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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3855 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 2, 2026

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In June 2024, "Only around 20 percent of respondents want the Islamic Republic to remain in power, according to the survey." I think that number went even lower after the recent violent suppression of protests.

The US sees it more like intervening in a messy domestic dispute, where the male partner (Islamic Republic Government) keeps threatening to get a gun and shoot the police, the police (USA) keeps saying, "Don't do it or we'll have to come in there," and the wife and kids (80% of Iranian people) are hoping that the police intervene but are afraid of getting beaten up again.

Do you think that those 80% of Iranians are ultimately in favor of a government whose policies would be acceptable to the USA/Israel? Or would a hypothetical liberal Persian democracy still have to accept a world in which they can be bombed at will if their democracy were to go into an unapproved direction? Ok you've killed the abuser, is she allowed to get herself a gun to keep herself safe in the future?

And more to the point, how does she credibly tell you she won't get a gun in the future? What promise would be accepted?

I think those 80% of Iranians would be in favor of a government less focused on supplying their proxies with weapons and more focused on water conservation and management. Which in and of itself is a win for the US.

The American public just elected a government on the premise that they would focus on reducing inflation and avoid foreign adventurism. That government just instituted a policy of kinetic regime change in Iran, and the CPI is identical to the September before the election.

Would an Iranian democracy be allowed to be democratic, or would it be subject to bombing? How would such a government promise not to develop nuclear weapons in a way that the USA/Israel would trust?

How do you know Japan will not develop nuclear weapons and attack the US? Of all the countries in the world they have the most right. But to suggest such a thing today is laughable.

It would not have been such a laughable thing in the 1940s.

Things can happen. The world can change. America made Japan the way it is now, we can do the same to Iran if we wanted.

Iranian average IQ (IIRC estimated between 99 and 105) does enable all sorts of things that weren't feasible in Iraq or Afghanistan.

It would be interesting to see how Iranian culture compares to Japanese in context during some kind of major reconstruction.

But the US of 2026 is not the US of 1946. I don't think there will be any titanic reconstruction effort in Iran. Here on the homefront we're already panicking about budgets, spending, and general sclerosis. Show me that we can build a rail system here before we speak seriously about reforging Iran nearer to our heart's desire.

Is the 99-105 figure accurate or coming from highly filtered groups (people in Iran who actually take the test). I guess I probably assumed Iran would be a less extreme India with very high IQ groups and some low IQ peasants. If they are a true 103 IQ country then they’ve probably hit below their weight for centuries.

Persia did respectably for itself, and Islam tends to make civilizations punch below their weight over a long enough time scale for a variety of reasons.

I don’t really believe 103 but upper nineties seems plausible. Russia has a similar IQ with shitty broken institutions and poverty.

Upper 90’s would be my guess. Grok gives me a very wide range. I think most people have ran into Persians enough to believe a sizable elite exists at typical western elite levels.

A lot of brown countries seem to have larger IQ spreads than western nations. I think India has maybe 200m people as smart as anyone in the world but likely a billion lower caste people at close to Africa levels. A country with that level of diversity is likely never going to be a partner you can trust on the world stage. A country with >100 average plus a sizable 130 IQ (people that create tech like nuke) can do things on the world stage. Basically it gives you administrative stability but also for doing “stuff” both the smart general class and competent grunts on the ground. That would be a very useful country to have America aligned.

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