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Notes -
What's Biden's survival path? Manifold's currently putting him at 41% chance, but I'm not seeing a likely way for that to happen.
Things look to me like:
Democrats express displeasure.
Biden refuses to drop out.
Democrats adjust convention rules to free up delegates.
Delegates reject Biden.
Are people thinking that Democrats won't allow the convention to nominate someone other than Biden? Or that delegates will vote for Biden?
Neither of those seem especially likely to me, especially when Kamala's an easy default option to unify around, even if her reputation is that she's unpopular. So I guess I'm not seeing where it's coming from. Are there convention rules that are problematic? I'm wondering whether them meeting early due to the Ohio deadline being earlier is a factor, but Ohio moved it back, so they can just cancel their early meeting, right?
But, this is not the best development for the Trump campaign.
"Other party distracted by infighting over which of a smallish number of fairly unpopular candidates to chose until a couple of months before the election" seems like a pretty good development to me?
The problem (for Trump) is the Democrats might be able to find someone better than Biden or Harris. Democratic and swing voters will vote Democratic versus Trump unless the particular candidate is really, really bad. So the Democrats just need a nullity and they win. So probably not Harris, Clinton, or Buttigieg, but maybe Newsom or Whitmer (who have negatives but not quite so bad)
Kamala is the only person with democratic legitimacy to replace Biden. Everybody knows that the one job of the vice president is to take over if the president dies or quits. Everyone who voted for Biden had that understanding.
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