reo
19d ago
Interpreting a chart will help you decide what to buy, when to buy, and when to sell.
From this. As i said, this is what i interpreted as (that is different from claiming that you have exactly said that).
Nowhere have you said: "assess the fundamentals of a company (or sector), and then overlay technical analysis and charting to correctly identify the points (or areas) of when to buy and when to sell, etc.?". Or any other elaborate or simple explanation.
reo
19d ago
from my understanding, CAN-SLIM is fundamentals boosted by technical analysis. Not technical analysis alone.
my interpretation of our discussion till now has been:
- you propose using technical analysis as the sole basic idea. and not as something to overlay on fundamental analysis (which CAN-SLIM is).
- my own interpretation is that technical analysis (charting), if true, should not have anything to do with the underlying fundamentals of whatever we are charting / analysing technically. Whether it is AAPL or GLD, charts should work on human nature rather than the properties of Apple's earnings or Gold's no earnings.
Please correct.
reo
19d ago
Yeah, that is a good book (I had read it long back - around 15 years ago; many of his recommendations, I still follow till date. one of the foundational books for me).
i don't think CAN-SLIM is a technical analysis system. i may have forgotten lot of stuff from the book though.
reo
21d ago
Sorry if my comments have felt unknowledgeable. I am not here to prove / disprove for or against technical analysis. I am genuinely asking you to show someone (me) who doesn't know technical analysis, and who doesn't feel the need to either. Their necessity and usefulness is not obvious to me.
Sometimes, a good example can go a long way in making someone understand the use of something. It demonstrates the practicality directly. Empirically.
like you said, just lump sums / dollar cost averages into a fund will give "okay" results. <-- that is an empirically practical system.
where is such an ELI5/ELI10 explanation for Technical Analysis.
My, current, assessment is that putting effort into learning technical analysis will not have any additional benefit to my investing returns. And I am ready to change that view, if you can point me towards a reasonable explanation.
reo
24d ago
Do point how it will help in which area? Where do you drive cross-country in the world of investing/trading?
reo
25d ago
Depends upon which type of Efficient Market hypothesis you believe in:
- If you believe in Weak form EMH (all past information is there in the current price), then Technical Analysis is useless.
- If you believe in Semi-Strong EMH (all past and current public information is in the current price), then Fundamental Analysis is useless. But insider information (private information) is helpful in making profits, although it is illegal.
- If you believe in Strong form EMH (all past, current public and private information is there in the current price), then all analysis is useless.
If you are a practitioner, then you should be able to point out where it can really give an edge to a retail investor/trader (or please link to where you have already done so).
reo
2mo ago
You can say that. They are taking the bet, so they indeed think that they will make money in this. While you are shifting the risk of running out of money during your lifetime to them. Both sides get something out of the transaction.
reo
2mo ago
They are a means to have fixed income for you. And they are (usually) issued by life insurance companies.
Normal Term Life Insurance:
- at age 30, you pick a term life insurance to safeguard your family.
- You pay $1000 (called premium) to the insurance company every year and depending upon the risk of you dying, the company assesses its risk, and is ready to pay your family in case of your death, a sum assured amount like say $1 million.
- if you don't die in year 1, you pay $1000 next year (as premium) to continue having this benefit for your family.
- You do this for the term of your insurance policy. Say 30 years.
Normal Fixed Annuity:
- At age 60, you look at your portfolio and say that you need some kind of income throughout the rest of your life.
- You go back to the life insurance company, and pay it $1 million and the company says, okay now you got an income stream which we will pay throughout your life period. There are multiple options in an annuity and based upon the parameters, the company will pay higher or lower amount.
- If you don't have anyone around you, so you say to the company, I just want an income for my life, after that keep the amount with you. Depending upon how long the company thinks you may live, it can offer $60,000 a year all your life.
- If you have a kid(s) or some nephew/niece for whom you want to leave that $1M, you tell the company, I want an income stream while I live, then you give back that $1M to my nephew XYZ. So, they will reduce the amount to give to you, and will pay out say $30,000.
- Then there are variable annuities, inflation step up annuities, joint life annuity, joint life annuity with Principal back, etc.
reo
2mo ago
Plenty are there:
- double KB swings,
- double KB clean-squat-press,
- double clean-press,
- double press - 3 ways: both at same time, one below press other and alternate, one above and press other and alternate
- double front squat
- double KB deadlift - sumo (KB on insides) and KB on outside. etc.
reo
2mo ago
dunno, why it has an Elijah under the Juniper tree feeling.
The physical work I was referring was either:
-
Heavy Kettlebell Work (it could be 16K or 20K but not above that). The simplest is goto a shop, swap your credit card, pick it and walk back to your home. start with 10 minutes (= set a timer for 10 minutes, pick it with one hand, two hands, exchange hands while moving around, and move around without putting it down till the bell rings; that's all). Just for 1 week, do it daily 10-11 minutes. Do it any time in the day or night. Hell, do it before sending the first message into TheMotte. Seven Days.
-
Heavy Resistance Training: 70-80% of your Rmax, 10-20 reps (in whichever way) within 5 minutes each, for Squats, Benchpress, and Deadlift. If interested, add Overhead Press. The Intensity (in terms of weight, not in terms of inducing fatigue) should be high.
Walking, running in hospital, mandatory steps all are low intensity workouts <-- not what I was suggesting.
reo
2mo ago
This story looks very different from the one which you wrote a few months ago.
reo
2mo ago
ever tried the opposite? do lot of physical work and your depression may reduce or you may become too tired to be aware of your depression.
reo
2mo ago
-
Kettlebells. 12K for average woman, 16K for average man. At max, go one step down (8k, 12k respectively). You can do Rows, Floor Presses, Swings (will have to learn that), Squats (goblet, front, back). And you can just pick it up and go for some time / distance (Kettlebell Mile is also a thing).
-
Pullup bar (either get one which you can setup in the doorframe) or fix it outside.
-
one speed Rope.
reo
2mo ago
try Robert B Parker Spenser series. genre is hardboiled detective fiction. i started with Looking for Rachel Wallace. i am 7 down in the series.
hard SF: if you haven't, then Anathem and Seveneves.
reo
2mo ago
all LLMs actually trained on your essays, which is why they took your styles. even their alter-name AI is derived from your username. see.
Sensible Savings Saturday
Sustainable Spending Saturday
Savings and Spending Saturday
Savings Saturday
Securities Saturday
reo
2mo ago
if it is raining, then there must be a Rain-god who is calculating the humidity and temperature and doing the rains?
your logical leap is like that: a process is observed, so a specific doer-entity must exist behind it.
you are thinking inside the Indo-European grammatical structures, where every verb demands a subject. It is a local linguistic habit, not some universal metaphysical proof.
You are using a linguistic tautology - of course the subject exists, because the sentence required one.
reo
2mo ago
Once Chuang Chou dreamt he was a butterfly, a butterfly flitting and fluttering around, happy with himself and doing as he pleased. He didn't know he was Chuang Chou. Suddenly he woke up and there he was, solid and unmistakable Chuang Chou. But he didn't know if he was Chuang Chou who had dreamt he was a butterfly, or a butterfly dreaming he was Chuang Chou. Between Chuang Chou and a butterfly there must be some distinction! This is called the Transformation of Things.
from Burton Watson - The Complete Works of Chuang Tzu (Book 2, last passage).
The point being "I" is not stable between a dream, when it was butterfly, and the woken up form of Chuang Chou. So, one cannot latch on to that unstable "I".
reo
2mo ago
i have a problem with "I exist". what is the "I"? where is it? is it entirely built upon something which is there in a group of cells or atoms or has it come from somewhere else? Like what some other traditions claim to be - individual consciousness is part of the Universal Consciousness (like Advaita Vedanta). You need to explain if the self is some real, separable entiry or a convenient fiction the thinking tells itself.
Another thing: the self who thinks, and judges, and values things is not derived from just that bag of atoms bounded by the skin. It has inherited all the values from its upbringing, culture, education and then made up of that. Since your Self has been shaped by external values, the moral conclusions it reaches are not derivations from first principles - they are built from externalities.
This takes us into the problem of Ship of Theseus. If you replace each atom of your body with another, does your Self remain the same? What will happen when all those replaced atoms are placed similarly in front of you? which one is the real You? Where is the limit between You and the external World? Is the 10 year old self the same as the 30 year old self? is the thinking of those two selfs same? what is the common ground that binds the self and thinking and their values? And which Self, the 10-year Self or the 30-year Self, your framework wants to preserve? And is the transition between them a moral success or failure of your framework?
I have not even gone to the next step of "The self has value". Because that takes us into an Is-Ought problem.
reo
2mo ago
you will have to look at Lower Crossed syndrome. eg link. (i am not a pro physiotherapist). but the sequence would be something like this:
-
make the correct diagnosis. self-diagnosis can be done but keep in mind about repeating different tests to make the diagnosis more certain (don't rely on a single test). You can do videos of your posture and deeply feel your muscle while starting various movements (which one contracts first is important, which you check by feeling that muscle).
-
finding the reason of why the glutes are sleeping or why others are firing first or firing more. two big examples are long sitting hours and shallow breathing (less diaphragmatic breathing, more thoracic breathing). those would need to be corrected.
-
Then step by step approach to correction. This would include:
A. Relaxing the misfiring / early firing muscles - this you do with foam rolls, egg/tennis ball rolls, or hot fomentation over those particular muscles. This will relax these muscles and stop their inhibitory (automatic relaxing) effect on their opposite group (in this case, the glutes).
B. Relearn the correct firing pattern. The example exercises are: B1. Hip Hitch (the first one in your provided youtube) = stand on a step on one leg, let the other side of the pelvis drop below level, then Hike It Back Up using only the Gluteus medius, do 15 reps very slowly. B2. Side-lying hip abduction with pre-squeeze (squeeze glute first, leg slightly behind the body, toes neutral, take your leg up till your back muscle fires at which point you stop. B3. Single leg bridge with other hip flexed. B4. Dead bugs.
C. Progressive loading with correct sequence. Single leg Romanian deadlift.
reo
2mo ago
maybe you should look at misfiring of quadratus lumborum while your glutes are sleeping. Normally, glutes should fire first and after that QL should start its work. if the opposite is happening then you will have overactivity of QL which would get into spasm and pain. making the body learn the correct pattern will help in getting rid of this kind of pain.
It doesn't mean that your glutes or QL are weak (so making them stronger is not the solution). The firing mechanism has got reversed, that's all.
- timeline from first meeting (i was old, she was new joining at workplace) when i wasn't thinking about new relationship TO serious thinking (about) 2 months. From serious thinking to "Surely this is the one" (about) 3 months more.
- it was neck-to-neck for my case about seriousness about each other. (she proposed first though)
- mentioned above.
- No, there was nothing that was unacceptable. but my mentality has been - whatever was or could be a problem, i was / am sure to overcome it.
- when two people want each other in same order of magnitude (not lopsided like man wanting woman much more than she wanting him back OR vice versa), then there are so many things which become smooth. Then there is no need to do bookkeeping of who did what and how much for whom. I think, i only realize now when that sort of thing is not needed to be done and how easy it makes life for both the persons.
Some other thoughts:
- i had some sort of long list of things we realized for each other - at that time, i had put something like our relationship has reached level 1, 2, and so on for 18-19 levels till i counted. after that, i stopped.
- for us, time didn't matter. at one time, it was a possibility that we would not be able to see each other for a long time - and it was okay. it didn't change the internal feelings.
- it all was a gut feeling kind of thing. i can still remember the first day when i saw her coming into the common room and saying something to someone else (i can still remember the texture of the voice). maybe it can be labeled as serious attraction at first sight and first listen. all the mind's calculations were put aside by me (as such, i tend to be analyst, just not in this case). in this case, it was - this is really the one, whatever my mind says i will manage later. whether that is a good idea in all other cases, i don't know. this is n=1 situation.
To compare:
- this kind of thing had happened once before. but in that case, it was a feeling only in me and not the girl. Lopsided. Would have definitely failed later on, even if it would have been an arranged marriage sort of thing (Indian context).
- Other time, it was partly the opposite way. The girl had serious crush on me, and i didn't have (lopsided again). We still proceeded and it was a long drawn painful experience for each of us (she remained always insecure about me, being very jealous of my normal interactions with other people, lot of long drawn mega-fights taken to extremes). Eventually, parting away was the only way out. But it remained a really bad experience overall.
- few in-betweens, timepasses you can say.
In short, my personal mantras would be: nearly equal levels of attraction with each other, no deep insecurities in either of the persons, gut feeling and not completely mind / excel calculations.
even if i bypass many of such posts, it is good to see this being done here regularly (as do many other posters). Not everything has to be for the keeps and polished and shiny.
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