sickamore
4mo ago
wow. this is leaving me with a lot to think about. Maybe programming wasn’t the right career, and i should embrace the management? hmmm
sickamore
4mo ago
hmm. I think I almost do too, but seem ok with shape rotation, though i’m way better at math. Interesting hypothesis
sickamore
4mo ago
the holiday inn apparently housed immigrants?
seems interesting what Irish people are saying. for example UFC Champ Conor McGregor tweeting to the effect of “do something immediately”, and more PC ones saying this is alt-right
Is there a reason we haven’t seen this kind of reaction in UK or France?
sickamore
5mo ago
Do you think people posting "Lies" are saying that because they remember, or even know, about these things you listed?
Not to say US / Israel / any other military are without blame for the lack of trust. I agree, US military has lied in the past, and the press/government/etc lied with it (possibly in other orders, like papers lied first, apparently, for the Spanish-American war). Not saying they are without sin.
But it does feel to me that the winningest move here is to not play at all (not fight). Failing that, don't say anything while playing and hopefully you win.
It's honestly kind of depressing how much information, proof, etc Israel/IDF provides, and still cannot win trust. Of course it doesn't help when random mid-level Israeli bureaucrats tweet random posts of unverified bs that then gets debonnnked.
Like the Shifa Hospital situation the last few days. Images and videos of IDF bringing in supplies etc for patients in the hospital: "lies, they didn't actually do this!" "just for the video/photo-op!" etc. Of course, they ARE purposeful photo-ops that are trying to counter the anti-Israeli perspective.
And then anti-Israel people will post some link PROVING that Israel "lied" in the past, but then you read the link and it is IDF claiming responsibility for some error. "This is why IDF definitely did fire rockets at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza" etc etc. And of course then pictures come out and ... onto the next story!
It's the same as how US public comms is treated. Oh US DoD denies the casualty numbers claimed by a militia that just attacked a US base? "Lies!" "This means the casualty numbers are true!" When US DoD says, in the same manner, in the same channels, that they did something that can be seen as detrimental, like say they suffered some injuries, like US base got attacked - then what US is saying is of course true.
Everyone here probably knows this and has seen it play out. I'm just a little, idk, depressed and ranty about this.
(and I'm not ruling out that Israel does / can/ has lied about military actions, and god knows IDF has done their share of morally bad things in the past. But there just seems to be nothing israel can do to win over trust. But such is the tiktok PR battle we find ourselves in today.)
((IMO: US, Israel, and any faction that finds itself in a conflict and viewed as the more powerful "oppressor", should just keep silent and never say anything. Did Saudi announce things when fighting Houthis in Yemen? Or Assad when killing hundreds of thousands of people? I am no)
sickamore
5mo ago
this feels similar to the claim that “Black Women are the Most Educated Group in USA”, when actually the stat is taken from the fact that among their own racial group, black women earn a disproportionate % of post-grad degrees. https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1720190597045100626?s=20
sickamore
5mo ago
Iran-backed militias keep striking US positions in Syria, Iraq, etc. By various counts up to 40-70+ times in the last 2-3 weeks. Another recently one I just saw - US denied the high casualties claimed by the possible assailants
In response, US has done a handful (3-5?) retaliatory strikes on those militias' positions. Apparently one of the strikes hit some IRGC commanders/troops. I also read that apparently Biden opted for lesser attacks, to prevent escalation.
Oh and US might unfreeze $10billion worth of funds to Iran? For some reason? Were the six billion dollars going to Iran through Qatar actually delivered, or held up?
On the Lebanese-Israel border, IDF continues to trade attacks with Hezbollah. Both sides have sustained casualties, though Hezbollah apparently has more (they publish photos of "martyrs" they died, on twitter at least).
However, it seems like the speeches by the Hezbollah leader has not been very inflammatory. Their once-expected entry into the war with Israel still hasn't come, despite these border skirmishes. Maybe the US presence in the area, with two carrier groups and other assets, is actually a real deterrent here? It definitely feels like Hezbollah has to say they are with Hamas against Israel/US, but won't actually put themselves on the line, perhaps rationally in this case. Would Hezbollah leadership be forced to do more or risk losing control of its troops? I read a theory that the Hamas operation on Oct. 7 was mostly lead by younger commanders, without the support of the higher up, older leadership. Could Hezbollah run into this situation as well?
What do you guys think the possibility of this Israel-Gaza situation exploding to include Hezbollah formally? What about US-Iran?
My take:
-
US-Iran will continue as currently, though honestly US forward positions in Eastern Syria and Iraq are not sustainable in my opinion. They should either be heavily reinforced, or withdrawn, as the bases there are mostly unable to adequately return fire or defend themselves IMO.
-
Hezbollah will probably keep doing what they are doing, unless something really breaks. Some Hamas leader just recently said that Hezbollah would enter the war with Israel if Hamas is completely destroyed, saying it's a "red line". Though I distinctly remember Hezbollah saying Israel invading Gaza was a red line as well that couldn't be crossed. But then again...
sickamore
5mo ago
also it seems like before, say in 2014, western journalists would post on twitter about Hamas operating in/around the hospital, but then immediately delete those posts. Unclear if deleting because of the abuse they received on twitter, or because of Hamas intimidation. Probably more likely from the latter.
It seems like western journalists are both less present in Gaza, and less likely to post about Hamas misdeeds online at all.
sickamore
5mo ago
It's highly likely Hamas has some significant operations based out of Al-Shifa Hospital.
If you read the history from 2008-9 and 2014 wars, every outlet from NYT to WaPo, organizations from Human Rights Watch to Amnesty International, have reported on Hamas militants being in the hospital, hamas leaders seen there, Hamas spokespeople talking to media there (using a fake backdrop of destroyed buildings), and Hamas using the hospital for torture and imprisonment (Amnesty).
Basically Hamas knows Israel won't bomb the hospital, which seems to be the largest hospital in that area. And thus, they base operations there with impunity.
In 2007, Hamas and Fatah fought in/near that hospital, though at much smaller scale (apparently only one wounded from each faction).
sickamore
5mo ago
oh this guy! lol. Wasn't this hearing so bad that he withdrew from the nomination to Norway?
Anyway, he's the current Ambassador to Greece, which given his Greek-background seems much more appropriate.
sickamore
5mo ago
He's a direct cited source in the Al-Shifa Hospital wiki page, specifically described in the 2014 war section and is the 31 and 32nd citations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shifa_Hospital#cite_ref-31):
American journalist Max Blumenthal was in Gaza during the 2014 war. Blumenthal wrote that doctors were burnt out after weeks of amputations and shrapnel extractions, with some "on the brink of insanity". One of the hospital directors screamed "Can’t the world see that we’re human?".[31] Blumenthal reported that many refugees had setup tents beside the hospital during the war.[32]
To be honest i haven't dug into it, but seems like he was added and cited as an anti-"Hamas uses this hospital as a base" voice? Even the citation itself seems biased, and doesn't even include the full book?!
oh yeah, I don't think we're in disagreement here. I'm just showing with the State Dept link that this isn't a secret.
re: McCain, that's funny, but also I'm surprised if Denise Bauer or whomever was trying to be the Ambassador to France had not been to France. Maybe makes sense if it's to Sweden or Luxembourg?
I think, and maybe also your point, that ambassadors to smaller-but-potentially-important countries might also not have been there previously. E.g. Jonathan Pratt was the last US Ambassador to Djibouti, and had postings from Pakistan, DR Congo, R. of Congo, Jordan, Sudan... but I highly doubt he'd have ever been to, or needed to have been to, Djibouti prior to taking up the post there.
Even below those positions (i.e. less known professional staff that support the Ambassadors and Consulate Generals), career Foreign Service folks are rotated around frequently in my experience (grew up abroad, had a lot of interaction with local consulate folks). For example someone who was the business/economy attache was moved to a post in South East Asia after 5 years at the consulate in my hometown. They got 6 months of essentially full-time language learning before moving over there to begin the new post, and of you go! Again, no reason they would've needed to have been to e.g. Hanoi or Phnom Penh before getting a post there.
sickamore
5mo ago
arent they doing that? remove hamas, demilitarize gaza like they did west bank. West Bank is much wealthier than Gaza.
sickamore
5mo ago
Israel provided jobs to gazans before this. West bank is noticeably wealthier / HDI / whatever your metric is comparee to Gaza. I think Gaza would economically grow it fully embraced Israeli economic partnership
sickamore
5mo ago
what kind of hard punch you thinking? 1948? 1967? 1973? I mean were these just not hard enough punches?
sickamore
5mo ago
what about the Rafah crossing with Egypt? its not like israel surrounds Gaza
sickamore
5mo ago
how reliable is max blumenthal? seems like hes always writing about “51 days in gaza” but wasnt actually there, etc.
do the citations substantiate his piece? sorry, have read his stuff before and am less trusting
sickamore
5mo ago
totally forgot about this, but now remember it so clearly. did not seem like a big issue at this time for this idea, perhaps because Chase was hesitant and it took the entire episode to get to this ending? Because it’s just a kiss? Because the requester has the profile of a typical “victim” (young underaged girl)?”
sickamore
5mo ago
not a secret the nice-but-unimportant ambassadorships go to politically favored people (donors mostly, but not required).
See this list of current US ambassadors, and compare which ones have type column of "Career" (career diplomats, rising up through the Foreign Service usually), and which ones are "other" (usually cushier locales, usually countries US already has good relations with, does not require an experienced foreign service careerist to head because there is no work or work is handled fine by others).
For example, Ted Kennedy's widow is the ambassador to Austria, while JFK's daughter Caroline Kennedy is the ambassador to Australia (previously to Japan as well). Both of these would be politically favored IMO, and campaigned for Obama/Biden.
Donor example would be Denise Bauer, current ambassador to France (and Monaco). Previously Ambassador to Belgium. Donated 4.3 million to Obama, and other money to Democrats in general. I'm surprised it only takes 4.3 million TBH? But probably is fun to hang out in Paris and send your kids to American School of Paris there.
Compare with the resume of the current ambassador to China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._Nicholas_Burns)
sickamore
5mo ago
IDF making a lot of progress with minimal casualties https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1721779627251695752?s=20
IDF arrived to the center of Gaza city. Both sides are surprised in a kind of mirror image. Hamas from how relatively Hamas defense lines were penetrated snd collapsed IDF because the advance was relatively fast and not too many casualties, which are in Gaza around 30.
(likely conservative estimate) map of IDF presence / progress: https://x.com/War_Mapper/status/1721646940780191941?s=20
sickamore
5mo ago
Today, whether its harvard business school or Cornell or Columbia, the biggest growth clubs are the small businese investment clubs.
everyone with MBAs, who dont wanna do big corps, seem to wanna buy a cashflowing mom and pop business. opportunities might have been arb’d away
sickamore
5mo ago
best advice is to study cyclicality.
FB at 92 was a great buy.
oil stocks at negative oil price in 2020 was a great buy. uranium even now is a good buy. maybe even silver stocks?
i dont think you’d make as much, on a 5 year time horizon, if you out all into QQQ or google or something
sickamore
5mo ago
well he hangs with other winners of capitalism.
compared to a group of Caesars, being a normal person is bad.
comparison is the thief of joy. i assume this contributed to his psyche. It definitely would to mine!
live your life, dont compare with others. ignorance truly is bliss
cuz US is on magic dirt, obviously.
if only those Indians in India could come stand on US soil, they’d become more competent in a flash!
/s obviously
off the top of my head: 1: are they paid ok by local standards? 2: do they have examples of promotion in their roles/teams/orgs, or are they all looking for the next gig on the side? 3: whats the management situation over there? affects everything listed here obviosly 4: hiring bar is low? 5: bad training?
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