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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The surprise factor works to trump's advantage...the stuff not captured by polls by possibly picked up by savvy prediction market traders or investors of DJT stock.  However, the cockiness by the left was nowhere near where it was in 2016.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It can be modeled as a doubly absorbing matrix in which winning/losing a certain number of swing states of a 50% probabiblity confers an absorbing state. This can occur long before most of the votes are tallied. having a sizable lead on 6/10 swing states effectively means winning the election, so winning 5/6 of the necessary states leaves very little room for Kamala to win. or 1/2^5 odds


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah many people still remember that 2020 surge


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Since Elon's takeover,  building an audience seems to be as simple as being anti-left


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Early-mover advantage of using big data and other quantitative methods to forecasting, tons of positive media coverage, darling of the left by predicting Obama wins and Democratic sweeps of House elections from 2008-2012. He was smart enough to pivot when the left became to extreme.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's not like he has millions to throw around. Nate is smart enough to know that accepting the bet would be Kelly suboptimal


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
election odds   are weird. they can flip  suddenly depending on a few states. It's the pitfall of having an extremely high variance and small sample size


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am sure some hedge funds employ their own private polling services, plus field guys to check turnout. You'd be amazed the depths hedge funds go to get an edge. note how DJT stock crashed 30% on Thursday and Friday before that surprise Saturday Iowa poll  , but DJT was flat on overnight Monday/Sunday trading. I am guessing some hedge funds were privy to those Iowa results.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
2017 will go down as one of the most interesting years in recent US politics. So many names and ideologies competing for attention and relevance to fill the void from the end of bush/cinton/obama-era politics. Neoreaction was fringe, but almost everyone who was in a position of power knew about it, that's how deep its influence was.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Polygon or bitcoin . Those really highly correlated with trump's odds


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trump polygon odds surged from 59% to 66%, but before we get too excited, a reminder of 2020:


https://www.charlesrubenfeld.com/content/images/2020/11/image-11.png


This is why so many people thought it was stolen. Trump looked like he had it in the bag, and then gone


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that would be a logistics nightmare


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
DJT real time stock quotes is the closest thing to a real-time barometer as to how the election is going for Trump. Or polymarket odds. But as for feeds, anything will do. There are hundreds of streams broadcasting the same stuff.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
All i am saying is that elite are necessary. People overreading into my comment to mean they are better, and heaven forbid some  bad people are promoted, as this this doesn't happen for non-elite roles too or anything else in life.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Maybe he does a better job pretending to fit in with those jobs or appears more convincing.


I dunno when McDonald's become the epitome of the bad job. I can think of many jobs  that are way worse ... even many people's ideas of 'fun' (e.g. running a marathon ) seem way less pleasant than a shit at McDonald's .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The silver spoon people from what I have observed are  sometimes more humble  or  nicer than the pulled-myself-up people. People have it reversed for some reason, maybe due to pop culture. The silver spoon people know they are already at a big advantage starting  out in life, so they understand that luck plays a huge role. A McDonald's stint will not change this. The pulled-myself-up people already had stints in bad jobs. It's quite common for people who start at the lower rungs and then move to the top to become detached, not those who start at the top.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Like everything, it's hit or miss. Elites being necessary doesn't imply all elites are good or competent.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
or even better, companies should stop requiring  degrees for everything unless the job necessitates it , like   being a doctor


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


And I think that’s actually why the elites running the systems cannot fix things.




Fix what? Elites developed the policy that solved the 2008 mortgage crisis as the rest of the world struggled. The zero-interest rate policy and QE has since been copied by other central banks. It was not elites who were buying those mc mansions with 0-money down. Same for Covid vaccines.


Elon Musk is technically is an elite and has contributed greatly to society. Society is not going to solve difficult problems like space travel using only ordinary people. Difficult coordination problems require elites. Sometimes the public isn't always owed an explanation or it would be against the interests of national security, like the Manhattan Project.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


What's interesting about Trump is that he can't turn this off either. He can't code switch between the two different ways of communicating, and it continually suprises him when he is misinterpreted.




I'm sure he's more articulate in business or private. also he's probably not as sharp as he was , so he's more  forgetful and like Biden has trouble finding the right word or names. Being misinterpreted easily is not always a bad thing as a public figure when communicating to the public. It makes it harder to attacks to stick. With trump you never know if he's being serious or hyperbole, so it keeps everyone guessing. To his supporters, they decode his language.  To everyone else they are either offended or confused, which was the point.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 23, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Gum seems to work for some people ,but one ought to always be skeptical due to placebo effect or other confounders


https://old.reddit.com/r/Nootropics/comments/yxwbhx/nicotine_gum_is_incredible/


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think he wants to pivot WaPo to something more like the WSJ, as there is more money and perhaps also clout in being seen as objective and not just a another political rag.


The NYTs and other mainstream media suffered from 2018-2022 by being perceived as too ideologically biased , such as During Covid or the riots.  Blaming Trump for everything was not going to work if people had grown to distrust the media in general, as Bezos noted. This led, I believe, to coverage that portrayed democrats and Biden in a more negative light, such as endless headlines about inflation and shortages and other problems during the Biden administration, instead of the liberal media being water carriers for the Democrats, as During the entire Clinton-Trump era.


Yeah he lost subscribers but probably made up some  of those. Only time will tell of this was truly an error on his part.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
this is why the min. wage is harmful. there is a market for dumb workers; it's just not high enough to justify paying them


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


puts out a work that everybody—critics, the public, etc.—agrees is terrible, it's probably not terrible in any metaphysical sense, it's just that the artist's genius has advanced beyond our ability to understand it.




So there is hope for Freddie Got Fingered? Some thing are bad and irredeemable. Or relegated to cult status. Has there been a piece that was poorly received and then gained widespread popularity?




1959 was arguably the most important year in American musical history.




maybe Jazz history, but  the  genre is still so tiny. It's amazing how A Kind of Blue, the best-selling jazz album ever, sold only 5 million copies in over 60 years despite all its acclaim.  Probably the invention of rock and roll was a bigger deal, but harder to pinpoint a year.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think it's more like Trump is not a nazi, the argument is that he condones those around him who invoke fascism. It's like the dog whistle  concept.