magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
No bio...
User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
I think #2 is a paper tiger for countries in NATO; Russia could not plausibly gain anything from invading a NATO member, so whether it has an excuse to do so is not very relevant.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
I did not mean to. Oops.
I wasn't reading any fanfic in that screencap. The [NSFW] tab might or might not have been a fanfic thread, but if so I wasn't reading it; a post I made talking to the fic author had shown up as a false-positive when I was searching my own posts for something.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
1% per day of nuclear exchange is extremely high. That's in the ballpark of what the per-day risk would be if Taiwan were under attack in earnest and the USA/PRC were at conventional war; it's crisis levels (I think it very likely a Taiwan war would escalate to cities being nuked, but that's mostly because it could last for months without a conventional resolution and the 1-2%/day adds up).
I've been sounding the alarm regarding nukes for a long time - I think a full-scale nuclear war's more likely than not before 2050 - and I'm quite sure we're at much-lower levels of risk at the moment than 1%/day (for the next week I'd say <0.001%/day, though I'm less confident over e.g. the next three months). At 1%/day of nuclear exchange it is entirely correct to not worry about where trendlines are heading in 30 years' time, because unless that risk goes away inside a few months those trendlines are going to get scrambled (demographic trends especially-so - the deaths would be highly-correlated with living in cities which correlates with ~everything).
Your argument isn't entirely meritless, but the number you give is way out of line for that argument.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
"Everyone gets UBI, stuff costs money, but UBI is large enough that you have to be unreasonable in order to run out" is close enough to post-scarcity for most purposes.
Resource allocation is also not actually that hard computationally; linear programming works pretty well.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Your first pillar is true enough, but your second is somewhat confused. To be blunt, the fact that income and fertility are anticorrelated means that "cycles of poverty" are not actually failures from evolution's point of view - teaching your kids to be poor causes you to have more grandkids.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
It's a tricky question.
Overall, I'd say state media probably benefits from a diversity of perspectives, so I'd generally be in favour of journalists' right to expression but against a supposed editors' right to co-ordinate an ideological slant opposing the government. Generally I'd prefer relatively-little ideological thinkpieces from a government media outlet in general, although "relatively-little" isn't quite "zero".
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
First time I've seen the term, so don't give this too much credence, but when I see it I think "someone who wants to try fascism again but doesn't think Hitler was a good prototype".
Like, let's be clear here, by the standards of fascism Hitler was a total failure. The central dogma of fascism is to prioritise the goals of the society and, yes, the race over those of the individual, in order to succeed and compete as a group - and you win if your group is the one left around to write history books. Obviously, Hitler's actions did not benefit Germany, Germans or German culture in any enduring fashion; WWII and its aftermath saw a shocking number of Germans killed, dispossessed or re-educated into Polish or Russian culture, and saw Germany semi-permanently dethroned from great-power status and lose a lot of territory. Hitler didn't intend that, of course, but the whole point of fascism is that it doesn't care about what you intended - it's social-Darwinist and only cares if you won.
Fascism can never truly be nice, but the ideology's not totally meritless even from a "societal virtues" point of view; we yearn for a purpose beyond ourselves, we yearn for a community that cares for us as kin and is free of exploiters, and we certainly yearn for the power to overcome foreign threats to our way of life and culture. I'm not a big fan of the sacrifices fascism makes on those altars (and it has to make a lot of them), but I will grudgingly grant that you can be a Literal (Post-)Fascist without wanting to be Literally Hitler (postwar Japan is perhaps the most positive long-term case of a near-fascist society; there are a few other examples in East and South-East Asia - though I'd exclude the PRC as being too close to Literally Hitler - and 50s America also had significant fascist attributes in a somewhat-positive fashion).
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
I seem to recall something about it mostly not actually getting implemented, although I could be wrong.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Individual knowledge isn't super-relevant if you've got a fully-automated economy, and preferences likewise don't affect inputs, only desired outputs (and it's trivial, if somewhat tedious, to put a bunch of preferences into an objective function).
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
I am similarly pessimistic with regards to likely outcomes, but confident that the progress can't be stopped by rhetorics, and oppositely biased in principle.
I am not sure what this means.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
the pre-GamerGate era, when dunking on gaming corporations was something that "tits-n'-beer liberals" could do without pushback
Hate to bring this up, but having little contact with the meatgrinder I'm coming up blank for "obvious counterarguments". Is it just pure "only gamers would talk about this, therefore if you talk about this you are a gamer, therefore you are The Worst" suppression, or is there some actual rebuttal?
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
KulakRevolt's reply is solid, but I've a couple things to add:
Whatever you'd hope to convince people of by not wearing it, you'll be more able to convince them by wearing it and discussing your reservations. If you don't wear it, you appear attention seeking and damage your credibility.
-
A shirt speaks to more people than one's words, in a setting like a school (or really, most RL settings). Hundreds of people will see a non-orange shirt in the course of a day, which is more than he'll speak to in person.
-
He's caught between a rock and hard place re: credibility; if he wears the shirt and complains, he seems like a hypocrite.
(I wouldn't recommend a black or brown shirt, though, as when attention is drawn to shirt colour this is going to wind up with being called a fascist.)
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
If I had to steelman anti-AI-art, it'd be "neural nets are bad and every use of them we permit is more consumer opposition and entrenched financial interests we'll have to crush to avert AI X-risk".
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Not if the investigations interfere with each other.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
The Russians have been working on weird and wonderful new kinds of submarine; there was an incident a few years back where Sweden found evidence of a tracked submarine having crawled around the Baltic, and there's the Poseidon robot sub.
It's not obvious that anything found would be conclusively identifiable as Russian.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Eh. I found the article's evidence far from convincing (saying "this person is biased" doesn't prove much about society), and he didn't take on the core of the issue i.e. safetyism.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Yes - they found tracks on the seafloor in 2014.
The Baltic's quite shallow (average depth 55m according to WP), so normal subs have issues with accidentally crashing into the seafloor. A tracked submarine avoids this; it's already on the bottom. Tracks also, obviously, don't generate propeller noise, so listening stations set to detect normal subs won't detect them. Obviously, there are downsides as well (inability to manoeuvre in 3D being the most obvious), but for this kind of op it'd be ideal.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Is there something about this that's interesting? TBQH I'm not seeing any light here.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
The post you are replying to did note that things could have changed i.e. it is not obvious that this action reduced suffering.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
The worst dystopian fantasy is something akin to Aktion T4.
This is shitty but it's no Aktion T4.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
They don't. They want less executions total. The problem is that the tug-of-war can result in bizarre things on the ground as what gets done is what's easiest to defend (rather than what is best).
That said, IIRC there are some places that have stopped using LI entirely because the anti-execution lobby managed to get literally every pharmaceutical manufacturer to cease selling to prisons. It's not solely a "status quo is god" thing.
I'm not really sold on the DP in first-world countries myself, at least as a coercive measure. Lifers should definitely get the option, though.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
The issue with this is that without FTL there's a limit to what we can reach due to the expansion of the universe, so we're likely stuck in our local group of galaxies, where gravitational attraction holds things together.
Nah, the "reachable universe", while not as large as the "observable universe" and slowly shrinking, is bigger than that (it's something along the lines of a billion galaxies IIRC). The Local Group's only the eventual size of the reachable universe, as t -> infinity, not its current size or anywhere close.
Obviously, exponential growth will still hit the "reachable universe" eventually though.
Of course, if FTL is real then many estimates for the size of the universe boil down to "time and/or aliens are the limit, not space". 10^10^10^122 makes exponential growth go cry in a corner.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
If fertility rates remain sub-replacement forever, that's an X-risk. I doubt this will actually happen, though.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Even FTL is a red herring here. FTL to the rest of the galaxy would only buy us a few millennia after the solar system is "full"; to the rest of the universe would buy a few millennia after the Milky Way is full.
No, you're thinking of the observable universe - that from which light has reached us.
The size of the entire universe is unknown (because we can't see it), but it's presumed to be much larger. Some estimates are large enough that exponential growth is no real issue - particularly the "infinite" and "10^10^10^122" numbers (in the latter case, time is a bigger problem than space).
Could you give me an example of what "Russia doesn't survive this" as a scenario looks like, both in terms of how that phrase cashes out and how we get from here to there?
More options
Context Copy link