yunyun333
8d ago
The bigger problem was that everyone was asleep. My phone does go off with a weather alert when anything worse than a thunderstorm pops up, but it probably wouldn't wake me up. If you live near a danger zone then you ought to install a dedicated warning app that's really loud.
yunyun333
24d ago
"What's so bad about murder? Everything happens according to God's plan, therefore if someone commits murder that must be God's plan."
Don't Christians say this all the time? When good or bad things happen, it's "all part of God's plan". Either God exerts agency in this world or he does not.
yunyun333
2mo ago
The U.K. is apparently going to buy U.S. Beef
Britain and the EU won't buy beef from hormone-fed cattle. The way they talk about it, this probably won't change.
Ukraine Mineral Deal
As discussed previously this is a nothingburger, but if it makes Trump happy, good job Zelensky.
yunyun333
4mo ago
Ukraine doesn't even have meaningful amounts of minerals. This whole talking point is completely empty.
Ukraine has no significant rare-earth deposits other than small scandium mines. The US Geological Survey, an authority on the matter, doesn’t list the country as holding any reserves. Neither does any other database commonly used in the mining business. At best, the value of all the world’s rare-earth production rounds to $15 billion a year — emphasis on “a year.” That’s equal to the value of just two days of global oil output. Even if Ukraine had gigantic deposits, they wouldn’t be that valuable in geo-economic terms.
Say that Ukraine was able, as if by magic, to produce 20% of the world’s rare earths. That would equal to about $3 billion annually. To reach the $500 billion mooted by Trump, the US would need to secure 150-plus years of Ukrainian output.
Take, for instance, titanium. In 2023 the entire world market for the hard, super-light metal was $31 billion. Last year, Ukraine exported just $11.6 million – not billion – of titanium-bearing minerals. Though in theory some 7 per cent of the world’s reserves of titanium are under Kyiv’s control, it will take an investment of billions to create refining capacity to make more valuable and exportable titanium sponge. Even then, seven per cent of the world market would amount to gross sales of just over $2 billion a year.
It’s the same story with lithium. In Lindsey Graham’s imaginary world, Ukraine’s estimated 500,000 tonnes of reserves could be worth between $10 billion and $12.5 billion at current prices. But world lithium sales in 2024 were just $37 billion... according to a recent report by BNE Intellinews, “Kyiv has yet to even begin exploiting its deposits [and] produces no lithium.” Some of the most promising deposits at Kruta Balka deposits in the Zaporizhzhia region are partially under Russian control
It's too expensive to send Ukraine weapons, but also we must put boots on the ground and invest tens of billions into Gaza to make it an Israeli Monaco, or something. None of this is coherent.
yunyun333
2mo ago
Deporting him is one thing, but sending him straight to the gangster's prison for the worst people imaginable because he wore a chicago bulls hat is a bit much. They should at least ask Bukele to let him out.
yunyun333
7mo ago
Last Friday after several days of deadlocked deliberations, the judge agreed to the prosecutor's request to drop the most serious charge of manslaughter, and asked the jury to consider the lesser charge of negligent homicide. It's strange that the jury was so quickly able to dismiss this charge while spending multiple days debating the more serious one.
This case was pretty controversial but judging by the political temperature I don't forecast any major protests or riots.
More seriously, why do you think "generation" is the best translation for genea here (which can also be translated "nation" and or refer to a people group – Christ repeatedly, including in the section immediately prior, uses this word when referencing the Jews who opposed his teaching.)
Because that's how it's translated in like every English translation, such as the NRSV, the biblical scholar version. More seriously, here's a comment stolen from academicbiblical:
The "this generation" (γενεὰ) is Jesus' contemporaries. Jesus is prophesying the imminent arrival of the eschaton within the lifetime of those around him. This interpretation is the consensus of scholarship. See W.D. Davies and Dale C. Allison Jr, Matthew 19-28: Volume 3 (International Critical Commentary), 2004.
'All these things' refers to the eschatological scenario as outlined in vv. 4-31 and declares that it shall come to pass before Jesus' 'generation' has gone. In favour of this is the imminent eschatological expectation of many early Christians (cf. esp. 10.23 and Mk 9.1) as well as Jn 21.20-3, which reflects the belief that Jesus would come before all his disciples' had died. So most modern commentators.
...
We favour interpretation (ii). γενεὰ plainly refers to Jesus' contemporaries in 11.16; 12.39, 41, 42, 45; 16.4; and 17.17 as well as in the close parallel in 23.36, and the placement of our verse after a prophecy of the parousia is suggestive. If it be objected that this makes for a false prophecy and raises the issue of 2 Pet 3.3-4, we can only reply that some of Jesus' contemporaries were perhaps still alive when Matthew wrote, so he did not have the problem we do. In summary, then, the last judgement will fall upon 'this generation' just as earlier judgements fell upon the generation of the flood and the generation in the wilderness.
The earliest Christians believed that Jesus was returning soon, real soon. That's why Paul has to reassure the Thessalonians that the dead will rise and join Christ before them, the living. You can see the evolution of this belief in John, the last gospel to be written (multiple generations after Jesus's death), where the imminent apocalyptism of the Synoptics has completely vanished, because obviously Jesus hadn't returned yet. There's also the little passage at the end of John, where Jesus remarks, "If I want him [the beloved disciple] to remain until I return, what is that to you?". Now whether or not Jesus actually said this, clearly people thought he did, and so they thought the beloved disciple would be alive when Jesus returned. But because the beloved disciple died in the meantime, the gospel of John has to make clear that Jesus was making a hypothetical statement.
yunyun333
3mo ago
Trump exempts smartphones and computers from new tariffs
US President Donald Trump's administration has exempted smartphones and computers from reciprocal tariffs, including the 125% levies imposed on Chinese imports. The move comes after concerns from US tech companies that the price of gadgets could skyrocket, as many of them are made in China. The exemptions also include other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells and memory cards.
Some estimates suggested iPhone prices and other electronic goods in the US would have gone up three times if the costs of the tariffs had been passed on to consumers. Trump's move takes off "a huge black cloud overhang for now over the tech sector and the pressure facing U.S. Big Tech", said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a research note, according to the Associated Press.
The US is a major market for iPhones, while Apple accounted for more than half of its smartphones sales last year, according to Counterpoint Research. It says as much as 80% of Apple's iPhones intended for US sale are made in China, with the remaining 20% made in India. Along with fellow smartphone giants such as Samsung, Apple has been trying to diversify its supply chains to avoid over-reliance on China in recent years. India and Vietnam emerged as frontrunners for additional manufacturing hubs. As tariffs took effect, Apple reportedly looked to speed up and increase its production of India-produced devices in recent days.
Lot of sound and fury, but it seems at the end of the day nothing will happen. Over/under on how many more 'exemptions' we'll end up with?
yunyun333
3mo ago
Proof or Bluff? Evaluating LLMs on 2025 USA Math Olympiad
Abstract: Recent math benchmarks for large language models (LLMs) such as MathArena indicate that state-of-the-art reasoning models achieve impressive performance on mathematical competitions like AIME, with the leading model, o3-mini, achieving scores comparable to top human competitors. However, these benchmarks evaluate models solely based on final numerical answers, neglecting rigorous reasoning and proof generation which are essential for real-world mathematical tasks. To address this, we introduce the first comprehensive evaluation of full-solution reasoning for challenging mathematical problems. Using expert human annotators, we evaluated several state-of-the-art reasoning models on the six problems from the 2025 USAMO within hours of their release. Our results reveal that all tested models struggled significantly, achieving less than 5% on average. Through detailed analysis of reasoning traces, we identify the most common failure modes and find several unwanted artifacts arising from the optimization strategies employed during model training. Overall, our results suggest that current LLMs are inadequate for rigorous mathematical reasoning tasks, highlighting the need for substantial improvements in reasoning and proof generation capabilities.
Background: The 'official' American competitive high school math circuit has several levels, progressing from AMC 10/12 (25 question, multiple choice, 75 minutes total) to AIME (15 questions, 3 hours, answers are in the form of positive 3 digit integers) to USAMO (2 days, 6 proof-based questions total, 3 questions with 4.5 hours per day), with difficulty increasing commensurate with the decrease in # of questions. While most AIME questions can be ground out using a standard set of high school/introductory college level math knowledge and tricks, the USAMO requires more depth of understanding and specialized techniques. For example, problem 1 (theoretically, the easiest) is as follows:
Let k and d be positive integers. Prove that there exists a positive integer N such that for every odd integer n > N , the digits in the base-2n representation of n^k are all greater than d.
This problem can be solved fairly simply using induction on k.
I've also noticed this when plugging grad-level QM questions into Gemini/ChatGPT. No matter how many times I tell it that it's wrong, it will repeatedly apologize and make the same mistake, usually copied from some online textbook or solution set without being able to adapt the previous solution to the new context.
yunyun333
5mo ago
U.S. President Donald Trump made the shocking announcement on Tuesday during a joint press conference with visiting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he will pursue a plan where the U.S. assumes ownership of Gaza, shortly after calling for the permanent displacement of the Strip's residents.
"The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip and we'll do a good job with it too. We'll own it and be responsible for dismantling all the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out and create economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area," he said.
When asked if this meant that Trump would send U.S. troops to Gaza, he said "if it's necessary, we'll do that. We're gonna take over that piece and develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs. It will be something the entire Middle East can be very proud of."
Now there are a few problems with this. One is that Egypt and Jordan, the obvious candidates, are absolutely against it. Second is that it will be horribly embarrassing when an American soldier gets blown up by unexploded American ordnance that was donated to Israel. It's also somewhat incoherent - he's going to make it into some kind of big multicultural party zone?
"I envision the world's people living there. You'll make it into an international, unbelievable place. The entire world will be there - Palestinians also - many people will live there.
The US does have lots of leverage over Egypt though, their economy has been on the cusp of collapse for a while now. So maybe Trump's increased willingness to deploy coercion will bear fruit here.
yunyun333
4mo ago
Yup, one proposal was for a telescope in Chile, and it had a throwaway sentence about how it could help get more Hispanic students interested. As if telescopes are built in Chile for outreach and not because it has a crazy dry high desert.
yunyun333
6mo ago
Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected
Last Friday evening, Steven Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, called from Qatar to tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides that he would be coming to Israel the following afternoon. The aides politely explained that was in the middle of the Sabbath but that the prime minister would gladly meet him Saturday night.
Witkoff's blunt reaction took them by surprise. He explained to them in salty English that Shabbat was of no interest to him. His message was loud and clear. Thus in an unusual departure from official practice, the prime minister showed up at his office for an official meeting with Witkoff, who then returned to Qatar to seal the deal.
In fact, Witkoff has forced Israel to accept a plan that Netanyahu had repeatedly rejected over the past half year. Hamas has not budged from its position that the hostages' freedom must be conditioned on the release of Palestinian prisoners (the easy part) and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza (the hard one). Netanyahu rejected this condition and thus was born the partial deal proposed by Egypt.
It's hard to know how Netanyahu feels about this aggressive behavior. While it provides an excuse he can give to his base, he may resent being dragged into an unwanted deal that will end the war and possibly lead to political upheaval at home. His propaganda machine is pushing the no-choice narrative that it's Trump. On Monday, laments began to be heard on Channel 14 that Trump isn't what we thought. "I'm surprised all the senior officials in the U.S. administration are saying the same thing," Yotam Zimri said on the Patriots program. "If this doesn't happen by the time Trump comes in, Hamas will understand what hell is. I don't understand the Israeli interest in at least not waiting for Trump." Yinon Magal answered," It's because Trump is pressing to do it! That's what's happening."
Trump declared repeatedly that if the remaining Israeli hostages weren't out by his inauguration there would be 'hell to pay'. Most people assumed this meant that MIGA Don would fully back more aggressive Israeli military action, but instead he's willing to pressure Israel into a deal they don't want. Israeli finance minister Smotrich called it a 'catastrophe' and if he quits the government it would collapse Netanyahu's coalition.
Details of the proposed plan can be found here:
Both sides agreed that Hamas would release three hostages on the first day of the agreement, after which Israel would begin withdrawing the troops from populated areas. Seven days later, Hamas would release four additional hostages, and Israel would allow displaced people in the southern to return to the north, but only on foot via the coastal road. Cars, animal-drawn carts, and trucks would be permitted to cross through a passage adjacent to Salah al-Din Road, monitored by an X-ray machine operated by a Qatari-Egyptian technical security team.
The agreement includes provisions for Israeli forces to remain in the Philadelphi corridor and maintain an 800-meter buffer zone along the eastern and northern borders during the first phase, which will last 42 days. Israel has also agreed to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including approximately 190 who have been serving sentences of 15 years or more. In exchange, Hamas will release 34 hostages. Negotiations for the second and third phases of the agreement would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
yunyun333
4mo ago
Today I see news that the NSF research experiences for undergraduates, which trains undergraduates to conduct real research and which I personally credit with making me into a scientist, is being shuttered across much of the country.
Someone did a look into science grants being cancelled on the ssc sub and their conclusion was that DOGE or whoever basically just ctrl+f'd "diverse", "underrepresented", and "minority" and axed all matches. This would correspond with why REUs are being shuttered.
yunyun333
5mo ago
A plane crashed into an army helicopter over Reagan airport and everyone died. Of course, before the black boxes can be dug up come the recriminations. Trump blamed DEI; posters here may be familiar with the case of the FAA hiring lawsuit over a 'biographical questionnaire' designed to increase diversity in air traffic controllers. This leads to the always fun "please let it be a _____" game played by ideologues on both sides. Why not just let a sober investigation determine the causal factors first? And of course you can't draw conclusions about a 'competency crisis' simply from headline grabbing anecdotes. The point of moving away from DEI and such systems was to tamper down racial tensions instead of focusing even more attention on it.
yunyun333
5mo ago
No one has to push anything. Sometimes horrible accidents happen like the recent Jeju Air crash. We can learn things from them that have nothing to do with DEI, like "don't put concrete barriers at the end of runways". If the left wants to push "this is because he fired the head of TSA" (a real take) then just point out how ludicrous that is.
yunyun333
6mo ago
Canada's finance minister quits over Trump tariff dispute with Trudeau
Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned from her post, citing disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on how to respond to incoming President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs. In her publicly-shared resignation letter, Freeland said Canada needs to keep its "fiscal powder dry" to deal with the threat of sweeping tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump.
She added this means "eschewing costly political gimmicks" that Canada cannot afford. Trump has promised to impose a levy of 25% on imported Canadian goods, which economists have warned would significantly hurt Canada's economy. Referencing the tariffs, Freeland called them a "threat" that needs to be taken "extremely seriously".
She and Trudeau were reportedly also in disagreement over a series of recently-proposed policies by the prime minister designed to address the country's cost-of-living crisis. Among them is a cheque of C$250 that the government wanted to send to every Canadian earning less than C$150,000 annually. These cheques were expected to cost the federal government a total of C$4.68bn. Another is a temporary tax break on essential items during the holidays which is anticipated to cost C$1.6bn in lost tax revenue. Freeland's office had reportedly been concerned about the price of these two policies, saying they are economically unwise at a time when the country's deficit is growing.
Seems like Trudeau is floundering for some ways to keep his job and his head economist didn't approve. I'm not sure why Trump wants to mega tax Canada but it certainly can't have helped. This may end up bringing down the Trudeau government.
Now we see if 3 months is long enough to rev up a credible presidential campaign.
He doesn't mention picking a successor, but may in a speech later this week.
E: He endorsed Kamala. Obama did not, calling for an "open nominating process", and didn't even mention Harris.
yunyun333
2mo ago
So Trump and Vance whine for the past year about how sending over weapons is too expensive and we need to stop, but 4 'slightly bigger' mineral deposits of questionable economic value will serve as a casus belli for dropping in American soldiers?
Hell, he's apparently gotten Ukraine actually paying for U.S. weapons now
Isn't Ukraine mega bankrupt? They'll be effectively paying America with America's own aid.
yunyun333
2mo ago
There are people that argue this. For example: https://www.academia.edu/97411885/This_Generation_in_Matthew_24_34
Like this last group of scholars, I would suggest that, in Matthew 24:34, η γενεα αυτη denotes the people of Israel who are unfaithful to God. I will seek to demonstrate that thesis in these lectures by showing that (1) qualitative uses of γενεά were common in ancient Greek literature, that (2) this specific qualitative use of γενεά was used in Deuteronomy 32, which is the source of Jesus’ “this generation” sayings in Matthew, that (3) this allusion to Deuteronomy 32 is part of a larger pattern in Matthew of portraying Jesus as the new Moses who will lead His people of Israel out of exile and into their promised land under His theocratic rule, and that (4) this specific qualitative sense best fits the immediate contact of Matthew 24:34.
But again it all strikes me as special pleading, even though I'm sure this scholar put a lot of high quality research into it. Apocalypticism is a dominant theme from early Christian documents. They expected Jesus to return soon, because Jesus said he was returning soon. The prima facie reading would be what people back then understood.
yunyun333
2mo ago
Again, I've looked through many commentaries, they are pretty unambiguous about this line. I feel confident enough not to bother pirating a more modern one.
Still not really seeing engagement with my point about Matthew 16:4.
Sure, it could be a group of people - contemporary people. Which is in line with every other place he uses it.
yunyun333
3mo ago
Both those things were motivated by angry Palestinian refugees wanting to fight Israel while their host countries weren't so keen. One reason this whole situation is such a mess is that King Abdullah annexed the West Bank which was supposed to be the core of the new Palestinian state, which also happened to make Palestinians a majority of the Jordanian population. Obviously the Palestinians were more keen on attacking Israel than Jordan, especially post-67.
As for Lebanon, Israel set up a false flag terror group attempting to provoke the PLO into war during a ceasefire. They also attempted to assassinate the American ambassador to Lebanon.
yunyun333
3mo ago
That is, you either deny the main principle of democracy
Democracy is a system of government, not a scientific method.
yunyun333
4mo ago
Physics professor Steve Hsu's take: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1889350047004848291
Cutting ICs will only indirectly affect woke activities. The cuts will harm overall university budgets, but the main harm will be to very expensive STEM activities on campus, which require large IC charges to fund.
Building new labs, renovating old labs, hiring staff to deal with real regulatory and compliance requirements, etc. all require additional funds from ICs. Existing grants do not cover any of these costs which are very large and very real.
Without sufficient ICs a university could easily decide that STEM research is too expensive, while cash cow race-to-the-bottom courses in Sociology or Psychology become more attractive. There are fierce internal battles between factions within every university, and if STEM research becomes a big money loser, its advocates will lose more battles.
Overall this is a huge win for China because the appeal of working as a scientist at a US university is significantly diminished as the available resources decrease.
yunyun333
4mo ago
Why would foreign adversaries concern themselves with small fry, when they can go for the big fish?
In late 2024 U.S. officials announced that hackers affiliated with Salt Typhoon had accessed the computer systems of nine U.S. telecommunications companies, later acknowledged to include Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Spectrum, Lumen, Consolidated Communications, and Windstream.[8][9][10] The attack targeted U.S. broadband networks, particularly core network components, including routers manufactured by Cisco, which route large portions of the Internet.[3][4] In October 2024, U.S. officials revealed that the group had compromised internet service provider (ISP) systems used to fulfill CALEA requests used by U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies to conduct court-authorized wiretapping.[9]
The hackers were able to access metadata of users calls and text messages, including date and time stamps, source and destination IP addresses, and phone numbers from over a million users; most of which were located in the Washington D.C. metro area. In some cases, the hackers were able to obtain audio recordings of telephone calls made by high profile individuals.[11] Such individuals reportedly included staff of the Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign, as well as phones belonging to Donald Trump and JD Vance.[12] According to deputy national security advisor Anne Neuberger, a "large number" of the individuals whose data was directly accessed were "government targets of interest."[11]
Epstein DID kill himself. Also there's no client list. Stop asking questions
Well, there you go. It's been almost 6 years since Epstein did/didn't kill himself, and now we can close the book on the whole sordid mess (his primary accuser also happened to die by suicide (?) a few months ago). Epstein just wasn't a diligent record keeper. In unrelated news, Netanyahu nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
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