greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
User ID: 68
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
I'm glad someone finally posted it, but I would not say that it's flown under the radar. TracingWoodgrains also saw it yesterday pretty quickly.
It all over the news as well. This is the most scrutinized president in history, and there is so much attention on social media and elsewhere. Almost nothing goes unnoticed.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
He may well succeed. American negotiating position (as the world's greatest military power) is strong. We may see democratic nations transform into communist dictatorships liquidating their pension funds to fund American war factories, or taking IMF loans to buy Teslas. There is no ceiling to winning here.
it sounds like you are going full Moldbug
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
Man I should have gone into the humanities instead of into the sciences. I am so much more passionate about this stuff than STEM.
I have noticed this a ton on hacker News and related communities ,where there is sort of cross pollination. People who are in technology who seem really enamored by the humanities. I have never experienced this feeling as much.
I least am not supporting Trump because he's a paragon of morality , the most qualified, or effective at his job, but that he is the best option out there. Trump being unable to ingratiate himself with DC power dynamics lessens the likelihood of a major blunder, like another Iraq War or something of the scale. Tax cuts and stimulus are what we can expect, and judicial appointments that will outlast his term. The worst fears of every pundit from 2015-2017 of Trump came nowhere close to manifesting, so this makes me disinclined to take them seriously at anything.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3mo ago
Cars give convenience , which is close enough. Public transportation is slow and a waste of time even if it saves a small amount of fuel. Time wasted waiting for the bus, bus stops, and then walking too and from the stops.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
I disagree here. Without protecting of patents and other IP, companies are not going to invest in creating new technologies.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
Elon doesn't have much of a penchant for books either. Most of these billionaires and other successful people in business tend to be unimpressive outside of their craft. They are not erudite or worldly people. If the goal is to maximize wealth, this does not leave much time for other things.
I think it's too soon to tell. The market came roaring back and Trump hasn't even done anything, nor any progress from China -US relations. As soon as the stock market goes back up, he will go quiet. he hadn't complained about tariffs until recently, for this reason. It's not so much the tariffs they they dislike, but the market's reaction to it. To wit, excluding April, his last tweet that mentioned tariffs was on November 25th, 2024: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1861198845574815947
Regarding the economic implications, Ackman and others are justified in complaining. These tariffs are unprecedented in size and scope. It's like "we want trade reform, not a return to the early 20th century"
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3mo ago
The dems offer a lot: student loan forgiveness, healthcare reform, housing reform, etc. It's just the handouts are not as effective at winning votes.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
What has Trump got the power to achieve? He can bomb countries but struggles to achieve desired political results. Bombing Yemen hasn't stopped them
A tax cut to help the very companies that promote wokeness and censor its users on its platforms. Big handouts to AI companies. But I don't see much else happening legislatively. The real power is in the courts--things like judicial appointments, pardons. SCOTUS is where the real lasting change is. The 2024 ruling on affirmative action, for example. Stimulus and tax cuts tend to be popular.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
It is often, which was my point which you missed. I support the unconditional use of IQ tests for hiring/promotion, but it's wrong to say that testing is uncommon or that Griggs is preventing companies from using screening.
This means a pardon will be on the table as soon as it's an option. My complain is that the FBI and prosecutors have too much power overall whether it's sentence length or the scope of indictments, affecting both sides of the aisle, so this leads to more pardons and preemptive pardons. The abuse of pardons is really to lessen the the power of the judiciary. Compared to the rest of the developed world, the US hands out long sentences and indictments like candy, for all sort of things. The scary thing is how many files the FBI has on people who are never actually charged...it's immense.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
The metabolism slowdown is the major problem. Some people see such a huge slowdown despite still being fat and cutting calories to low levels. those people are screwed . you can only cut so much
I know that Belisarius thinks I'm a far-leftist (lol), but I think that a fair reading my post history will show that I am what I present myself as, more or less a classical liberal who hates both the left and the right.
yeah being here and recent events pushed more towards the middle-right. otherwise, a decade+ ago I was often the most right-wing person in any social event
Accelerationists (the three or four actual ones for whom it's not just a funny pretense) must be rubbing their hands raw with glee right now. Things are moving very fast.
they aren't. the first 100 days are always hectic like this as the new admin overtakes the departing one by hiring and firing staff, and so on. At some point, the low-hanging DOGE cuts will be done, and Trump will have to legislate to enact any lasting change, which as his first term showed, is is major weakness and he risks spinning his wheels for the next 4 years. Also, people overestimate Trump's willingness or overturn the status quo; look how he punted on any decision regarding the Bitcoin reserve, delaying it by 180 days, which likely means it will not happen at all. Trump also is pro-business and wants to make inroads with tech; these are very much in keeping with the establishment.
The same people who in 2016-2017 predicted the demise of democracy were wrong then and I see little evidence they are right now. None of these criticisms are new. Trump is more competitive , which I think is misconstrued for wanting to subvert democracy for not accepting the 2020 results unhesitantly. Trump has visions of grandiosity but I don't see this crossing to fascism or other fears.
In terms of foreign policy, a case can be made Trumpism can make America safer. Under Biden, saw Russia invade Ukraine, China flexing its might against Taiwan, Hamas attack Israel, Iran attack Israel, etc. Foreign leaders perceive Biden as weak, compared to Trump. I feel safer under Trump compared to other administrations.
What a huge rally. I am wishing I had been more aggressive. I bought on the dip on Monday. FNGA , which is a 3x tech etf, but I should have bought some 0-days when the story broke.
This is why you always got to keep some powder on the sidelines. You can do nothing for a year and then the opportunity arises 100x your money.
This shows the importance of not being whipsawed when investing. Stick with the plan if you're DCA (in which you generally want declines if you're young).
I don't think this will be resolved anytime soon, but what the market cares about is that things do not get worse.
Apparently China only accounts for 12 percent of imports/exports:
In 2024, US exports to China and imports from China accounted for 7.0 percent and 13.8 percent of the US total exports and imports for the year respectively
So with the 90 day pause on other countries, the actual inflation tally as reflected by CPI will be much less than originally feared and limited to only a handful of goods.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Amazing how as recently as 2008 the $750 billion bank bailout was unpresented, and now $500 billion is an afterthought. goes to show how much bigger the economy is and how these fears of debt are mostly hot air or unacted on. The people who have predicted debt collapse for the past 20+ years keep being wrong.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
similar to Covid, the market is pricing in the non-zero possibility of something really bad happening. like a bad recession or hyperinflation. Like Covid, history has generally shown such moves to be an overreaction.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
It always takes a few hours for the thread to be populated with topics ,and then the discussions build from there
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3mo ago
An alternative is of course having your groceries delivered, which is still far cheaper than owning a car.
Not always. in the long-run a car is cheaper. You pay a huge premium for delivery.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
Trump had made it abundantly clear during campaign and after winning that there would be tariffs, and even when he floated some tariffs in January 2025 and Feb against Mexico and Canada , the stock market brushed it off, only to crash a month ago. The market seemed to have no problem with tariffs until only a month ago.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
isn't that just sugar?
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
11mo ago
So in the span of 8 days: trump assassination attempt, Cloudstrike, and now the presumptive democratic nominee steps down, a first in decades. I think you'd have to go as far back as LBJ the last time this happened. The big winner is Elon Musk and twitter by putting himself center in the media spectacle. In hindsight, it looks like his purchase will pay off as the news cycle continues to intensify and twitter surges in use.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2mo ago
Splenda has calories, about the same as a sugar per gram. 3.5 calories per gram . but they are allowed to round it down to zero.
i was wondering what happened to jim. He owned jim . com which is worth a fortune. and then he stopped updating
others mentioned , on twitter, that this selects for people who are the best at bullshitting.
how many people can the administration fire? i would like to see the TSA be trimmed, but I would not hold my breath on that.
This is 99% of health/diet/nutrition research...just hunches without any evidence or only cherry-picked evidence. All macros produce an insulin spike. It's how digestion works. Otherwise, it would be type 1 diabetes. The same pleasure you get from candy or ice cream is no different from a fatty steak even though the macros are different.
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