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Remember that the post-2020 US election Time article "The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election"? Somewhere between a victory lap and credit-claiming at a time it was generally thought Trump's political prospects were dead, it was a rare look behind the scenes of retroactively-admitted coordinated political obstruction and shaping efforts.
It was also the article with the memorable distinction of-
Well, the New York Times on Sunday published a more pre-emptive form of democratic fortification: The Resistance to a New Trump Administration Has Already Started.
The article in short is a look at different wings of the Democratic Party apparatus, and steps they are taking in anticipation of a Trump victory to foil the predicted efforts of the 2025 Project. Some of these fears seem a good deal less grounded than others- Trump has been an abortion moderate such that it's hard to see why a Democratic governor would need to stock years of abortion supplies in a state warehouse beyond political theater- but then the article is quite likely a form of political theater. As far as election-year advertising goes, it's both a 'here are all the horrible things that could happen' fear campaign-
-with the ACLU specifically focusing on four areas of potential lawfare-
-but all with a back-edge 'but we thwarted him before and can do it again' of tribal-protection promise.
Not necessarily optimistic, but a 'we will fight for you' solidarity / call for support framing.
While there is the occasional (potentially deliberate) amusing word choice in ways that anyone who has used the term the Cathedral might appreciate-
The core strategies include the following, none of which are particularly surprising but which are good to see identified clearly in advance:
-Passing executive actions in the Biden administration before certain timelines so that Trump can't immediately revert them
-Litigation waves to tie things in court, with recruitment of sympathetic plaintiffs with likely standing already occuring
-Implicitly by virtue of the acknowledged past strategies and current participants, more protests
-More explicitly legal preparations to prevent/limit federal intervention in protests
-A national-scale counter-ICE network to disrupt immigration raids
-Pre-emptively doing self-auditing of activist group finances in preparation of politically motivated IRS scrutiny
-Various state-based nullification theory application (such as 'inter-state commerce doesn't apply to FDA if I already have the goods in-state')
-Use of Never-Trump 'ex-Republicans' groups as part of the Democratic network, especially the Principles First organization.
(Principles First was a Never Trump wing of the Republican Party associated with Liz Cheney that started in 2022 during the anti-Trump former Republican establishment's efforts to reassert control / torpedo Trump's post-presidential prospects by cooperating with the Democrat-led impeachment trial. Since then, and her fall from the Republican Party, it's been casting itself as an alternative to CPAC. Interestingly it also works in concert with Ranked Choice voting lobbying. (In the US, ranked choice voting is often, but not always, associated with the Democratic Party, at least in the sense of pushing for it in Red / Purple, but not Blue, states.)
None of this is unique, unusual, or dangerous. Leftist NGOs and Democratic governors/AGs preparing for a potential second term of Trump. Sinister-sounding quotes like "controlling the flow of information" and "democracy-proofing our institutions" but nothing actually out of the ordinary in terms of real actions. I'll remind you that the vast majority of the actual escalation has come from Republicans. Remember J6? Remember "the election was stolen!!!" 70% of Republicans still believe that crap.
Trump will try some hamfisted executive orders, which will get massacred in the courts like much of his EO's did in his first term. He'll declare victory anyways, and the base will love him because they desire the appearance of "owning the libs" more than any actual substantive policy changes.
Where are the republicans inventing new legal theories to prosecute their political opponents? Where are the republicans forcing businesses to boycott their opponents organizations? Where are the republicans using partisan organizations assessments of their ideological opposites as a justification to enact a domestic spying program?
I don't think this is an accurate description of any of the Trump prosecutions. It mainly gets levelled at the falsification of business records case, on the theory that Bragg used a federal crime as the enhancer to kick it up to a first degree charge. But this isn't accurate. He used a state crime - New York Election Law Section 17-152. That charge itself refers to influencing an election by "unlawful means", and the unlawful means referred to in this context are violations of Federal election finance law, but my understanding is that it's well established by precedent that you can use federal crimes in relation to this statute. As always IANAL and I might be wrong. But as far as I can tell, although it's a bit of a convoluted approach to take, it's also one that specifically avoids using laws in unprecedented ways.
Republicans however certainly have invented new legal theories. They invented a new legal theory to overturn the 2020 election using competing slates of electors and having Pence refuse to certify disputed results. They invented a new theory to defend Trump by claiming Presidents have absolute immunity to criminal prosecution.
And, look, there's nothing wrong with inventing a new legal theory. You try it out, you test it in court, you see if it flies. And I think it's kind of natural for it to be the Republicans who are testing new ground here - the courts have become increasingly right wing (especially SCOTUS), and those new court majorities have different ideas about how laws should be interpreted. But if you're going to take the position that advocating novel legal theories for political purposes is some kind of no-no, then you really ought to be pointing the finger in the other direction.
The idea that trump reimbursing his lawyer for paying stormy Daniels to sign an NDA constitutes a misreported campaign expense is, however, totally a novel legal theory.
Notably, the Republican Party decided not to do this. Like, there weren’t competing slates of electors. Mike Pence had openly said he wouldn’t go along with that plan. The most partisan red state where Trump disputed the results had a state government- made up of all republicans- who told him to eff off. In fact, republican elected officials who could have turned it into a matter for the courts chose to admit trump lost. Not as a general rule, as a universal one.
I’ve yet to see even the smallest of small democrats opposing the lawfare, targeting of conservative groups, criminal cases invented out of whole cloth, attempts at censorship, etc.
What are the new legal theories embraced by the 6-3 majority on scotus? Name them. Their most controversial, and predictable, decision was dobbs, which even liberals mostly admitted would be legally correct. Pretty much all the precedent overturned by the changing balance of the court has been in the form of things like changing the constitutional test applied in x specific situation- hardly novel legal theories.
The closest thing to a novel legal theory pushed out of conservative courts would be kaczmyrak’s decision on mifepristone, which got stayed immediately and slapped down by scotus.
No it's not. The John Edwards case ran on the exact same theory.
Parts of the party refused to go along with that plan, sure. And they mostly got purged for disloyalty to the guy who spearheaded it.
Off the top of my head, the Major Questions Doctrine is one obvious example of a new legal theory adopted by SCOTUS. It's also highly likely they will be soon adopting a new legal theory in the area of administrative law, abandoning the current Chevron Deference legal theory. Again, I have 0 problem with them doing that, sometimes existing precedent is plain wrong and generally speaking I think the current court has made pretty good rulings.
ABC:
Hm, but it didnt work to find Edward guilty.
Not only didn’t it work but the DOJ and FEC saw it as a resounding defeat. They viewed the matter as settled.
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