dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
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User ID: 583
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1d ago
My q: How many professional, actively managed funds beat their benchmark index over the course of 15-20 years? Guess at a percentage/range.
My guess is
One Billion Jews
Recently, Gad Saad was on the Joe Rogan Experience and he asked the host how many Jews he thought there were. Rogan responded one billion, or 500 million minimum, conservative estimate. There are in fact about 20 million Jews. Rogan was off by a factor of 25.
Ha ha. But to be fair if you're not used to doing Fermi estimates you can get tripped up like this.
I asked Claude to challenge me on some that I might be similarly dumb about but I've spent enough time in this kind of community that all of the low hanging fruit, like murder rate in the US or percentage of federal budget that goes to foreign aid has been picked.
The ones that busted me hardest were estimating the age of Proto Indo European (
I ask you, fellow Mottizens, do you have facts that we should all know that would probably punk us if we tried to estimate? Tip: you can make something a spoiler by surrounding it with two | characters on each side (check the preview).
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
2d ago
Sure, but you can do things to change what peer pool they have access to to draw friends from and can take steps to minimize what proportion of them will be druggists. But even at good schools full of kids from high SES homes you still have almost all of them on devices with social-crack apps.
Thanks, yeah that's what I was getting at. Basically, for the device that's just to assist with piano, only give him a user (meaning non-admin account), only have one application that can launch (Chrome), have it force enable (and not allow disabling) one particular extension that I DIY coded (via claude), which only allows loading that one web site and only allow embedding that piano instructor's YouTube videos and does not allow playing any other videos.
Re: the ???
- It'd be a Linux laptop, so I'd customize the desktop environment to be more like a kiosk that only allows Chrome
- I'd tap into groupware functionality in Chrome so that the admin (me) can force enable/prevent disabling the vibe coded extension
Again this is for the online piano lessons assisting device. I think it's absolutely ridiculous that I have to do this. I don't even want a relationship with YouTube but the piano course guy chose it and this is what we have to resort to. It's a shame because his course is otherwise excellent.
I find your comment rude and not generous and am mostly going to disregard it.
My kid loves piano and gets a lot of value out of the online lessons and he does them at his own pace whenever he wants. The problem and the point is the tablet, which is just to help with piano, is a distraction machine by default and tech-media seems happy with that and I have to exert considerable resources to change that.
Yes I could do a lot of things. The videos are integrated into the web site so there's written parts and video parts that need to be next to each other to not be frustrating with, say, scripting yt-dlp to download all of the allowed videos to a folder that he has to switch to and find and run.
Anyway, I'm an ex Google engineer and I'm just saying it's not trivial to work around the viral and distracting content being jammed at him from every direction. It's a lot worse than me being on the internet unsupervised when I was a kid.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
3d ago
And I also would sooner find her parents more responsible for letting her be on screens all day than the social media platforms themselves.
The fucking problem with this shit is even if you don't let your kids have a smartphone with social media apps, if you send them to school, every single friend of theirs does and they use these social apps to communicate and bond and if your kid is the weirdo without one they feel unable to function socially and hate you every day for restricting them.
I have an extremely hard time keeping this stuff away from my kid even though we're homeschooling. He does an online piano course from his tablet sitting above his keyboard. The course web site embeds YouTube video content. He's repeatedly had trouble just sticking to the course and I've had to ratchet up parental controls to the point where each video he watches has to be approved by me now. They just won't let you program YouTube to say "only show and allow this kid this piano guy's channel", nothing else
I'm on the third parental control regime at this point. Next thing to try is to replace his tablet with a locked down laptop where he can only run a pre installed web browser that force enables a vibe coded extension.
Pitch: identify male communism influencers and try very hard to boost their sex appeal to insane levels. The rest follows from there.
Details: they need to have real street backgrounds, like be artists or bartenders or woodshop owners and show promise at building a following. Then I would start hosting these conventions/parties that are communist adjacent that are really just a cover to invite these guys to hang out and give minor talks. Very important: ensure these things are like 70% female and plant a few very hot women to be all over the influencers. Leak some photos of them together getting drunk. In the early days the goal is to make these influencers think they're God's gift to women.
Once they're properly motivated and thinking with their dicks + feel the communism flow through them, from there, continue growing the conventions/parties, always maintain the high female to male ratio. Make the parties invitation only but in a hipster kind of way (you need to know it even exists). The parties need some kernel of grassroots appeal to actually take off and not be lame. Has to be something fresh. You can hire women at first to come to these but at some point you need something sensual or cool that brings women out willingly. Things like climate justice or black lives matter are tired. This is probably the hardest part though you can try a bunch of concepts with $250mm to burn through.
Anyway as these grow bigger gradually make the communist male influencers more center-stage, giving keynotes, etc. always ensuring they're surrounded by tons of women and that their high sex appeal is not in question. And start making it easier for wannabe communist guys to come to these and maybe get laid.
I give it 5-10 years before this counter-culture becomes a political movement with real weight.
On Friday
You're a day early. He posted the demand on Truth Social at 3/21/26, 7:44 PM Washington DC time. So we've got another day to go.
to totally destroy Iranian infrastructure in order to destroy the country
planefag on X pointed out that the US has Graphite bombs, which are designed to disrupt transformers without destroying them. So the US could cause power outages with repeated bombings until they decide to stop.
Okay, so, if you get pulled over by a female cop and written a ticket for a broken tail light and you feel this was unjust you get to hire an actress to play her and act out a 14 minute long amateur porn style sexual humiliation music video about her? Because she's an agent of the state and subject to more criticism? Including this kind of criticism?
It's true, in some of the videos he is indeed criticizing or mocking the officers in their official capacity. Like the fat officer in his house seemingly tempted by the lemon pound cake. Or for seizing $400 cash. But in Licc'em Lisa video he's just portraying her as a whore going around town licking clit and ultimately getting seduced and fucked by Afroman.
I reiterate that it feels the jury was so annoyed by the officers doing a bogus search and bringing claims over justified criticism that they just overlooked this really gross one that came later.
They don't have to find it funny, lots of insults aren't funny or entertaining. They just have to find it not defamatory. Like one important question is would people who watched actually believe this was a serious accusation as opposed to making fun of her as an insult, like just calling someone a slut or a whore as many angry people do to women?
Funny is not the operative part. They just have to get what he's trying to do. But it's more than just words though. There's 14 minutes of video of him trying to sexually humiliate her. My argument is further articulated here: https://www.themotte.org/post/3618/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/423167?context=8#context
Separately from that, what about this from my OP?
I'm pretty sure if I tried flirting with a barista, she shut me down, and I took revenge by hiring an actress that looked like her and then created a music video depicting her as being mega slutty and then myself having hate sex with her and her loving it and blasted it to millions of people I'd be found guilty of defamation. The jury is only okay with this because she was a cop involved in a bogus search of his house and not a barista.
I'm positive I'd be found liable if I did this to a barista. But because it's a cop you could squint and argue maybe she's subject to more scrutiny but... how? She's a public official that executed a search warrant on his home, okay. Talk about how retarded she looked in his house. Talk about how crooked she is for being part of a search warrant that was bogus. Talk about her record as a cop. What does 14 minutes of soft core shot in amateur porn style video about what a raging whore she is have to do with any of that?
Officer Lisa may have to deal with ridicule about her supposed love for cunnilingus, but I doubt anyone making those jokes seriously believes that she licked every pussy in town.
But Larry Flint didn't film an actor who looks like Jerry Falwell having sex with his mother in an out-house in a candid looking video. He just wrote a fake Campari ad in his own known-to-be-transgressive porn magazine claiming it was from Falwell.
Does the fact that it's video matter? I think so. Afroman repeatedly flips between footage of the real officer and an actress that looks like her. He puts himself into the scene and apologizes to her, and then shows himself and the officer (the actress) having sex and also going down on other actresses. The sex videos are all done in amateur style, further implying they're candid footage. Though the video has farcical elements, he's also clearly trying to confuse the fact that it's parody[1]
NSFW: https://youtube.com/watch?v=7wWQxSV8CK8?si=zzuL3IqUoaJGOIys&t=700s
Are we sure everyone picks up the satire?
Me, I just don't have a lot of sympathy for this. I could see some people coming away believing this. Are they reasonable people? I don't know, reasonable person is doing a lot of work I guess. To me it seems like you have to be fairly media literate to navigate this all.
Keep in mind there are people who believe grainy amateur "homemade" sex videos are really amateur sex videos of the couple alone in an unscripted intimate moment and can't quite understand that there's a third person moving the camera around to film them. I would like to believe this population is tiny but I'm not so optimistic.
- Which, you know, makes it more outrageous and hilarious but also might sucker more people.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
8d ago
because the judge was almost blatantly biased in favor of the plaintiffs
Was he blatantly biased? I would expect the judge to prohibit Afroman from releasing music videos about the plaintiffs while the case was ongoing but he declined to?
This song seems clearly defamatory to me. The video makes it even worse with an actress pretending to be the cop going down on a woman and then acting out having sex with Afroman.
I can only conclude the jury hated cops enough and got caught up enough in the bogusness of the search warrant that they let him slide.
Or... everyone is just media literate enough now to find all of this funny? Rural Ohio juror grandmas watching the three strippers laying on his counter with their legs up, then the video of her actress having sex with him? "Yep, seems like non-defamatory free speech".
I'm pretty sure if I tried flirting with a barista, she shut me down, and I took revenge by hiring an actress that looked like her and then created a music video depicting her as being mega slutty and then myself having hate sex with her and her loving it and blasted it to millions of people I'd be found guilty of defamation. The jury is only okay with this because she was a cop involved in a bogus search of his house and not a barista.
I would say it's because politics is by definition polarizing. If 70% of people agreed on something it isn't really a matter for the political sphere. Politics is for deciding on issues that may only barely have majority backing.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
I don't think the outcome determines whether or not the action taken today means it's a mistake or not.
But I get the spirit of the question.
Went well: Iran has a revolution and re-establishes a stable constitutional monarchy.
Less well: becomes a bombed out basket case like Syria and can't really threaten anyone geopolitically and is only a drain on our adversaries if they want to help at all.
Bad: we get bored or lose our nerve and pull out and the Muslim theocrats re-affirm control and get nukes.
I'm in favor of this war with Iran.
I think #1-4 are great reasons. Additionally I would add setting the precedent that if you even think about using development of nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip we'll kick your ass.
Also it's generally good if we remind the world that we still have the will and ability to beat the absolute shit out of regimes that are annoying.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
Makes sense.
Monitoring the color of your urine is a good way to outsource for most people.
I've spent a lot of time camping in the desert (re: festivals) and the common recommendation was to drink water until you piss clear. That's a good heuristic but my pee hadn't been particularly dark.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
Yeah. No matter how much research I do on running and lifting I feel like I miss basics like this all of the time. I would feel like shit after a run without water but I guess I thought it was normal? Just pain that I need to push through? Ho hum.
It took me a very long time to get better at running economy during races, like not flaming out immediately in the first mile and a half during a 5k.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
well, when you put it that way it sounds kind of stupid
I just never felt thirsty :/
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
16 miles
I had a 12oz glass of water with salt in the morning and brought 60oz with me.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
11d ago
I learned this week that I was waking up multiple times in the middle of the night with a scratchy throat and an increasingly worsening headache due to dehydration.
I almost never feel thirsty anymore but given my level of running and lifting I should be drinking about 100 ounces of water a day and I was coming nowhere near that. As a corollary, I did a long run on Saturday and made sure to drink water before and actively during and it was the first time I finished one without a headache.
Who knew? Not me!
Wait I fucked up the percentage math. I thought "20-50 out of 1000, that feels like the right number. oh but he wanted a percent that's 0.2-0.5% right?"
I meant 2-5%
Bah!
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