This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
This.
Anybody who didn't watch the second half walked away (justifiably) thinking "the President is senile." And the number of short clips of Biden being utterly lost coming out of this will never cease. Trump didn't do anything we haven't seen him do before so any messaging along the lines of "unfit!" or "threat to democracy" really come across as old hat.
If Trump could get off of his weird sticking points (NATO funding, who said what about suckers and losers, etc.) he could've absolutely deleted Biden tonight. As it is, it's still probably a coin flip race and now the narrative - for a week or so - will be "Will Biden drop out." Any way you slice it, Biden's objective is probably to win back votes he probably tentatively had until this evening and Trump can more or less rest on structural advantage. The only way that shifts (structurally, I mean) is if the economy picks up some super unexpected good numbers.
Anyways - the two most important people in the election are now Kamala Harris and Jerome Powell. Where is my Alex Jones bat phone?
If Biden is depending on the economy getting better between now and November, there's no chance.
I don’t think it matters. People’s views are by and large locked in on the economy. I don’t think a bounce in the economy in the next few months will matter.
There's no room for a bounce.
PA is the most likely turning point state. Unemployment in PA is at 3.4%; living here I can verify that I pass multiple billboards from big businesses looking for workers, and every small business I know is desperate for help.
There is no functional room to improve that number between now and November. In 2012 unemployment declined from 9.6 in 2010 to 8.1 in 2012. That was a difference I felt all around me. We probably don't have room for even a .5% reduction this year. Inasmuch as there's an industrial reserve army at all, it's people who have dropped out of the workforce, and getting them back in is a five year project at least.
The actual economic issues we see, primarily housing and healthcare, aren't going to be addressed. Probably can't be, definitely not things Democrats are interested in doing.
There's no economic way out for Biden.
Surely the economic way out for Biden is that the economic vibes continue to drift in the direction of the actual state of the economy. Unemployment doesn't need to drop further in PA, voters just need to realise that it is at 3.4%
The election is close in a world where the median voter thinks the economy sucks. If the median voter realises that the economy does not, in fact, suck, then Biden wins on fundamentals.
I wrote that possibility off at this point. I just don't see any evidence that Biden is going to get better at selling his policies to the American people all of a sudden.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Yeah Biden looked like he was on death's door for the first 10 minutes, and then warmed somewhat into like... D+ form instead of the F---- that he began with.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link