wise the difference is beyond crazy, the ignorance of the layman is so strong, France has 200 tanks, UK has 300 tanks
Tank wise, Ukraine could have invaded France and UK 10 times each. 10 France
Ukraine has possibly the best anti-air on earth, etc..
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
You seriously believe Russia will run out of tanks before Ukraine?
I'd love to know where you read that, because it wasn't in my post.
You are very clearly implying that,
The TL;DR is that Ukraine has burned through
You answered originally about a statement that Ukraine is suffering major hardware attrition (implied including tanks)
if this is the level of analysis on offer, it's beyond worthless.
The fact that Ukraine will loose the war abruptly (even non-linearly) is trivial and will happen when they e.g. mostly run out of tanks.
This analysis while simple is not worthless but quite obvious and potent and also at this rate will happen in less than 2 years.
Russia too has "burned through" much of their advanced equipment
Your "too" make it seems as if the losses are proportionately comparable, they're largely not since russia has much more reserves, and not just 1960s stuff. Besides contrary to popular belief 60s tanks are still effective. In most cases even modern shielding is insufficent against an ATGMs and therefore useless. It's more a number game.
- This is not an indication that anyone is "winning" or "losing"
Russia is winning the attrition war even though at great losses, and therefore it is an indication that russia will win (if western countries do not send massive amounts of tanks)
So yes you clearly implied that Russia will not win the attrition war.
the purity thinking that modern military machines transcend the old ones is very common and childish.
Once again, you're reading things I didn't write.
You said that idea in a mild form and it is the default mental belief in online forums:
mothballed shit from the '50s and '60s. Of course Ukraine wants good weapons, rather than the outdated military
The difference in effectiveness is extremely overatted however my argument mostly stand for the 70s, less so for the 50/60s but still stands.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
So what the worlwide coalition in the gulf war managed to destroy Irak air defense quickly and that allows you to generalize from a single event to the U.S having a power that make it transcend Russia performance in Ukraine? What is this imaginary magic technology they have that disrupt their abilties? None, you are just wishful thinkingly over-generalizing.
I have not extensively studied Irak military but:
-
They had osbolete air-defense, zero S-300..
-
I have heard that the Irakis aircrafts pilots universally refused to fly, no will to fight what a joke
“When United States and coalition forces invaded Iraq in 2003 [during Operation Iraqi Freedom], they faced no Iraqi Air Force opposition. Not one Iraqi warplane attacked the invaders as they proceeded toward Baghdad,” Daniel L. Haulman, PhD Air Force Historical Research Agency.
It seems they didn't use air force significantly in gulf war either.
- probably not enough modern ATGMs and probably no GLONAS/GPS
So Irak air defense and will to fight was basically in practice a joke, not something comparable to Ukraine in any realistic way.
Note though that during the Vietnam war, North Vietnam even with virtually no air force managed to take down a crazy high number of U.S planes: 8,540 + 1,351 allied
Nato could turn Russia into a parkinglot in a couple weeks.
A groundless childish fiction based on a weak and uncomparable single event with zero a priori argument, the only one would be the 100 million dollars "stealth" F-35 on which I call bullshit as being not enough to disrupt a war especially considering their weak payloads, maintenance burden and vast detectability loopholes. Besides that point U.S and russian hardware are largely comparable in most cases.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
I'd even go further, if someone hasn't yet had issues with censorship/moderation on reddit, it is an heuristic that this person is not very mentally active/a free thinker.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Quite beautifully written comment :}
Would you happen to live in France? If so maybe we could meet IRL as fellow rationalists!
Personally I think russophobia, sinophobia and their dehumanizations are here to stay and existed throughout the last century.
In fact I don't see the propaganda machine turning on other civilizations, Russia and China are and will continue to be, increasingly so, the main threats to U.S hegemony.
Now a large part or maybe even most of Ukrainians and Russians hate each other
I don't think we know that. Even though population opinions should be observable in real time over the internet, in reality they're not for those countries.
I suppose that the majority of people on echo chamber subreddits like /r/ukraina are either non Ukrainian or are for the most part, Ukrainian not living in Ukraine.
The chronology of events that led to the coup and to the war is quite simple and a human living in Ukraine should be able to understand the major responsibility of the "west" and of the trivially undemocratic governments post 2014.
They have among other things seen by themselves the unilateral censorship.
I suppose most Ukrainian cannot say what they truly think without fear of going to jail.
However one should not underestimate the potent power of repeated unilateral propaganda and pressure on the layman's mind and it's possible the cognitive dissonance has become so strong that they truly developed for the majority, spoonfed russophobia despite their knowledge of the events chain.
saying a lot of dumb stuff yourself
Please exemplify you have shown none.
Did I approve Mao policy choices?
No.
The state of this discussion on the motte is very worrying epistemologically.
You are thinking of me as an imaginary strawman with imaginary claims.
This is beyond absurd, this thread is fictional.
I bet the "lot of dumb stuff" is the imaginary strawman of approving Mao decisions.
I could analyze (not defend) the reasoning behind the killing of the four pests, which wanted to reduce the significant amount of wasted food. It backfired for sparrows unfortunately, it was a task done too fast and with too little risk aversion/metrology and was a factor in the great famine, among drought/natural causes and the reallocation of some farmers to working in the steel industry to increase the country GDP and attempt to put it out of extreme misery.
The human errors and the natural disaster cofactors of the great Chinese famine needs not to be analyzed.
You are completely missing the outstanding efficiency of my argumentation.
The Great Chinese famine was a temporary reduction of crop yields by 15%, up to a very short lived 30% reduction at its peak.
Do you understand this is a small effect?
My initial claim is: who bears the main (and sufficent) responsability for the great Chinese famine.
Non-malicious human errors + drought that led to a short-lived 15-30% reduction in crop yields or the West voluntary ban of technology and of fertilizers on China since decades and for decades?
Is it hard to understand that fertilizers have effects on crop yields much superior to 30% and probably above 100%?
Is it hard to understand modal logic and that the criminal, coercive fertilizer ban is a logically sufficient cause that would have totally prevented the Great Chinese Famine?
The exact same thing apply for the ban on machines to increase yields, and the ban on food exports.
No, basic modal logic is not hard to understand.
The motte community is here being very dysfunctional and that is very worrying regarding its epistemic quality.
Another thing to observe:
The great Chinese famine should not hide the potent fact that millions were dying of food hunger consistently in the years/decade preceding it. No need for the great leap forward for that.
The trade embargo was sufficient
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
What is interesting with those brows is that it is not in fact a feminine feature but a masculine one. Few people understand that the modern artificially enhanced woman has in fact an androgynous face to such remarkable extent that some of their features become more masculine than men themselves.
[Neural networks] are a local minima in the research on how to beat local minimas.
Could you expand what you mean by this? I'd think neural networks would be a local maximum.
Minimum, maximum, it doesn't matter to understand the metaphor.
A neural network through gradient descent generally want to find the global minimum of an error function and therefore maximize predictions accuracy.
It could instead search for a global maximum to the inverse of an error function or to another type of function, but the distinction is irrelevant here.
Gradient descent often fail to find the global minimum and instead because it descent/jump through derivates it can be stuck in a local minima, which simply means that it has reached a minima on a function curve and at this point, it needs to go upwards to go beyond the minima, therefore it temporarily afford to perform worse, to increase the error rate, in hope to find a new descent on the curve that will be lower than the previous minima
Not being stuck in local minima is the #1 metric to improve deep learning algorithms and while there are many optimizations towards this goal it is not computationally doable with current algorithms to have optimal learning aka reach the global minima.
So now we understand
the research on how to beat local minimas == neural networks.
now let's understand
[Neural networks] are a local minima
They are a local minima because Neural networks are fundamentally unfit towards AGI needs.
They are just a vomit of bruteforced contingent correlates and it works surprisingly well but it is inefficient, makes poor contingent amalgamations inherently,
have no causal reasoning abilities, are stateless and cannot do continual learning AKA they can't learn new info in real time without the so called catastrophic forgetting.
For those reasons, they are by design suboptimals and therefore are a local minima in which the world is stuck, in the goal of beating local minimas.
Now we are in another period of rapid advancement.
No offence, but it's really striking to see that the rationalist diaspora people live in an alternate reality based on groundless hype and a fundamental lack of methodology, or should I dare say, lack of rationality.
We are in a winter since 2019 or since the 90s depending on what we look at.
What does the average lesswronger or redditor look at?
He looks at cool demos. Or even more than demos, cool domain specific disrutpive applications.
That is what stablediffusion and chatgpt are.
They are indeed very impressive for what they do but at the end of the day that is irrelevant towards the natural language understanding goal.
someome with methodology should instead look at the precise tasks required towards true NLU or even AGI.
POS tagging:
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/part-of-speech-tagging-on-penn-treebank
dependency parsing:
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/dependency-parsing-on-penn-treebank
coreference resolution
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/coreference-resolution-on-ontonotes
word sense disambiguation
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/word-sense-disambiguation-on-supervised
named entity recognition
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/named-entity-recognition-ner-on-conll-2003
semantic parsing
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-parsing-on-amr-english-mrp-2020
Only to name a few, all of them are needed concomitantly, and that is by far non-exhaustive.
Once you undestand that the error rate is often per word/token instead of per sentence, and that error between those tasks have dependencies and are therefore often multiplicative and you'll undestand that a 95% accuracy while it sounds impressive is in fact dogshit.
What can you see from those SOTA results?
That we have reached a plateau of extreme and increasingly diminishing returns.
Most of the gains are from 2019, the year transformers were popularized. The rest has been a bag of tricks, and unoriginal minor optimizations.
The biggest innovation while still mostly unknown/underappreciated by the researchers group think, is XLnet, from 2019 too.
There is nothing else we can do, we have maxxed out the bruteforcing of statistics amalgamations, contrary to the belief, there is almost zero progress in SOTA results and most importantly there is a fundamental shortage of innovative ideas, wether we speak of an alternative to transformers or about innovating transformers themselves, nothing potent.
While it is obvious transformers are a misdirection, despite this I can improve the state of the art in any NLP task because there are additional ineptia in the research crowd.
Firstly almost nobody is working on improving the SOTA in most tasks, e.g. coreference resolution. Just look at the number of submisions over time to realize this.
Secondly as in every research field, the researchers are highly dysfunctional, AKA they will invent many minor but interesting, universal and complementary/synergetic optimizations ideas and yet nobody will ever attempt to combine them concomitantly, despite it being trivial. That is because researchers are not meta-researchers, and because of potent NIH syndrome and other cognitive biases.
For starters, the worldwide SOTA in dependency parsing is because I asked the researcher to switch BERT for XLnet, and it worked.
I plan to outperform the SOTA in coreference resolution in 2023, that will empirically strengthen my thesis on the dysfunctionality of mankind and on artificial scarcity.
I invite you to read this complementary essay on the topic: https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10677/substance-is-all-you-need/
VoiceOfLogic
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
then it pretty much falsifies, like, this whole community.
Can you expand on that ?
I am new here so I don't know exactly what you mean and what are the main beliefs of the motte community.
You could mean that a deficit of ideologies in this era would invalidate the motte in general ? Don't think so.
I believe you might have meant that such lack of ideologies would invalidate the notion of culture wars? If so I see what you mean.
So let me constrain my initial statement:
There is no shortage of tribes/groupthink, although some groupthinks have fuzzy/approximate delineations and have not necessarily core identities.
Some tribes do have well scoped ideologies, e.g the feminists/masculinists/egalitarianists.
Some tribes have well scoped beliefs such as flat earthers, but their belief is not an ideology per se, it is not a mindset/mental framework, nor is it a theory that desire to alter society for a "greater good".
Some tribes do have unscoped/universal ideologies though, such as the rationalists/homo logicus.
There is no shortage of beliefs, especially polarizing ones.
One could have thought the advent of the internet would uniformize mankind as in since everyone has easy access to information, people would gradually converge to semi-consensus as to what constitute reality.
There are many explaining factors that explain why people tribalize, polarize and can't assimilate what others says, including cognitive biases, and that is a too rich topic for me to analyze it in this comment.
Fringe theories (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fringe_theory) are very interesting as they represent the frontier of science/knowledge.
Some do have key insights or have had scientific value, for example Lysenkoism.
So if we have more than ever, tribes, polarization and fringe theories/beliefs, what did I mean by
I think we live in an era that has a void of ideology, narratives and utopia.
As I implied, here I have a specific meaning for the term ideologies, the keyword being to ones related to utopia.
The salient message I have is a classic and relatable one, that we live in an era of disenchantment.
The previous centuries, despite all their factual horrors, were filled with a high pace of progress and strong ideologies that made people dream of a better future.
For example:
The advent of democracies,
liberalism,
communism,
and socialism.
Regarding the pace of progress, every single metric of quality of life got improved, medecine, education, transports, socialization, etc
After each ideologies came their implementations and with time, their flaws and limitations got revealed to the world.
Nowadays we have a bitter but realistic look at past ideologies, and a deficit of new ideologies to sell a new dream/utopia.
Concomittant to this is an extreme plateau regarding scientific progress. The number of patents and papers each year is increasing fast and has never been that big, and yet the reality is we are constrained by the immutable laws of physics and we hit considerable diminishing returns everywhere.
There are many reasons to be afraid of the future, so many in fact that I can't be exhaustive about it.
Be it climate deregulation, the insane coming scarcity of chemical elements, the escalation of military and economic tensions worlwide and the risk of pandemics or the fact ageing is not considered to be a disease, to say a few.
The other side of the coin is that, yes we live in a modern world that give us a lot of abilities and yet there are fundamental things technology currently doesn't solves.
Humans are not happy enough. Most lives are utterlerly wasted being dysfunctional. That's right everyone has a mental disease, the fact it's not recognized as one by the medical system is irrelevant and does not invalidate the fact we all have it.
For starters, the diagnostic for ADHD is based on magic numbers for the tresholds, I've seen papers showing that with slighly lower thresholds, ADHD can be diagnosed to ~20% of mankind.
But the real disease concern 100% of mankind. We have a lot of time and we spend it ineptly. Humans are victim of hypnosis, a lack of awareness, very deficient memories regarding their qualias, low available memory, low eugeroy, low volition and of a potent hedonic treadmill.
As such humans waste most of their lives.
Again a topic out of scope for this comment.
In addition to this, people suffer from a loneliness epidemic and a recession in friendship relatability and intensity worldwide.
Mankind needs a new ideology, a new utopia.
Not a new sect/religion, not a new unrealistic dream, but an actionable vision that would bring revolutionnary results and hope in this misery.
People wants to feel like Chaplin made them feel https://youtube.com/watch?v=J7GY1Xg6X20
I have theorized a third way, a new power allocation system (a cracy) with results not only in politics but in recommender systems too, as would underdstand the people that ask themselves the right questions. I also have theorized a successor to capitalism. I develop a pragmatic way to AGI with incremental goals, I am the only one to have a precise and complete roadmap to increasing significantly men healthspan and lifespan.
I could go on with my works, why me ? Why if anyone finds a way to disrupts the world will it be me? Because I have not stopped dreaming, and yet I am a true rationalist. Very few people on earth follow simultaneously those two requirements.
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Usually things are trivial and just works, but not all technological ecosystems are equal, for example while javascript programs works fine, python programs often have dependencies issues (too old/out of sync). If the error message is a dependency version conflict yes, you can't solves them by yourself easily, often the thing to do in those cases is to look at the corresponding github issue or to open one. That way you can offload the troubleshooting on others or find out people have already shared a solution
VoiceOfLogic
1yr ago
Just saying:
installing software dependencies to run it is very simple you can learn it in 15 minutes.
It depends on the environment but e.g. for the popular Javascript command line applications you need to install the Javascript virtual machine (NodeJs), it will install for you Npm, the node package manager which allow you to install dependencies.
You git clone a JS repository you find cool.
you run npm install
and to run the app it depends, could be npx run or npm run/serve, but that detail is described in the Readme file of the github repository see section how to install/run
For other programming languages, the steps are very similar and straigthforward.
Thanks Cafe, that is a great comment, exactly the kind of informatively rich comments the motte desperately lacks.
I will give you a proper answer tomorrow but when I said that tryptophan cross the BBB, I actually meant about 5 hydroxy tryptophan (5htp), which has good bioavailability, cross the BBB and bypass the rate limiting enzyme conversion of L-tryptophan to 5htp (which itself downstream will again be converted to serotonin in a rate limited manner)
1998:
I have extensively studied almost all nootropics and therefore know most of the pharmacological markers that influence intelligence, however I have almost zero knowledge about the genetics correlate of hypermnesy, intelligence and rationality.
Does anyone know what are key "genius" genes?
IMHO I don't think intelligence is mostly bottlenecked by standard genetics, I am far more inclined to believe in early nurturial critical periods.
But I do believe in the potential of a practice that has long been forgotten, artificial cranial elongation:
According to scientists their brain volume is not bigger than a normal human being, and as such cranial elongation only solves one bottleneck: space.
If we identify the mechanics that drive the closing of the brain surface in teenage years and find a way to delay it, or if we intensify neuron and axonal growth during childhood via e.g. BDNF, NGF, etc and maybe growth hormone then we might achieve humans with the biggest brains ever.
Don't get me wrong brain size is only one metric and there might be a bimodal curve to it however our current brain size as shown by studies is totally constrained by a mere contingent scarce sugar consumption optimisation.
what do you mean by driving extinction..
Are you against the Flynn effect?
People nowadays have significantly higher IQs than past generious simply out of better acess to food and education.
past generations are being replaced and yet mankind is still dumb as a brick.
without talking about genetics or epigenetics, many people take nootropics that are cheap and mostly have benign or non existent side effects.
for example CDP-choline or racetams.
people that eat many eggs have transiently significantly better memory abilities than the ones that do not.
nicotine is a very potent nootropic agent, etc
Instead of virtue signaling about non-existent problems (the narrative than a newer generation of geniuses would make you appear subhuman is unrealistic, I consider myself to have considerably higher intelligence than my friends and yet we can still be friends and I respect them more than I respect my own self), you should try taking benign nootropics like low dose (200mg) CDP-choline daily it will midly improve your memory recall abilities and most importantly will slow down the ageing of your brain (via e.g. increased myelin production)
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