sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
No bio...
User ID: 636
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
That's hardly the question. The question is, had they been able to attract immigrants, would they have done better? The answer is clearly yes, for a sufficient quality of immigrant.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Regrettably, nobody has figured out how to rerun history and at experts agree that no two things are exactly alike. The upshot is that any example of a failing country with zero economic migrants can be explained away by some other factor surely being the decisive one.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
cause dejure
You mean "cause celebre", or perhaps "cause du jour."
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Huh, I always took you for a fellow Euro.
Too far, bro. Too far.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Yeah, we can quibble over the precise formulation, if you want, but the birth rates are what are. So I'm not sure what point you're making here.
The point is that "people aren't having kids" is a strong statement that's clearly evidence of some kind of catastrophe, which is presumably why you framed the question that way. People having one or two kid instead of two or three is less clearly so.
Also... the statistics you cited are from nearly a decade ago for some reason?
Unfortunately that's the most recent chart I could find for this.
Sure. I'm not exactly one of those types either, but his criticisms targeted a much larger group (like people worried about capitalism turning into neo-feudalism, which would include that well-known far-rightwinger Yannis Varoufakis).
Literally who? His party has zero seats, so this is another point in favor of the people OP is criticizing not being popular.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Statistics tell a different story, though.
No, they don't. 86% of women aged 40-44 (as of 2016) had at least one child. Perhaps you meant to ask a different question?
Funnily enough, I don't see much connection to reality in this criticism. Why is everyone screeching about "far right" parties performing well in Europe? Why is Europe adapting it's laws to enable more online censorship? Why is the UK arresting comedians for tweets? Those are not things that happen when a group is out of touch with the normies.
Despite the screeching, none of the far right parties want to throw homosexuals off rooftops, strip normies of the franchise, or 'conscript wombs'. That's why they are popular.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Are you suggesting that you figured out what timecube is actually about?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
I would narrow it to "Consider that perhaps a plan exists rather than think he's flailing around and screwing with things for no reason.
Talking about Trump doing things for "no reason" is basically a strawman of the anti-Trump position. If I ended up in a situation where I found myself trying to land a 747, I wouldn't be doing things for "no reason" in the cockpit, but it would be a mistake to think that I had a coherent plan to land the plane except to the extent that I'm aware that landing the plane requires reducing speed and reducing altitude.
And as I mentioned, it's not a given that Trump is actually trying to land the plane at all. He may be content to let the next guy try to land it instead.
If you don't think there's a plan, then what exactly are we seeing? And why does it often seem to work out for him?
Very astute, and this ties in to your final point. "The plan," to the extent that it exists, is mostly around Trump increasing his status and self image rather than helping the country. And I think that works perfectly - Trump is certainly better off than he was before he took office. Is the country? Not so sure about that.
I'm guessing that he's aiming/hoping for unleashed economic growth
Yeah, sure, everyone loves economic growth, or at least, they say they do. However, the problem is that not every policy actually increases economic growth, and for people like Trump who have a multi-decade bee in their bonnet about certain policies (like tariffs), it's implementing the policy that's the focus rather than achieving economic growth.
Let's get down to brass tacks here. Do you actually think that Trump is going to make a dent in the debt crisis? Or is this all just playing devil's advocate? Because if you really do think that he's going to make an impact, I'm much less interested in discussing the 4D chess moves that may or may not suddenly come down the pipe without warning and much more interested in putting down some actual predictions about the debt to GDP ratio and seeing who's right in three years, because I don't think that either of us is going to convince the other.
And if you don't actually believe, then this whole conversation is pointless.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
I think its worth considering that Trump may be aware of the fact that this current situation is unsustainable AND that making the needed cuts is going to be exceptionally politically unpopular, and that his ultimate approach to addressing this might be something people haven't considered yet.
I mean, yeah, you're not saying "trust the plan", you're merely saying "it's worth considering if we should trust the plan". I don't know that this is a major distinction.
What is the behavior of Trump we would expect to see in the world where:
-
He has a secret weapon for addressing the debt crisis, versus
-
He has no secret weapon
And does the Trump of our reality behave more similarly to Trump 1 or Trump 2? Well, the most basic graph would suggest Trump 2. Yes, perhaps there are some epicycles that can be added, but where's the payoff? Shall we make a bet about what this graph is going to look like when Trump leaves office and see which one of our theories is a better predictor of reality?
Otherwise, what exactly do you think his motivations are? Just ignore the debt issue entirely and try to kick the can until he leaves office in a few years? I'm trying to understand the mindset that suggests that Trump acts at semi-random or that he is SOLELY self-interested and doesn't have any goal other than wealth accumulation.
I don't know that his goal is wealth accumulation, I suspect he has already accumulated enough, or at least, it's not his primary goal. I think Trump's primary goal is something like status. He wants people to think that he's the best, that he's the Big Guy. That's why so much of his politics seem to revolve around the respect and deference that he receives, or does not receive, from the people at the other end of the table ("did you say, 'thank you, Mr President'?"). I don't think that the debt crisis is that important to him, and kicking that particular can down the road is a time honored bipartisan tradition at this point. Why not him too?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
The fact that there are no persons who can be held to account for any given decision benefits the entire structure, and makes it easier to pull off graft and rig things for the outcomes that they find preferable.
Who said anything about nobody being held accountable?
But if it is generally known that you can earn millions via graft if you attain public office, you will attract a lot of people who might not do the 'right' things.
Who said anything about allowing graft in public office?
I'm definitely NOT talking about "Classical" libs when I say this, in point of fact.
That's strange considering that the guy you responded to was talking about exactly this particular classical lib.
I have to say this conversation is very bewildering. The poster you responded to made a specific claim about a specific guy, you responded saying that people like that guy all think that we just need good people running the show for everything to be OK. I point out that this is exactly the opposite of what that guy thinks and you respond with a bunch of non sequiturs that seem to have no relation to anything I said, and then deny that you're talking about that guy at all.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
This is just a motte and bailey, right?
Bailey: The US needs to avoid going bankrupt. We (well, not we, since functor is not an American) need Trump to take extraordinary measures to achieve this and should trust the plan.
Counter: Trump is only making the debt crisis worse.
Motte: It's actually impossible to address the debt crisis.
Wait a minute, why are we trusting the plan again?
No leaders needed, just the abstract forces of 'good people' making decisions en masse without being beholden to the fickle, stupid electorate.
It's funny that you say this because this is basically a complete misunderstanding and, really, the exact opposite of the classical liberal worldview that Munger endorses. From another interview:
Michael Munger: Yeah. 'That's not real capitalism. But, what if it's true that, as industries mature, they find that crony capitalism is more profitable in an accounting sense than playing it straight? Then I do this thing that I would criticize in other people. What I will say is, 'Oh, we need better people. All we need is better politicians that don't engage, don't allow this rent seeking.' Or, 'We need better CEOs [Chief Executive Officers].' That's the one thing, Russ, that you know that I cannot say--
Russ Roberts: it's against the rules--
Michael Munger: because the premise is: You cannot say, 'Good people.'
Russ Roberts: Right. 'We need'--our premise, our team, is that incentives matter, institutions matter. And with bad incentives, the best people become corrupted. And with good incentives, not-so-great people do the right thing. So, that's the--right. So you can't say that... Before we go on, I want to read the Milton Friedman quote that came to mind a minute ago, that I think deep and important. He says,
It's nice to elect the right people, but that isn't the way you solve things. The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right things.
So, the point there is that--the counterpoint to that is that, eventually, the political system is going to be structured by capitalist influence to give out those goodies, so that even good people do the wrong thing.
The classical liberals emphatically do not think that if you just put the right people in the right place then everything will be OK. This is, in fact, the contrary perspective they are arguing against and that you are implicitly defending- that if you just install /ourguy/ in the oval office or as permanent secretary of the department of administrative affairs, or, worst case, if we could just fill the deep state with /ourguy/s then finally we would retvrn to the vaunted glory days.
It's remarkable that 250 years after Adam Smith, the classical liberal worldview is so hard to understand and so easy to round off to the complete opposite. Perhaps this is due to its great success turning it into the water we swim in.
I'm informed by experts that the ponies in MLP are late teens to early 20s. Having never watched any of it seen only a single episode over a decade ago, I really can't speak to the moral messages or role models in the show.
I'm not sure what kids these days are watching so I can't create a table as comprehensive as yours, and I didn't watch too many cartoons as a teenager. But I do seem to remember watching e.g. Teen Titans as a kid and, besides saddling me with a lifelong appreciation for dark haired women, I have a sense that the show had uplifting moral messages, though after all these years of course I don't remember a single plot point.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
his explanation for the appeal of anime.
How many of these features are explained by the kind of anime he's talking about being for children? MLP seems to fit the bill despite being made by westoids, whereas something like Akira, uh, does not.
Pat stories where everyone gets along in the end are almost universally children's fodder.. It would be ridiculous for an adult to hate Anna Karenina because it depicts non-intact families.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Also I didn't realize I had a tendency to make such posts. So much for self-awareness.
I greatly enjoy reading those posts out to my wife in my best Exotica Eric impression.
Good to know. Probably the guy's general selfish obliviousness (as if the gym is his living room) is the little drop of Retsyn that makes his grunting irritating.
Monopolizing equipment is definitely annoying but IME most people are willing to let people work in, especially on selectorized equipment like a leg curl.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
Once a 20-something guy came in, having brought with him with a girl of similar age, except she was wearing some sort of black latex body suit but without the modesty shorts--she was also gorgeous, brown hair up in this ponytail, and it was as if the clothing she were wearing had been designed expressly for her, designed solely to showcase her youthful perfection in all its...perfection
Your awoogaposting always reminds me of the 1994 classic Exotica.
Let me ask you something, gentlemen: What is it that gives a schoolgirl her special innocence? Her sweet fragrance... Fresh flowers, light as a spring rain... Oh, my god, my god... Or is it her firm, young flesh, inviting your every caress, enticing you to explore her deepest and most private secrets? Well, gentlemen, I'm gonna let you decide that one for yourselves.
I get moving really heavy weight sometimes there is an involuntary grunt of effort. Like when pushing a truck out of the mud with your buddies. But god this guy's constant utterances annoy. What is the proper etiquette, if any, for gym grunts?
It's entirely possible the etiquette in Nippon is different, but here in America I don't think this behavior is outside the norm. I personally find that making too much noise is not conducive to maintaining tension so I don't tend to do it, except perhaps at the end of a set where maintaining tension isn't that important. But I wouldn't think twice about someone else making noise.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
SVN of course had a diff merge mechanism, and one person checking out a file didn't prevent others from working on it. The checkout happened in your local copy of the central repo. When you committed, your changes are immediately sent to the central repo and you must resolve any conflicts at that time.
The difference with git is the diverging histories you mention - subversion does not allow you to have a chain of commits that diverge from the central repo that you plan to reconcile later. It has to be reconciled at every commit.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
That social class typically does not hold college degrees.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
San Francisco streetshitters notwithstanding, I suspect America is far ahead of the rest of the Anglosphere in terms of disorderly conduct by regular taxpaying individuals. I've known Australians, educated women, with college degrees, holding down jobs, just piss freely in an alley rather than find a bathroom. It's insane.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
I'm just gonna say it. The liberty bell is basically a tourist trap.
The Barnes is a good museum, but it (even combined with the Philadelphia art museum) pales in comparison to the Met alone (and the Met is just one museum).
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3mo ago
If you're already in NYC, the food and cultural attractions of Philly are negligible. I guess you could go see independence hall, but is that really worth dealing with the Philadelphians and what they've turned Philadelphia into?
It does, of course. The Koreans also participate in the local economy.
More options
Context Copy link