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4hr ago
He’s almost certainly right that chain migration vastly trumps that now. It’s some Colombian family slow immigrating their entire family to the US versus an American bringing a girl home now. Sometimes they even just do it for money and the marriage is fake. There is an active market for that in Miami.
Trump importing a foreign eastern mail order bride is a very small part of the market.
We’ve already imported the 15% of non-Americans who can now bring in their local ties. It’s not foreign brides being brought in any more. It’s Ilhan Omar bringing in her brother.
In which case money isn’t even the right metric but it would filter out a lot.
You only feel this way because you don’t like a lot of the current immigration to this country and chain migration. If it was a Heritage American bringing back even the occasional slightly brown girl you would feel this way. Which I agree with.
In practice your probably fine with the Family Guy immigration (system)[https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/family-guy-skin-color-chart]
There is some talk that with increasing migration that country of origin easy visas won’t exists anymore and everyone will have to be screened.
We probably should get rid of spousal citizenship at this point. And its because it brings in people I don’t want and not some Southern Boy in the military bringing back a German wife.
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6hr ago
Agree. And honestly many are probably not bad people who abuse the system so play the “empathy” card. The Twitter algo has been shoving down my throat a 30 year old white Argentinian girl with a bf. Yes as a MAGA person I don’t have a big problem with her staying.
But it’s the NYT labeling enforcing Tourist Visas as not permanent Visas that rubs me the wrong way. It’s mostly their tone we it’s assumed the reader knows this is “obviously a bad thing”.
We have procedures for doing things for a reason. And she only applied for a 6 month tourist Visa not residency. And we did a shorter review of her background for a Visa because it was a contract that she would come visit and leave. It wasn’t an offer of citizenship which if we are offering citizenship we should do a very long review process of her application.
Society does need to have processes that it follows for everything it does. This is just normal process following governance. And NYT tone is basically “Mr. Reader you should clearly understand that enforcing tourist visas to a short visit is clearly proof that Trump is literally Hitler”.
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8hr ago
The older I get the more I hate data and academic papers and just want to trust my instincts. Because it’s virtually impossible to read thru studies and figure it out; and more times than not it seems like my instincts end up being correct after someone does a thorough literature review.
I enjoy cooking. I can do it as a hobby. There are a lot of famous male chefs and my gut says more than females. Some reason evolution made me enjoy cooking and I feel like I know plenty of men who enjoy cooking.
There does seem to be something with meat especially that men enjoy doing. Men love barbecuing. And men doing the hunting, starting a fire, and making meat safer to eat is a story I can believe we did a lot of evolving around. Girls do seem to have a stronger desire to do things like baking. So perhaps your statistics are picking up activities like that.
Perhaps it’s a pre-civilization trait that was ditched in most agricultural societies but is still a significant gene in the male population.
Cooking doesn’t feel like work to me. It probably would feel like work if I did a 12 hour shift in a factory, but in white collar world where your not physically tired it seems like a hobby for a lot of men.
The NYT is currently running articles about ICE picking up people overstaying tourist Visas at airports. I read these articles and think yes that is common sense enforcement of our nations laws. And a lot of the people overstaying tourist’s Visas I personally like. Most went thru some vetting to get approved for a tourist’s visas. And they will fill broke our laws.
There is a very good reason to deport people who overstay tourist’s visas. The reason is you want to issue a lot of tourist Visas because you want people to see America and spend money here. And a lot of people want to visit America that get turned down for Visas. Every short term visa should not be permanent residency. The US turns down a large % of tourist Visas they view as high risks. I want to let those people in and I hope they leave after 3 weeks.
Also isn’t it illegal for a lawyer to advise a client on covering up a crime and helping clients break the way? Lawyers seem to be bragging about doing that in the article.
The alternative to not enforcing tourists Visa restrictions is either (1) not issuing tourist Visas or (2) open borders/end of nation state
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10hr ago
Cooking isn’t gendered coded. Different places and different times had different genders cooking.
Professional chef if anything is male coded slightly. Grilling meat is heavily male coded.
Cleaning is feminine coded. Not cooking.
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10hr ago
Once you have enough wealth and some discipline you don’t need an emergency fund. You can use a taxable brokerage and margin for same day payments. Fidelity even has a debit card that automates it. Or slower you can transfer to you bank account and it clears within 24 hours for payment.
If you have 300k in taxable brokerage you should have no problem getting 30k for an emergency and that’s without needing to do a taxable event immediately.
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10hr ago
Duration looks a little off to me. A better definition would be the interest rate sensitivity for a given bond that would be equivalent to a 0 coupon bond maturity X years into the future. X is called the duration.
But for an average guy the definition used is good enough.
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11hr ago
My guess would be 50-70% of people really enjoy cooking. So it’s part leisure activity. It makes sense prepping food is enjoyable because it has evolutionary advantages.
But some people do not enjoy it. And a strict economic sense wages can be high enough to mostly outsource food prep today and justify it as money saving versus their wage level.
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15hr ago
Is this true? Obama would seem to be the leading brand. And he definitely played the DEI game.
The counter force to DEI tarnishes my accomplishments is tribal loyalty feels like a human personality trait.
More than a few big donations to HBC despite probably having intelligence to realize HBC were essentially dead as institutions posts affirmative action.
“ Robert F. Smith has given over $134 million to HBCUs, famously paying off Morehouse College's entire 2019 graduating class debt and launching the Student Freedom Initiative to support STEM students at dozens of HBCUs.”. - pulling from google AI summary.
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15hr ago
Ya I wanted to avoid the main thread with a hbd posts. And keep it simple to just whether Elon crossed a line here.
Though if I want to defend “magic dirt theorists” which I think broadly falls under the Why Nations Fail authors Nobel……a few places have had temporarily cursed dirt that needed a witch doctors magic. Poland, China, Japan were all places that just needed a good magic spell within the last 150 years.
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15hr ago
Think Musks just crossed the line into actual racisms. But maybe I missed a more direct quote a while ago.
“There is no such thing as “magic ground” that makes some places prosperous and some not!
If you teleported the people of Japan to anywhere else, that place would become Japan.“
- Elon Musks Twitter
As far as I know historically Japan is bad dirt. Low in natural resources etc, but for a certain age the small island seems to have birthed empires (England/Japan).
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1d ago
Throughout all of human history the world has been indifferent to male struggles. Nothing has changed here. It’s just how this has become institutionalized into politics and law.
Sperm is cheap.
You are forgetting about the tax rate. Georgists aren’t talking about the current rates. They want to capture 100% of the land value. So the appraised land value on that property would be a little lower than market value but the tax rate my guess would be 3-4x. (Florida is like 1.2-1.5% of property value. Real estate typically trades around a 5 cap, but that’s post current taxes. So a LVT is likely about 6.5%)
I initially used the Mandarin Oriental in Miami as an example of how this could occur. Since construction costs on the prior building is probably 200m. They just tore it down which means land values increased over property values. And are building much taller (from 10-15 stories to 50+).
Under the current regime they would have paid about 1.5% tax on 200m or $3m a year. Under an LVT their taxes would have been going up as land values increased. At the point of tearing it down the land value would need to be worth 200m but under LVT their tax would be 13m a year (estimate on 6.5% rate).
The tear down point wouldn’t be the painful time since without tax you’re still tearing it down. It’s the point where the raw land value climbed to 150m and your tax is like 9.75m. When you built the Hotel it was like 30m land + 170m capex for a total value of 200m. Your income on the hotel isn’t increasing because land values went up because you still have the same fixed supply of hotel rooms. But now your tax has increased a lot and is capturing most of your profits.
This is actually a fair description of land values in Miami. They have appreciated 5-15X in the last 15 years.
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1d ago
My understanding is the Chinese ghosts cities eventually all became populated with a few exceptions that end up on zero hedges for bubble doom porn. China did move an insane amount of people from rural life to urban life in half a generation.
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1d ago
Do the majority of software developers do math? I don’t do software so I don’t know, but my guess is software developers doing math stuff was a niche.
Obviously, 50 years ago every software engineer did math.
That obviously wouldn’t be the right metric. Conversely Pittsburgh’s local news station reports on crypto like 3 days a year but the Pittsburgh Pirates probably 200-220 times a year (162 games plus less in off-season).
CNBC itself is a fairly niche channel. Certain communities watch CNBC 100% of the time everyday. Basically any trading desks has it on mute everyday. The average American watches it never. The wealthy watch it occasionally. I ran this thru AI. CNBC has 114,000 average viewers. ESPN has 850,000 average viewers. Obviously ESPN has a lot more viewers. Being a smaller amount of a big channel can be the same as a small part of a small channel. And then the Pirates are a large part of a small channel (local TV).
Mostly just wanted to point out that the average guy working as an electrician in Topeka doesn’t pay much attention to crypto and there are a lot more of those guys than highly educated, wealthy, and tech or tech adjacent that follow crypto a lot more
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1d ago
No it wouldn’t. Ordinary property taxes do total value. A LVT does land (presumably at a high rate).
In this case a property tax would do the tax at market value as built. Existing Capex can get hurt bad in a lvt.
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2d ago
Aren’t you changing sources? Your other sources said 58% of people out of the labor market are on disability while the amount of people out of the labor force has increased dramatically. If you are going to argue something you should use the same definition and data sets.
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2d ago
If stores price in shrinkage then that just means the shoplifter is stealing from their neighbor who does not shoplift and is paying 3% more because you are stealing.
Honestly seems worse to me. Better to steal from evil corp than your neighbor John. And economics would tend to indicate you are stealing from John.
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2d ago
And this is just a poll. Public opinion polls are known to be flawed and tweaking questions can get much different results. Scott Sumner pointing this out a decade ago that polling makes no sense because of wide differences between polls.
The rising amount of disability makes absolutely zero sense. We do not have more disabled people today than we did 50 years ago when more people worked in factories where they could get hurt.
Increasing retirees does make sense. Almost everyone I know has family money because America the American upper class has gotten rich so formal work isn’t necessary. But that doesn’t explain surging disability when people have fewer disabilities today than in the 1970’s. It makes much more sense today your disabled when your discouraged than that there are no jobs.
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2d ago
The thing with having an advanced society is having technocratic government that is efficient and knows what works and what does not work. And this idea in our technocracy is solidly in the does not work camp. I don’t think you should say old failed ideas can never be tried again but you shouldn’t do that very often. The point of education is to develop best practices.
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2d ago
Am I taking crazy pills - “7% of men saying they aren’t in the labor market is because they can’t find a job”. That’s a huge amount of men.
The job market sucks. I’ve worked for prop trading firms and they can pay extremely well. And I went thru a period of burn out or perhaps something like YIPs in baseball. I couldn’t hit a fastball anymore and make money and needed a break. So I looked for opportunities. Even with solid degrees (Ivy engineering + M-7 MBA and prior top performer) no one would even interview me.
Now I’ve rebuilt a solid 3 year track record and it seems like I can hit a fastball again. So I guess that’s better than taking a job, but I would still consider the right opportunity at a reasonable salary for economic security. In my experience the anecdotes are true and I have zero idea how I could add more valuable traits. The traits I have are elite. The anecdotes of a lot of people saying the job market sucks appears to be true.
That’s the bigger thing to me with the NYT article than just the culture war talk on appropriate levels of immigration and pathways. A nation does have to have procedures. And a tourist visa isn’t a residency visa. I’m not even in America right now but will be soon. I’ve come across many in S American who didn’t get a tourists visa. Why don’t they get them? Many do overstay.
We could give away tourist visas like chocolate on Halloween if everyone who got a tourist visa leaves. It hurts the next person applying for a visa when someone overstays.
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