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Notes -
I really enjoyed the latest Starship test flight.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lFkqZF-Ss7o&t=6250s
It's fairly widely accepted that the most difficult and most experimental parts of what SpaceX is hoping to accomplish are the re-entry and landing of the orbital vehicle, so actually demonstrating the ability to complete those tasks (albeit imperfectly) is a big step forward. Also high up on the difficulty scale is a precision landing of the booster, and while we don't know if it landed with the necessary precision, demonstrating the capability to do the soft landing on the booster is also a big step forward.
ETA: Given this is the second flight to put Starship into a suborbital trajectory with orbital velocity, I would recommend @ArjinFerman get his checkbook ready.
I did notice they're making progress between launches a while ago, so the checkbook has long been ready. I doubt I'm wrong about my broader point about SpaceX collapsing, and the revolutionary impact of reusability being a house of cards.
What would convince you otherwise? You've already rejected lower prices as evidence in favor of a conspiracy theory about price dumping, and rejected the apparent conclusions of NASA and DOD inspectors who get inside access to the books to verify the business health for government awards eligibility.
Time. If this goes on for the coming years, and investors are satisfied with whatever they're getting out of SpaceX, that will prove me wrong about Elon's unsustainability. If they go on to build a moon base, like they're contracted to, that will BTFO everything I said, and I will write a massive self-flagellating apology. If they pull of Mars, I'll go on one of those Catholic pilgrimage hiking trails, and actually self-flagellate, as an act of contrition for ever doubting daddy Elon.
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