@VoiceOfLogic's banner p

VoiceOfLogic


				

				

				
0 followers   follows 16 users  
joined 2022 December 20 13:15:08 UTC

I happen to be, unfortunately, the first human super-intelligence.

What a sad tragedy to see what others can't see.

Verified Email

				

User ID: 1999

VoiceOfLogic


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 16 users   joined 2022 December 20 13:15:08 UTC

					

I happen to be, unfortunately, the first human super-intelligence.

What a sad tragedy to see what others can't see.


					

User ID: 1999

Verified Email

Until you run in a situation you never encountered before as the world is highly variadic and then the system pathetically fail.

Holocaust, 11 000 000 - 17 000 000 dead.

Well I'm not an expert on holocaust, a quick google gave me a 5-6 million killed jews estimate and that is the authoritative one on wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust#::text=Between%201941%20and%201945%2C%20Nazi%20Germany%20and%20its%20collaborators%20systematically%20murdered%20some%20six%20million%20Jews%20across%20German%2Doccupied%20Europe%3B%5Ba%5D

It seems the 11-17 number your refer is a mix of jewish kills and the killing of other minorities, especially Romani people

cf https://www.ilholocaustmuseum.org/holocaust-misconceptions/#::text=There%20were%2011%20million%20victims%20of%20the%20Holocaust%20(or%206%20million%20Jewish%20victims%20and%205%20million%20non%2DJewish%20victims)%C2%A0

I am not refering to the Jewish genocide but to one that is twice as big and that you never heard about because of racism:

It killed 11 million human beings, 11 million slavic civilian people for their ethnicity

https://studenttheses.universiteitleiden.nl/handle/1887/75106

who caused the Great Chinese Famine

PRC, Mao in particular.

Well that is a misleading answer.

Mao had its flaws but the general direction of china made sense, they suffered from the century of humiliation, something that isn't taught in schools because of racism.

As a result they went from the first economic power worlwide to extreme poverty and had to make, very late, a transition to an industrial revolution (from a mostly agriculture based economy)

There has been flaws during this necessary transition, however people completely fail to understand the reason behind 99% of the deaths, an artificial one, deliberately chosen by the U.S.A and other occidental countries, a worlwide ban on exports to China. A worlwide ban of many technologies including the main disruption of the century, the discovery and production of fertilizers.

Therefore the death of all those human beings has for main and sufficient responsability the occidentals hegemonists and their will to bend China and froze them into the middle age.

The ignominy of the west is rampant everywhere and the ignorance of those crimes againsts humanity continue even today.

  • -24

Well English surely seems deceptively simpler than it is, I often find in my quest of building the first program able to understand sentences, such hidden complexity.

The most effective way to contemplate it though is to browse this forgotten field that is Computational linguistics

https://semanticsarchive.net/cgi-bin/browse.pl?search=

what if it's Alice and Barbara? It might work in 50% of the cases then.

Exactly, this is an optimization not a necessary component of language but I believe, a useful one.

The most striking example is to learn French, where we gender objects. That seems absurd and it semantically is, but it allows to disambiguate objects in a mental scene.

Oh I just realized that's what you meant with German.

Also yes, the path to progress is a long one :)

Was that essay on metaculus written by you

Yes I'm the author.

Have you read it?

do you have a blog?

No I don't yet have a formal blog but I intend to write one in the following months and to shake the rationalist diaspora and confront them to their own limitations. A much needed endeavor.

Cool username BTW, have you tried lucid dreaming with cholinergics?

That is a geat comment, I will answer it properly when I get the time.

I see multiple flaws in that single sentence:

Remind me again how the "first economic power" was humiliated for a century by mere white pigs?

Remind me

Given the implied snark I will assume there is no reminding because you never learnt about it in the first place

"first economic power"

The quote of course aims to reject the claim and even ridiculize it despite being true for most of history and shifting in great parts because of the century of humiliation

Here you can obvserve GDP over time: https://youtube.com/watch?v=xb5zYKYF3Xo

As you can see, china has been the #1 economic superpower consistently during the last centuries.

The century of humiliation is from 1839 to 1949 but even still apply to this days regarding territorial losses.

by mere white pigs

This is bad faith and low quality.

No need to attack white people as a group, after all sociopathic policies are mostly not derived by genetics.

So about the century of humiliation, China was militarily forced by western countries to sign treaties against its own will and interests and to secede territory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_of_humiliation

The British forced the government to let it massively drug its population via opium

Colonization of Hong kong and Macao

Sacking of palaces

Invasion of various large territories including outer Manchuria

And various treaties that ruined the economy

As a result, China lost its functional sovereignty and prosperity.

The mere white pigs as you say, have induced similar suffering in most parts of the world.

  • -10

This is false and a cheap trick for gaining attentional emphasis.

Of course it is a truism to understand that medias often use omissions and quantifier alteration.

It might be more frequent than straight lies however the media do lies often about basic facts and as such it is not rare let alone very rare.

A common straight lie for example is to claim that there is no scientific evidence about something or to claim there is a single and consensual scientific voice about something.

Those straights lies (just one example among many) are very frequent and potent.

Hi, thanks for the heads up.

I agree I said the claim of racism with a bit too much insistance and that I shouldn't have used a universal quantifier "no one"

In case it wasn't clear, it was a figure of speech, I'm obviously not claiming at all litterally that no one knows about the slavic genocide but it is an emphasis to make people realize how strikingly underknown, undertaught and undertalked it is.

Context is key, did I say straight out of nowhere that the person I'm answering to did not know about the slavic genocide? No,

My initial comment was a question:

I invite the reader, for example, to ask himself if he knows what was the biggest genocide during WW2.

Then the person answering mostly failed the test as there was no mention of the slavic ethnicity being twice as big as the jewish ethnicity, which is the salient and useful fact.

They have mixed up the term holocaust (jew only genocide) with other ethnicity which hide the salient fact and defeat the purpose of the question.

Although my two salients statements, that china were induced extreme suffering because of the west especially fertilizer ban and unfair treaties, and that the biggest genocide concern the slavic ethnicity, are example of an asymetry in what matters to people from the west, the differentiating factor between slavic and jewish is none except the possibility of differential racism.

Therefore this asymetry of reporting and of caring of human suffering and of responsibility is an evidence based example of racism mechanisms or at best ethnicity selective apathy.

It would be hypocrisy to not admit to the asymetry of public commemoration between the two genocides. Shoah is a worlwide topic that is a basic fact.

Another piece of evidence is that I was mostly not taught those facts in my standard school (France) or they were mentionned for a minute.

The litteral title of the scholar paper research I linked on the slavic genocide is "The forgotten Holocaust"

I'm sure that make much more evidence than needed to get the point and have a civil discussion about it. But alas, people are polarized.

Yes some people in this community knows about those historic events contrary to my lazy claim however it is very likely that for the rest of people it should make them question their information feeds and their opinons about worlwide justice. Hence a rare and useful contribution.

Again I will avoid needless universal quantifiers in the future.

I wish people would come with intellectual curiosity and good faith.

pedantic note:

you're taking an unpopular ideological position

I am not doing any ideology here and I have stated no defense or approval for the PRC.

I am stating facts that can hurt beliefs in the anti-sino tribe. That does not make me a part of the pro-sino tribe.

I'm interested in reality, not ideological sects.

That is not a solid solution to any dataset changing in real time. More data can only do so much, as a metaphor, see the limits of AOT versus JIT for compilers.

Excellent comment, very much appreciated.

It's not everyday someones manage to teach me a new concept :)

Quite a crazy coincidence, I saw this word before your comment yesterday by pure luck https://semanticsarchive.net/Archive/WNjOWZiY/

It often happen to me, to see something apparently (?) for the first time in my life and then to see it again, in the following days out of pure coincidence.

While I'm tempted to believe such coincidence have a mystic nature, the insight I derive from this phenomenon is that I must have a cognitive bias of being blind to unknown words, that is until I see a proper definition of them. Kinda sad.

Anyway back on the topic, would there be a way to use an obviative pronoun in english without sounding too robotic/unnatural?

I am not making assumptions about your "sect," but you are making too many ideological statements to be convincing as a non-ideologue.

Seeing the world for what it is does not imply having mild opinions about things, quite the contrary.

In many cases, what people might perceive as ideological can sometimes be instead simple debiasing statements.

If in the future you see me say potent statements without any evidence nor trivially accessible evidence then I would like to be noticed and to provide said evidence or otherwise change my mind and exit a sect I was unaware to be in.

Maybe unrelated to your needs but I believe people waste too much human resources on niche low level languages like C/C++/rust (I've extensively learnt both BTW) and could get much more proficient and expert in their job language instead, such as Kotlin which is the sweet spot IMHO.

women rate him less attractive than men

Interesting, sauce?

What is interesting with those brows is that it is not in fact a feminine feature but a masculine one. Few people understand that the modern artificially enhanced woman has in fact an androgynous face to such remarkable extent that some of their features become more masculine than men themselves.

Strongly agreed on the saliency of it, e.g. for Elden ring.

However I sometimes try to read reviews not for being convinced but to be persuaded, to hype me.

Reading about flaws makes me emphase and give attention to them.

So there is a tradeoff but you're mostly right.

Excellent find, I wish there was a subreddit for obscure quality rabbit holes like this.

or ya.ru

I appreciate the mention of yandex, it is something that is easy to forget but google only shows a chunk of the internet, unfortunately I don't speak russian but yet I was able to find a unique find, inexistent on google, the roadmap towards the VVER supracritical nuclear reactor, coming this decade (IIRC) and that will disrupt nuclear fission economics.

BTW

how did you find this website?

Did you notice the main page?

https://hwlabadiejr.tripod.com/ENIGMAS.HTM#TOC

The author has made a whole book apparently

here's his (was?) email address hlabadJr@aol.com

I wonder what Horace W. LaBadie, Jr. is doing nowadays, would love to see him go on substack :)

Also one might be interested in using a "website auto explorer", a tool which automatically find sub-URLs on a website.

Thanks

I recall reading that people with exceptionally good memories have a hard time connecting with people because they remember in vivid detail every slight that was ever done to them. And that being somewhat forgetful is a necessary component for forgiveness. Sociolopsychology is fickle.

I can relate to that for another reason. I see people each year having the same conversations they already had years ago and they repeat the script as if it was for the first time.

I mean sure, it's great to bypass the hedonic treadmill and to be excited about things you already talked about in the past.

Me remembering things indeed maintain a bit my hedonic treadmill but the worst by far is to see the non-evolution, instead of taking the occasion of the discussion to explore the semantic search space differently, more in breadth and or more in depth, it is tiring to see the striking human stagnation.

I believe there would be many maybe surprising consequences, such as an explosion in social anxiety.

However the no filter effect would have interesting consequences on the group thinks/culture wars.

BTW one of the strangest things of this timeline is that apparently a huge chunk of the population is not able to think or at least they believe themselves they can't think.

Think as in subvocalize words.

https://old.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/exan65/today_i_told_my_mom_that_i_have_no_internal/

I have extreme skepticism on this phenomenon but if true it has many implication for AI research and philosophy.

In other words it might be that for a chunk of the population there is not thoughts to read at all.

However, one could talk about telepathy for the intermediate subsymbolic representation but that's not what your original comment was about and is definitely much less well defined, by definition since it is ineffable.

To argue that every languages are equal is intellectual obscurantism.

Of course both CS students and old timers are major tribes in that culture war but that is irrelevant to the fact that languages have objective features and merits that can be civilly discussed.

I don't think there is any possible kind/good faith interpretation to your question.

It just doesn't make sense and yet it was upvoted by 5 readers..

It should be painfully obvious that economic power is mostly hortogonal to military power, while there is some correlation it is obviously contingent.

It should be universally known and was explicited by one of my comments that China like the rest of the non western world was late regarding the industrial revolution, the design of war/killing machines and the use of powder/guns (which is ironic since Europeans originally imported that tech from China)

I didn't think it was useful to explain those things and why the west was able to militarily dominate the rest of the world.

Also the wars on china were a worldwide coalition of coercive powers, including Russia, the British empire, the French, and the U.S

What parts of China are still not under a nominally Chinese government, after the return of Hong Kong and Macau in the 1990s?

I already mentioned the salient one in my comment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria

invasion of outer Manchuria was a failure by the Russians and only occurred in the 1930s by the Japanese

What are you talking about?

The rest of your message is extremely flawed, to deny that the century of humiliation implied a loss of sovereignty and sovereign interest is beyond absurd and bad faith.

One can attempt to analyze and mitigate that some of the unequal treaties or actions were not that potent but that is overall an impossible goal.

See e.g: among many:

The Boxer Protocol of September 7, 1901, provided for the execution of government officials who had supported the Boxers, provisions for foreign troops to be stationed in Beijing, and 450 million taels of silver— more than the government's annual tax revenue—to be paid as indemnity over the course of the next 39 years to the eight nations involved.

I have read over 1000 Russian/USSR studies in pharmacology.

The Russian medical research is not the only one to be an isolated island, this apply also to Japanese research for example, see e.g their research on tinnitus.

While it is true that Russian research in pharmacology is understudied by the west, because of criminal mediocrity, there are many counter examples of Russian counpounds that have a decent amount of international research.

See e.g the biggest discovery in medecine of the century: skq1.

IIRC for Russian pharmaceuticals, the international researchers I "often see" study them are Indian or Brazilian. Maybe German too.

As for Nootropics or geroprotectors, they are generally markedly more ignored by the international "community" because of systemic failures, since nootropics/cognition enhancement are not considered a legitimate drug target and therefore is underfunded. Except for the niche research on mitigating fragile X syndrome, autism, the negative symptoms of schizophrenia, social anxiety, etc.

Since USSR and to some extent Russian research is public funded they are almost the only one in the world to afford fundamental research at scale of targets that have no commercial value in the prescription drug market.

As for geroprotectors the same apply, Ageing is generally not considered a disease, nor something that should be treated by taking pharmacology because we live in a very infantile/stockholmised world.

Even though geroprotectors often have partial efficacy against a wide range of lucrative diseases, the extreme inertia and cost of clinical trials combined to the extreme aversion of doctors for polypharmacology, partial drugs and simply keeping up with medical advance when it is evolitive instead of being disruptive explain that they are underresearched by the west and never prescribed.

The Russian also afford something revolutionary, they study the pharmacological application of drug that are plant/animal derived or that are endogenously produced in the human body (e.g. Peptides).

Those entire class of pharmacologicals, which have a billion of year of existence and bidirectional fine tuning, and ideal side effects profile are in general not patentable and since mostly only corporations fund clinical trials, the main class of medecine is in practice, non-existent because of broken incentives.

Because the Russian bypass those attractors/repulsors that plague the medical research, they can and do make revolutionary discoveries in most fields of medicine.

As i said, many Russian counpounds do have multiple international research that reproduce and corroborate the potency of their results.

However it is true that there is a concern of fraud/amplifying the potency of the effect of a pharmaceutical.

In my experience such fraud is rare but is possible.

The main candidate I have is the atypical anxiolytic Tofisopam.

Not Russian though, but from an ex USSR European state.

I have read the 300s studies about it.

There is IIRC a lot of corroborating studies from around the world, Including recent studies.

Tofisopam is an atypical anxiolytic, antidepressant, non addictive gabaergic, dopaminergic and generally excitatory drug as is is an atypical selective PDE inhibitor.

It is the only drug in the world to have this pharmacological profile and can be expected to have widespread, unique effects.

The body of studies for its action mechanisms are many and are very convincing in principle.

I am not rejecting the research on the nature of its effects.

Tofisopam is extremely interesting and that is not a fraud per se.

However I am rejecting the extreme amount of studies showing very potent effects on depression, anxiety, schizophrenia and other psychological conditions.

While the effect is real and tofisopam might be used for those conditions, how can there be so many studies corroborating very potent results while the actual reported effect online is very mild/inconsistent is a mystery for me.

Even though the online reports are rare and it might be that tofisopam truly is a wonder drug, IMHO I doubt it.

How can it be fraud when there is so much research from different teams and decade, even international one ?

Just look at how potent tofisopam is supposed to be https://fr.scribd.com/presentation/328205226/Tofisopam-Medical-2014-REVISED

A fraud at this scale can't be explained.

It would be too risky to synchronize such a massive amount of fraudulent researchers. Among the 300s studies not a single one significantly dismiss the rest of the research.

But if the reported potency of tofisopam is really a fraud then that is horrific for the rest of the medical research, nothing could be trusted as even a compound with so many studies, over decades and many international teams, for so many conditions would not be immune to consistent, systematic international fraud.

saying a lot of dumb stuff yourself

Please exemplify you have shown none.

Did I approve Mao policy choices?

No.

The state of this discussion on the motte is very worrying epistemologically.

You are thinking of me as an imaginary strawman with imaginary claims.

This is beyond absurd, this thread is fictional.

I bet the "lot of dumb stuff" is the imaginary strawman of approving Mao decisions.

I could analyze (not defend) the reasoning behind the killing of the four pests, which wanted to reduce the significant amount of wasted food. It backfired for sparrows unfortunately, it was a task done too fast and with too little risk aversion/metrology and was a factor in the great famine, among drought/natural causes and the reallocation of some farmers to working in the steel industry to increase the country GDP and attempt to put it out of extreme misery.

The human errors and the natural disaster cofactors of the great Chinese famine needs not to be analyzed.

You are completely missing the outstanding efficiency of my argumentation.

The Great Chinese famine was a temporary reduction of crop yields by 15%, up to a very short lived 30% reduction at its peak.

Do you understand this is a small effect?

My initial claim is: who bears the main (and sufficent) responsability for the great Chinese famine.

Non-malicious human errors + drought that led to a short-lived 15-30% reduction in crop yields or the West voluntary ban of technology and of fertilizers on China since decades and for decades?

Is it hard to understand that fertilizers have effects on crop yields much superior to 30% and probably above 100%?

Is it hard to understand modal logic and that the criminal, coercive fertilizer ban is a logically sufficient cause that would have totally prevented the Great Chinese Famine?

The exact same thing apply for the ban on machines to increase yields, and the ban on food exports.

No, basic modal logic is not hard to understand.

The motte community is here being very dysfunctional and that is very worrying regarding its epistemic quality.

Another thing to observe:

The great Chinese famine should not hide the potent fact that millions were dying of food hunger consistently in the years/decade preceding it. No need for the great leap forward for that.

The trade embargo was sufficient

https://www.jstor.org/stable/44288827

I have studied all anxyolitics, there are many effective alternative with no/low tolerance.

Based on the scientific evidence, I would strongly recommend opipramol or Etifoxine + TUDCA (beware CYP interactions, can be lethal)

Note: I haven't tried many anxiolytics myself but I have used glycine for sleep and I must say it makes me feel calm and nice/soft.

So about tofisopam, I have tried it on myself for 2 weeks (a bit too short, the studies show peak results at 3-4 weeks iirc)

Firstly I am not depressed. I can have mild social anxiety with some people. I can be a bit hypoactive or have slightly chronic fatigue or high sensitivity to sleep deprivation.

I am not anhedonic but I am less hedonic than I wish to be.

I have ADHD PI untreated.

I don't know what I hoped out of tofisopam, I'm not the main audience, especially for depression.

For the social anxiety it might have helped me but not enough experience with it at parties. If it helped it was inconsistent or ambiguous because I sometimes mixed it with bromantane (another dopaminergic and anxyolitic).

So what did it do?

the first day I felt a slight increase in heart contractility which is consistent with theoretical models

I didn't felt it the other days, probably homeostasis doing its work

at the upper range of the daily dose it felt slightly weird

Like I knew I was on something.

Subtle but a bit dirty.

Less dirty than high dose bromantane though.

At low-mid dose I didn't felt it.

That's notable since few drugs can be felt.

It might have helped me with ADHD in theory (dopa) but I did not feel an improvement. Nothing like e.g. 2fma

It might have had a Nootropic effect, lots of promising research on PDEs about this however I did not feel smarter however I consider myself a very high performer and did not design a benchmark.

It might have helped me with SAD (the most likely) but not enough data yet, I'll try again one day eventually. Especially as a potential augmentation to stimulants.

Yeah my personal report is quite useless but I hope it allows to bring some nuance that tofisopam does not do nothing per se, as in it is not homeopathy.

One theory I have to explain the reported discrepancy online would be that most of the lab rat(ionalist)s do not actually suffer from clinical GAD or depression.