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Of the major Democratic candidates waiting in the wings, it seems clear that Newsom is the only viable candidate. And if you’re Newsom, why would you possibly replace Biden now?
This is likely the only shot at President the candidate that (theoretically) replaces Biden has. If Trump wins, the loss against such a villain will serve as the ultimate embarrassment and humiliation for the Dem nominee. Even if they argue that it was Biden’s fault, the base is unlikely to buy it and the attack that the candidate “let Trump win” will be difficult to shake off. This is particularly relevant as the white man quotient in the Dem party continues to decline, raising ever more questions about why the party for which only a (shrinking) minority of white men vote and which is predominantly PoC and female should again elect a white male candidate, especially a loser, over a woman and/or minority who doesn’t have the black mark of “letting trump win” on her resume.
The polls are not favorable to the Democratic Party for now. Even though the economy is arguably fine, people don’t believe it’s fine, housing costs are increasingly unaffordable for many people etc. Newsom would find himself running a campaign built around defending the unpopular record of a mediocre president, including possibly an ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah depending on how that pans out by November. If Newsom runs against a Republican President or a Republican candidate after a GOP presidency, he can sell a purely optimistic vision without having to defend Biden’s record (he might have to defend his record in California, but most voters won’t care).
Trump still hasn’t built Trumpism into an actual movement that extends far beyond the personality cult when it comes to generating political figures who can take over his legacy. There are people who believe strongly in MAGA, certainly, but there are no incredible GOP candidates waiting for 2028. The non-Trump primary candidates this year were poor. Carlson probably won’t want to run and in any case still has a certain East Coast boarding school effete intellectual vibe to him, even with the log cabin studio. DeSantis is uncharismatic and greasy. There are options, but none of them seem likely to be close to as popular as Trump - certainly they are unlikely to have his pre-existing celebrity, wealth and talent for self-promotion. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see a Rubio return wrapped in a MAGA package, and that would be pretty dire. Gavin is stupid, but with enough training he would be fine against most likely GOP options in 2028.
The public’s desire for continuity often expires at the 8 year mark (if it does not do so earlier). A Democratic nominee who pulls off an upset and wins this year is going to be campaigning on 12 years of blue government in 2028, a proposal that hasn’t won in 70 years. The glory of a two-term presidency is much more easily attainable after the opposition is in power.
Amusingly, the only scenario in which Newsom would be smart to take over Biden’s candidacy would be if he genuinely believed that Biden was going to win. In that case, the 2028 race would be much harder for a Democratic candidate; Kamala would likely be the default pick for it’s her turn reasons and because Trump would have been safely defeated and probably too old and beleaguered to run again (allowing ideology to take precedence over raw candidate strength) and 16 straight years of Democratic control of the presidency seems very unlikely. If Biden wins, Newsom’s next good opportunity might be 2032 or even 2036, in which case he’d be 77 upon leaving office after 2 terms, and that seems like a slog.
And imprisoned. I think, if Trump loses, there's a very high chance he's found guilty in the Smith case and he goes to prison. That hanging over his head is probably a big reason he's so willing to listen to campaign advisors on so many things.
Worth noting that personally, I think he should be imprisoned, and for about one year, because he literally did do exactly what they are saying he did, with full knowledge that it was bad. Would be, I think, a great inspiration for holding people in power accountable for their actions.
As a practical matter, I probably would have preferred letting sleeping dogs lie, but once you start a case like that you might as well finish it? Does raise the possibility that it might have been smarter for Biden to pardon Trump for that case specifically. Actually, now that I think about it, that would have been a genius political move. And probably healthy for the country.
Committing a fraud on the US? I’m not so sure (and SCOTUS has read fraud narrowly). With Fischer gutting most of that indictment I think Trump is innocent in that case. Of course he was innocent in NY and we saw what happened there.
The [Jack] Smith case I assume was being referred to is the Florida classified info case, which by all accounts appears to be pretty open and shut. You only really need the recording where Trump shows the classified doc to an author, acknowledges it's highly classified, and how he can't declassify it any longer. Boom, done. Like, if you had to come up with a recording that contained literally every single allegation all in a two minute span, and proved them all, it would be this recording. On top of the willful retention stuff, and the hiding evidence stuff, which is not as ironclad but likely still supremely provable.
I thought OP was referencing the Smith case in DC. I concur that Trump appears to be guilty in Florida but that is the one case where you honestly might get jury nullification given the treatment of other high profile politicians not being tried on similarish fact patterns.
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